Nicasurfer

NFLX

2011-04-14T09:53:00.001-04:00

I am closing NFLX for a small gain at $238.75

SKF

2011-04-14T09:52:00.000-04:00

Buying the may $60 skf puts here for $3.30

NFLX

2011-04-08T12:39:00.001-04:00

I have opened a short line on NFLX at $239.75.

SLV

2011-04-08T09:53:00.000-04:00

Shorting a little SLV here at $39.23

FXE

2011-04-08T09:44:00.000-04:00

Shorting the FXE here today. I have been short since about $142.50 but i am adding to the short today.

NFLX

2011-04-06T12:06:00.002-04:00

It is so hard for me not to short this stock. I am so freaking bearish on NFLX it drives me crazy.

I am not short NFLX but i wouldn't be long either.

50% CASH

2011-04-06T11:14:00.002-04:00

I have raised a lot of cash with selling DF, Mpel, and some skf puts.

Gonna wait a little and see what shakes outs. Right now all the accounts are about 50% cash.

Bullish on the banks

2011-04-04T14:59:00.001-04:00

I don't think any good news will come out of the banking sector. That makes me bullish. Any bounce in the SKF or FAZ should be shorted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-03/wall-street-revenue-from-trading-seen-declining-fourth-consecutive-quarter.html

HPQ

2011-04-04T14:51:00.001-04:00

Selling some HPQ april 16 $40 puts

Sold 10% of MPEL

2011-04-04T13:27:00.001-04:00

I have sold about 10% of my MPEL position.

VXX and SKF

2011-03-25T11:03:00.002-04:00

Selling 25% of the VXX puts. I am looking to hold the rest of the puts through expiration because i want VXX put to me. I havn't been able to borrow any shares.

SKF, selling 25% of them here also. Same plan as above want to have the SKF put to me so i can hold it short

SKF

2011-03-18T09:41:00.001-04:00

Selling half of the SKF puts

SKF

2011-03-17T15:33:00.001-04:00

This thing is doomed longer term. I cannot find a gamble where the odds are in your favor long term ,but possibly against you short term.

The SKF will be below $50 by may 1st.

China and Japan

2011-03-17T14:34:00.002-04:00

Japan imports a lot of stuff from China. To now think, that Japan will import less after a major event like this is backward thinking.

If everything I owned was taken away from me wouldn't I start replacing these things. I think this is extremely bullish for China.

SKF

2011-03-17T13:48:00.001-04:00

Buying the October $52 skf puts

TBT

2011-03-17T12:45:00.001-04:00

Selling the TBT calls

VXX

2011-03-17T10:36:00.000-04:00

Selling half of the VXX puts purchased yesterday

TBT

2011-03-16T12:46:00.000-04:00

Buying the april $35 calls.

VXX

2011-03-16T11:34:00.001-04:00

Buying the April $35 vxx puts a boat load of them

Selling QQQQ puts

2011-03-15T08:30:00.001-04:00

Selling all my QQQQ puts today.

Oil

2011-02-28T18:27:00.001-05:00

I think the US is gonna become energy dependent. It may be a total farce but i believe we will be extremely creative.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41835533

Raising Some Cash

2011-02-28T08:22:00.001-05:00

I am gonna exit my amgn call today for a small gain. Also i am starting a hedgin strategy with the June 30th $60 QQQ puts.

Oil prices

2011-02-27T19:31:00.001-05:00

Oil prices in general are a precursor for volatility not a recssion. We are going to test long term support according to k wave theory. This should happen earlier than last year around june 2011.

We are not in a reccesion quite yet, The united states is completetly fine $100-$110dollar oil. If we close below $100 on monday it would be quite bullish.

AAPL

2011-02-24T10:12:00.001-05:00

Closing AAPL short for a loss

AMGN

2011-02-24T10:08:00.000-05:00

Buying the March $50 calls at $1.79

Healthy Put Buying

2011-02-24T09:07:00.002-05:00

There was some serious put buying yesterday. If we have another day of this type of put buying it would confirm a short term bottom.

