A Bear Omen?

http://bearmarketnews.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/wall-street-sequel-is-an-omen-of-u-s-collapse/

Today

Watching CNBC is great. This morning a gentleman who is extremely successful and has been for 15 years said no matter what the stock market is going up. Basically the economy will get better or the fed will print money until it gets better. The market was up big today. A mutual fund monday could be on the table. If we get a gap up i will short around 10:00am to fade the move. I will also buy more UUP and look at the january 2012 20 calls.

I am also looking CAT and AAPL a little closer. These are small positions for me i have been shorting in 25 share lots. My largest position is SLV short, VXX long, FCX short, and PF changs puts.

Take a look at SGG weekly chart. I am very tempted to open a large short position.

More Supply

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39351472

This will add more supply to the market.

I just finished watching Wall Street 2. One thing i noticed was the importance placed on the economy. I personally think the story sucked ,but the way the movie depicted the financial crisis was very interesting.

Everybody is in!

It sure feels like everyone is in. I am 100% short and looking to go on margin. Will wait until monday.

GM

A report saying that they will be pricing an IPO at the low end of the spectrum to attract retail investors. This is bearish.

The Dollar Again

It looks to have held support and should be a pivotal turning point for the day. There is a lot of economic news coming in today.

GOLD

Man there is a lot of euphoria around gold. I can't help but wonder if i went with a 1 ounce gold coin to buy stuff would it be accepted as currency. Richard Russell, Jim Rogers, and others claim that this should be looked at as a bullish signal. Currently i don't know. This commodity is in an uptrend and i am starting to nibble short with DZZ.

QE

I think a lot of people are getting the fed wrong here. There was no more talk of quanitative easing. The fed is gonna keep buying treasurys and keep interest rates low. This could be the best opportunity to short gold. I am currently short silver.

$$

Looking to get long the Dollar. Will be buying on any weakness tommorrow. Currently i am 100% sh0rt select stocks and long some puts. Will looking at long dated uup calls

Barry Ritholtz and Capn

The bull case:

-M&A: It was fucking heavy today, did you see appl and goog. Short covering out the ass. Everybody was buying everybody.

-Cash buybacks, it sure seemed to me that every ompany thought thier company was cheap today. Sure thing i want 5 billion shares of xyz after it is up 10%. Cash buy backs take time and isn't a timing tool. Cash buy backs are on in full force and eat up supply.

-KOL broke out today

-Spy broke out today

-GDX made a marginal high

-GLD hitting all time highs

-Silver showing strength



The bear case:

-insider selling at an all time high. Really high i might add.

-GDX didn't make a new high

-Bonds are showing unusal strength

- Unemployment is extremely elevated

-Pretty much all economic indicators point to a double dip. CCI, LCRI, ***** etc

-Dollar is yet to break down

-I sure am hearing about a lot of IPO's in china. Do the chinese think it is a good time to raise capital. Fuck?


If you have been follwoing me lately you are way down. I sure am, the technicals look horrid and i am shooting my last bit of bullets on the short side. The one thing i am sure of is this. If you invested $100,000 in CAT right now you would have $60,000 in march 2011.

Lets all spend are money at PF Changs tommorrow.

100% short

I am 100% short as of right now. I have added to GOOG and AAPL. It has been very ugly the past week and i feel like a pull back is inevitable. The call buying is extreme right now.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Sugar

If we are in such an inflationary enviroment then why is sugar selling off so hard today. Also why are bonds showing such strength?

GOOG

Reshorting GOOG at $497.5

CAT

Another small portion of CAT short at $73.40

Doug Kass

I guess he was about to jump up and down and short.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39232968

FCX and AAPL

X united states steel missed and was downgraded by Goldman sachs. How can the equites almost shoot straight to the moon and these steel companies be missing. This cannot last.

I have more orders to short FCX but adding here $83.10

Also shorting more AAPL at $276.50

Sticking with the Plan

You see the action in PF changs! Wow what a pop.

I am sticking with my plan. AAPL, GDX, VXX, FCX are all in the dog house. Tops take time, insider selling is at an all time high bonds are showing unusual strength. We are in era of stagflation or deflation. The everything needs to deflate so people can pay to eat and live. Equities will suffer!

All of the steel makers are missing Fed ex missed and that is more important the jobless claims. The current portfolio is about 70% short. I am looking to go 150% short (margin) by the monday if we get a large gap up. If we crash from here (i don't think will happen) then i will simply take profits.

University of Pheonix

My good friend works for the above school and he agrees with the article below.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39194343

Short em! I say.

AA and NUE

If these guys are missing it is all overbought. I can't believe we don't have what his name from seabreeze partners jumping up and down on cnbc. I know why. We don't have cnbc here in the jungle. I think the fine gent is Doug Kass.

The Yen

The yen has been seen as a safe haven. A place where your money will gain value in an inflationary enviroment. The japanese have interviened in the currency markets trying to lower the value of the yen helping exports. This could have people flock to the dollar or gold. Gold just hit a new all time high and this currency intervention is a good reason for it.

I would not short TLT here. I am gonna sell my TBT here and close my covered calls and my puts. It was an good trade and i think we need to wait and see what happens in bonds for a nice NEW entry.

YCS

Buying some YCS at $17.51 if the goverment says they will sell it then sell it.

Mutual Funds All in!

http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

SLV

Lucky enough to short some more SLV this morning at $19.88. Currently my net worth is 60% short the market. Mostly through precious metals and miners. CAT, PFCB, AND AAPL are other short holdings

FCX

Shorting FCX at $81.64

CAT

I am short more CAT at $71.98

50%

The entire portfolio consist of 50% short as of today. A little timid to get much larger than this, although most of my short exposure is in precious metals and miners who have been not able to break to new highs. Most of my GDX and SLV closed green.

PF Changs

Why is this upscale chinese eatery hitting 52 week highs? Buying the oct $50 puts for $3.60

TBT

Buying $34 september puts for my TBT holdings and selling TBT calls covered. So basically selling the Calls to purchase the puts.

CAT

Shorting more CAT at $71.00

AAPL

Shorting aapl at $266

Getting Short

I am about 25% net short as of now. I really like the how the miners have been unable to make new highs. I am gonna look for this trend to break before adding to my short position. I feel like GDX could make a new nominal high for the year.

Going to sell september TBT calls if we have major strength today for TBT. Looking at the $33 dollar september calls

sold aapl calls

I sold my aapl 260 calls for a nice gain. Still long the aapl $250 october puts. Adding to the position with half the gain from the calls.

Short CAT

shorting cat at $69.50 looking for $60 quick

AAPL

Will more than likely sell my AAPL Sept $260 call on tuesday if we gap up. Which i really hope we do.

This trade at least paid for the AAPL $250 oct put. So if we get any downside from here until oct opex the entire trade should pay nicely. So a 100% gain and zero loss is on the table for a possibilty. Who wouldn't play that game.

VXX

I am placing a ladder of orders to purchase VXX. Buying some here at $20.06 placing a profit exit at $30.00. We have moved 6% in two days, this market is pretty stretched short term. Betting against the herd!

Currently have orders at $19.75, $19.25, $18.75, $18.00; The share amount increases on the way down and so does the profit exit.

GLD, GDX, SLV (AAPL)

I am purchasing a small amount of the october out of the money puts for GLD, GDX, and SLV. Hedging against my TBT long.

Playing a straddle on AAPL with sept 260 calls and the october 250 puts

I am still bearish on TLT and TBT is a longer term play. May purchase puts on this when TBT moves a large amount.