AAPL

2011-02-23T11:20:00.000-05:00

I am shorting a small portion of AAPL.

DF

2011-02-22T14:53:00.001-05:00

Adding to Dean Foods around $10.10

COIN

2011-02-22T13:16:00.000-05:00

I started my first position at $.36

MPEL

2011-02-22T08:04:00.003-05:00

Just reported earnings and although they met all expectations the big kicker is that they grew revenues 93.3% in 2010 compared to 2009. They are attributing this to the opening of City of Dreams project. Which was only open for 6 months out of the year.

Now for 2011 it will be open for the entire year. This should easily put a .07-.08 earnings per a share price tag for MPEL going forward.

This should raise the price target to $10-$12 for 2011.

TLT

2011-02-22T07:30:00.002-05:00

I was expecting to wake up and see the TLT trading at $92-$93 area. This isn't the case. I am now of the belief that no matter how bad the worlds economy gets the general public does not want goverment debt.

This could be a short opportunity to buy the TLT. I am looking very close at this trade again. There is now way i could be short the TLT here which makes me think to go long.

Over 50% increase in sales

2011-02-21T15:52:00.000-05:00

http://www.convertedorganics.com/

This company is in a stealth bull market

COIN

2011-02-21T15:34:00.001-05:00

I am creating a position in the above company

Social Mood

2011-02-21T08:00:00.002-05:00

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/18/Moody-Blogs-and-Tweets-Give-Hints-about-Financial-Markets.aspx

Trying to quantify the social mood all i can say is this. Everyone is expecting a correction includeing myself. There are a lot of people dying to get back into the market. So if we test support it should be bought.

Current Market

2011-02-19T09:41:00.001-05:00

I believe the psychology of the market is: We are gonna have a correction and when that comes i am all in. Every one wants in no matter the costs. That being said i believe it is a stock pickers market.

My largest holding in order are as follows
MPEL
DF
HBAN
SKF january 2012 $15 puts
NOK

When looking over these investments (I know the Puts are crazy idea but i believe 2011 is the year of the banks) i don't feel like the valuations are that far stretched.

Look at a Weekly chart of Dean Foods. At $10 bucks this thing is a steal. If food prices come down which they will this companies margins will go ricter and they have some serious pricing power.

Melcro Crown, this is a pure Macau play on the casinos. I currently believe that this one is on the verge of an upside breakout. China is starting a secular bull market very similiar to the united states in the late 70's. The chinese are in love with macau and so am i. Google map the city it is really cool place and will be an international destination for years to come. Melcro made money lasy quarter and report on wednesday. I belive they are going to blow out the numbers. I am buyer if they show any weaknes.

The banks are sitting in a sweet spot. They are flush with cash and able to borrow next to nothing and lend out at a higher interest rate. This isn't changing any time soon. The big money has been purchasing some large amounts of the C $5 september calls.

Currently have about 25% cash for this correction that the market needs. I read somewhere if it is a flash crash it would be in the bulls favor.

Gap Down

2011-02-17T16:24:00.001-05:00

We have been gapping down every morning lately. I am trying a trade with spy puts before the close and spy calls at 10am. It has worked two days in a row. Lets see about tommorrow.

Line in the Sand

2011-02-17T14:28:00.002-05:00

If the bears can get a close below $233.94 i think the bull run is over for Netflix

Fund Flows

2011-02-16T17:20:00.001-05:00

Funds are flowing out of bonds and into everything except bonds and bonds.

A nice mini scare would be nice to open a short on the TLT

Nokia

2011-02-11T13:34:00.001-05:00

I have bought more nokia at $9.30

NOK

2011-02-11T10:00:00.001-05:00

I buying Nokia for a trade today. $9.55

Netflix

2011-02-04T11:06:00.001-05:00

This thing is in a world of its own. I give up number two. I will stay way from Netflix the stock and simply use the service.

David Tepper

2011-02-04T08:30:00.003-05:00

I have been following Tepper's fund. Some of his largest holdings are Dean Foods Df and Goodrich Tire. In a round about away I believe that he thinks we are headed for stagflation. This may seem contrary ,but these companies have been deeply discounted due to high input costs. Wheat, Cotton, and Rubber setting in some cases all time highs. These companies have had to raise prices to meet this challenge. If they get any type of lower input cost this could greatly increase profits.

Very rarely do you see the price of something going down. Once that box of cereal is $4.00 bucks rarely do the reduce the price even if input costs decrease.

MPEL

2011-02-04T07:49:00.001-05:00

Melcro Crown reports after the bell. I sold calls against the position in january and had them expire worthless. This is my largest holding in the portfolio. Currently, I am looking to sell the position and replace that with the january $5.00 2013 calls. This will help me leverage the position and reduce risk.

Beating a Dead Horse

2011-02-02T15:28:00.004-05:00

I hate to keep remarking on the same thing over and over again. In addition, i have done extensive research into the online TV viewing experience. Netflix is in big trouble. Not because the service is bad or inferior. The reason is competition. There are a lot of players coming into the market.

I have reopened a short line on NFLX with the March $210 puts. I currently got in around $12.00.

Time Warner came out publicly saying Netflix is paying enough for the shows. This will eat into margins,

Ford

2011-02-02T13:53:00.003-05:00

I am selling the $15 feb 19 puts

Doug Kass

2011-02-02T09:08:00.002-05:00

He sure does know how to predict stuff. This egypt unrest has me thinking of him today.

Out of NFLX

2011-01-28T12:59:00.000-05:00

Can't take it anymore. Will live to fight another day. Clearing NFLX puts

Betting the Farm

2011-01-27T13:35:00.004-05:00

Ok i have bet the farm on the March $210 puts on netflix. This will either make or break Nicasurfer.

We have AMZN reporting tonight an i expect some ideas on how they are going to be getting into the subscription business with the Love Film aquisition.

In addition we also have window dressing ending today which could some serious negative effects on this stock.

NFLX

2011-01-26T16:17:00.000-05:00

Looking to open a large short position tommorrow

New Exciting Stock

2011-01-23T08:58:00.002-05:00

Well not really. PSUN is a growing retailer that has started to add international exposure. The insiders are buying it and they have been consistently beating earnings.

The chart looks good on the weekly, they currently distrubute Hurley, Volcom, Billabong, and basically everything surfing related.

The most fun thing is they have been beating and growing earnings.

FXE or the Euro

2011-01-21T14:28:00.003-05:00

Buying the FXE March $140 puts for $5.60 on the euro. Something has a got to give either we abandon the dollar or move to the remenbi. This is a low risk high reward play in book.

VXX

2011-01-21T12:27:00.002-05:00

Picking up some VXX puts here for a day trade the Feb $32 puts for $2.45.

This thing is so much fun to trade because it always goes down.

Spike Low CCI

2011-01-21T09:09:00.003-05:00

Typically a spike low creates a large risk reward for a bear flag. This thing is going lower. It may not be today but it is soon.

GOOG

2011-01-20T16:19:00.002-05:00

Boy has this been painful. The price action in after hours is about as bearish as it gets. Really looking forward to seeing this guy tommorrow.

SLV and BIDU

2011-01-20T13:48:00.001-05:00

Clearing my SLV and BIDU short

I am looking to add a VXX put position into the portfolio

Amzn buying Lovefilm

2011-01-20T06:04:00.002-05:00

Streaming is starting to get some competition. If anything with Amazon buying Lovefilm they now have the corner on the European market. Now all they have to do is bring it over to the United States. Which won't cost very much money at all.

Good Luck Netflix shareholders.

Puke

2011-01-14T15:48:00.001-05:00

It sure does feel like everyone is puking up their shorts at the close

Buy the Dip

2011-01-14T11:07:00.001-05:00

I am seriously wondering how much longer this can go on. There is far more risk on the long side than on the short side. We made new nominal highs today.

GOOG

2011-01-14T10:03:00.001-05:00

Is at longterm weekly resistance today

Short Interest

2011-01-14T08:39:00.001-05:00

http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=014l2221

Shares Available

2011-01-14T08:12:00.001-05:00

Looks like there are some shares available to short for NFLX. The stock hit my target of $190 and I will look to add to my short position today.

Streaming Choices

2011-01-14T05:40:00.001-05:00

http://www.voip-sol.com/the-best-netflix-alternatives/

Sleep

2011-01-12T12:40:00.001-05:00

I have been getting very little sleep do to a nagging cough. I have been extremely worried about the markets. A correction is needed! This type of straight up action isn't healthy.

CSX

2011-01-10T11:00:00.000-05:00

Shorting some CSX at $67.84

Spy

2011-01-10T07:28:00.003-05:00

A. We had a new spike high on the CCI, which looks like an exhaustive style spike. We did make a nominal new high.

B. A new spike low towards 181 on the CCI tends to mark a new trend for the short term a low target of $118 should be expected.

C. Gap support around $126

I am looking to short the SPY today on early morning strength.

Intra Day Chart

2011-01-08T11:11:00.003-05:00

NFLX had a spike low on the CCI followed by a new low. Then recently we had a spike high on the CCI leading us to where we are now. What we need is a new high around the $190 area to start adding to the short position again.

There are major outside factors affecting this company. I have stated them numerous times in my blog post. The current multiples are not sustainable and studios wanting higher fees and increased competition are serious factors. The only variable before had been buyout speculation. This point has been taken into account and I believe at these valuations it is not possible. Google, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and others don't want the distribution they want the content rights. With all of these contracts coming up for renewal and NFLX faces higher costs and increased competition.

As said in other post I am short NFLX even though I think it could reach $190.

Second Time Frame Daily

2011-01-08T11:01:00.003-05:00

Above is the Daily Chart:

We had a spike on the CCI, which almost always leads to a new high. In this case we did have a new high which was on 12/1/2010. We have now moved downwards with a nice bullish divergence on the MACD histogram. My theory is that a new price high would a be perfect short entry. I believe the short term, 1-2 weeks could be up for NFLX. Thats what the charts are telling us.

Currently I am short from $181.00 looking to short more.

3 Phases of Bull Market

2011-01-08T10:43:00.004-05:00

I currently believe that NFLX is in the final stages of a bull market. I am looking at three time frames.

First is the weekly:

I have outlined a couple of key points for this on the chart, the most important aspect of the graph is that we have 3 distinct phases of this bull.

Something to consider in the final stage of a bull market:

"During this phase, a lot of attention should be placed on signs of weakness in the trend, such as strengthening downward moves. Also, if the upward moves start to show weakness, it could be another sign that the trend may be near the start of a primary downtrend."

BIDU

2011-01-07T12:15:00.001-05:00

I am entering a BIDU short at $105.15

Banks

2011-01-07T11:02:00.001-05:00

They are selling off hard today

How many dollars can they print?

2011-01-06T15:35:00.002-05:00

Well it seems that the US may default on their debt. We all know this will not happen. One thing for certain is that they will raise the debt limit and put in place some lie austerity program.

All in all more dollars will printed and prices are going to go up. Maybe they will argue a little and let everyone get real scared. Drive the VIX up to 40 so i can short VXX with $100k in puts. Wouldn't that be nice!

GOOG

2011-01-06T14:42:00.001-05:00

I have added to my Google short position at $613.56

BIDU

2011-01-06T08:53:00.001-05:00

This stock has hit my $105 dollar price target today. I may open a short position on the stock today

Netflix again

2011-01-06T05:24:00.005-05:00

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-turner-chief-explains-how-tv-industry-will-neutralize-netflix/

http://blogs.forbes.com/dorothypomerantz/2011/01/03/could-netflix-buy-starz/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/244956-netflix-acquiring-starz-why#comments_header

There are to many headwinds for this stock for me not to short it. I see the major hurdle on two fronts.

1. The dollar amount that Netflix paid for content is coming up for renewal. They are going to have increases or have to buy Starz. This comes in at estimates around $75-$85 billion. This is half the enterprise value of the entire Netflix empire. So imagine the stock cut in half.

2. Competition: The barriers to entry for this product are not very high and some big names are looking to benefit. It isn't the distribution that the big names want it is the content. I don't see Netflix as a take over target anymore for this very reason.

Conclusion:

The stock is priced for perfection. They currently have a mini monopoly which will not last. I think Apple and Google are to smart to buy this company. So I am short Netflix.

GOOG

2011-01-05T16:12:00.002-05:00

Ticker : GOOG
Name : Google Inc
Filer : Doerr L John
Title : Director

Document Type : 4
Date : 2011-01-03
Action : Sold
Transaction Shares : 27,640
Current Market Value : $16,669,062

I have stated this for a long time Google is the most sold stock by insiders. That is where my short thesis is stemming from. This and that the margins will be hurt by competition.

QQQQ

2011-01-05T16:05:00.001-05:00

I think the downside risk is far greater than the upside risk. I am staying short currently. Really didn't understand everything that happened with GOOG today i am researching it.

ADX

2011-01-05T15:39:00.000-05:00

We are at a 13 adx reading for the QQQQ. We are gonna move on way or another.

Today

2011-01-05T11:55:00.000-05:00

I think we have made the highs for the day. I am loaded up on QQQQ $56 puts for a day trade.

SLV

2011-01-05T09:59:00.000-05:00

Clearing another 25% of SLV short here

NFLX

2011-01-05T09:12:00.000-05:00

Yoku has announced they are streaming video with Time Warner. I am gonna short NFLX today at the open.

SLV

2011-01-04T12:31:00.001-05:00

I am taking 25% off the table in profits on my SLV short.

S.Korea Lee Calls for Effort to Contain Inflation

2011-01-04T06:12:00.001-05:00

We have an inflationary problem in South Korea combined with a domestic problem to the North. I cannot help ,but short this market with puts on the EWY.

This is an article posted on CNBC.com today

Some Technical Data for 1/03/2010

2011-01-04T06:03:00.002-05:00

It feels like a big lie. I can't help but think that way i must have read it somewhere. Anyways here we go.

Yesterday we had 373 new highs and 2 new lows bringing the ratio to .0054, this is the lowest i have seen in a long time and is extremely rare. I believe that a yearly high or at least a 6 month high was made yesterday.

Richard Russell's PTI indicator was 52, another very rare feat. I use this indicator as an overbought over sold indicator. This print is in the RED overbought range. Meaning extreme caution.

Call buying was insane. Posting huge volumes with an equity only putt call ratio of .43, another rare number.

All in all yesterday was RARE and shorting strength is a good strategy from here on out.

Wow

2011-01-03T16:13:00.002-05:00

I took it a little on the chin today and if EWY doesn't work out in the next two days will exit the puts. I believe that Gold and Silver may be good short candidate for the next 6 months. The action in both of them was quite bearish today.

I also noticed how NFLX was not able to close above $180 and BIDU not above $100.

MPEL

2010-12-31T11:08:00.001-05:00

My core holding MPEL is surging today

EWY

2010-12-31T10:55:00.001-05:00

I am long the February $60 puts for EWY,

I also shorted the SLV today at $29.90 and 30.16

SentimenTrader.com

2010-12-31T06:03:00.004-05:00

Courtesy of Sentimen Trader: What an indicator above, i wish this site would post this indicator on a regular basis. The liquidity premium is the ratio of people who would rather hold the spy instead of the individual stocks (For liquidity purposes). You can see when this has been near the top of the range it has been a rather good indicator for picking tops in the market.

Silver

2010-12-31T05:58:00.003-05:00

I am of the thought that Silver is a bad investment for 2011. I do believe gold will follow but i believe that silver has more downside risk. I am going to start shorting the SLV today. We are showing strength this morning and will open the first entry around $29.90

South Korea

2010-12-31T05:49:00.001-05:00

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40858662

It looks as if the Bank will be raising interest rates to fight off inflation. When China did the first rate hike we had 8% downside. I have been looking at shorting the EWY lately and think i will put this position on today.

Facebook IPO

2010-12-30T16:26:00.001-05:00

I believe that some funds will start freeing up cash to participate in the Facebook IPO which isn't even scheduled yet. It is coming they don't have a choice. This should pose a threat to large cap growth stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, and NFLX.

Netflix, GOOG, and AAPL

2010-12-30T06:16:00.002-05:00

The big question is whether Google or Apple is going to buy Netflix or do it on there own. I believe Apple goes it alone and Google attempts to buy. This would be negative for Google who would end up being the loser.

Yes Google would ad to its ever growing empire ,but all in all would be a negative for the stock price. This streaming video is just getting started and there will be a lot of competition. If no one buys Netflix it sees under $100 by mid 2011.

Currently I am short Google.

Netflix

2010-12-29T15:13:00.001-05:00

Is extremely oversold here and a bounce is do. I am closing my $200 march puts here and will look to reenter later.

Sun Times Article on Netflix and Sears

2010-12-29T05:23:00.000-05:00

Sears introduces movie download service as Netflix rival

Sears said today it has launched a video download web site called Alphaline Entertainment that will let users download movies the day they are released on DVD or Blu-ray.
The site, alphaline.roxionow.com, runs on a platform run by licensee partner Sonic Solutions and its RoxioNow service. Sonic Solutions, based in Novato, Calif., concentrates on selling movies through retailers.
Separately, Sears said it will honor an unspecified number of gift cards that online shoppers obtained for 50 percent off because of a computer glitch Sunday night, the retailer said Tuesday. Sears canceled the erroneously discounted gift cards that had not yet been activated.
—Sandra Guy

Wow!

2010-12-28T13:19:00.001-05:00

Just read that Sears is starting a moving download business

FXI

2010-12-28T08:59:00.001-05:00

Gonna be looking at my FXI calls today for a loss. China has been going down a lot lately and it has a lot to do with the tightening and inflation controls.

Gonna close them on strength today.

CHK

2010-12-27T11:13:00.001-05:00

Selling covered calls against my CHK position

F

2010-12-27T10:59:00.000-05:00

I am selling covered calls against my F position.

NFLX and Comcast

2010-12-24T08:39:00.003-05:00

I have been totally wired into the Netflix craze. I love netflix and believe their product kicks ass. Why doesn't comcast say this to all their users this," We are going to offer you unlimited On-Demand movies for an additional $7 dollars a month." This would create some competition for ole NFLX.

I believe it will happen sooner than later. This will create a mass exodus out of the stock and turn some contrary investors into overnight millionaires. Currently my 30 minute 10 day chart for Netflix is bearish. We have had a spike down on the CCI to -247.28, with the stock then attempting to rally. If we get a gap up on Monday I believe it could be an unbelievable shorting opportunity.

Disclosure: I own March $200 puts on NFLX as of close on thursday.

FXI

2010-12-23T12:06:00.002-05:00

I am buying some FXI $42 calls for $1.40, We are sitting right on the 200 ema and a are oversold lets see if we can get a bounce.

EWZ

2010-12-22T15:18:00.000-05:00

I am selling EWZ at $74.00, i am very nervous about being long anything right now.