Monday, November 30, 2009
Final Trade
Bonds were on fire into the close. Also the overall bullishness leading into the last 5 minutes lead me to open some SPY Puts. I took on a large position and we will see if it plays out. One of the main factors was the use of "Resilency" I kept hearing that word today. Also the last 2 bars on the spy 5 minute chart were huge sell bars with volume. Bought the January $109 puts for $3.20 each. Still have my UNG and TBT although they may be a wash.
TBT
Buying some $45.00 TBT calls here. Really think TLT is very short term overbought. December $45 dollar strike.
Joe Terranova
As far as I'm concerned, the resiliency of this market on Monday says to me the bull market remains in tact, muses Joe Terranova. There were plenty of reasons for stocks to trade much lower and they're off the lows.
This statement above makes me want to short the market.
This statement above makes me want to short the market.
UNG and Market
Cannot seem to get my hand on the market today. I still have UNG and will hold overnight. I think for now the safest place is cash and let the market decide the outcome. I simply can't see the market selling off here before the end of the year. I don't see it going higher though also. We are aproaching oversold and the put buying is extreme. The best thing for now is to sit on the sidelines with my huge profit from last week.
Put Call
There are some extreme put buying here which makes me want to get long.
Also a large number of GLD puts were purchased way out of the money $100 dollar strike december 2009.
Also a large number of GLD puts were purchased way out of the money $100 dollar strike december 2009.
$TICK
Gonna watch the $TICK at the open. If we open down and have a positive $TICK i will close shorts immediately. This means that only a small part of the stocks are holding the market down. If we open up and have a negative $TICK i would hold until i can get out of shorts at a reasonable exit.
The German DAX opened up and quickly sold off. I suspect the US markets will follow suit.
The German DAX opened up and quickly sold off. I suspect the US markets will follow suit.
DAX
With the German DAX being down i thinking we may trade lower today and bounce on tuesday.
Buying UNG on the way down here. Best purchase was $9.28
Buying UNG on the way down here. Best purchase was $9.28
Lunar Trading
We have a full moon coming up. The trend has been to short on the new moon go long on the full moon. I am going to cover my shorts and look to re short at a better period. I am picking up UNG premarket at $9.48 it signaled a buy when the 10ema crossed the 20sma on the 30day hourly chart. On the daily we are above the 10 ema on the weekly we have a bullish divergence with MACD lines and histogram. Also volume is subsiding on the way down which is a bottoming signal to me.
Longer term i think we can look to short the market really hard after January 6th. Will probably do some day trading. Hopefully we can get a maximum overbought scenario in the next couple of weeks. This will set up to be the best shorting opportunity of the year.
Longer term i think we can look to short the market really hard after January 6th. Will probably do some day trading. Hopefully we can get a maximum overbought scenario in the next couple of weeks. This will set up to be the best shorting opportunity of the year.
Weakness
If we have any weakness on the open i will look to close some of my small short position.
Currently i am looking at UUP calls. The january $22 strike.
Currently i am looking at UUP calls. The january $22 strike.
Friday, November 27, 2009
The dollar
The dollar is the most shorted currency. I think this little scare will make traders close the short dollar positions. I have closed my UNG calls for a scalp and i am opening AAPL $200 December puts and $110 spy puts. Gonna open small positions here and larger positions on Monday.
Nice friday going shopping on black friday
Well that is the most money i have ever made in one day. Closed all my short positions. Went long UNG december $9.00 calls.
Other than UNG i do own VXX in my retirement account. This little bounce should set up for some more short positions.
Other than UNG i do own VXX in my retirement account. This little bounce should set up for some more short positions.
New highs and new lows
Sitting here reading the wall street journal with my ruler. Marty Schwartz in pit bull recommended measuring the new high new lows for the NYSE. When the new highs measure over 12" it is time to get short. Well it is way over 12" and i am gonna get more short.
Watching the futures make a come back and i have sold my triple short ETF's. Gonna add to my spy puts today. Think we are setting up nicely to get even more short!!
Wanted to take some profits this morning. Will look to add when i think the market is short term overbought. Which could happen by 10:00am.
Watching the futures make a come back and i have sold my triple short ETF's. Gonna add to my spy puts today. Think we are setting up nicely to get even more short!!
Wanted to take some profits this morning. Will look to add when i think the market is short term overbought. Which could happen by 10:00am.
Gold
Gonna watch gold and gold mining shares. The miners have been under performing the actual gold bullion. Will look to sell short GLD here shortly and go long DZZ. Currently have DZZ but would like to add to the winning position.
11-26-09
Need to figuire out whether to take profits or let it ride over the weekend. This is a damn good problem. All of the losses over the last two months are instantly erased.
Feeling pretty damn good
Feeling pretty damn good
Thursday, November 26, 2009
11-26-09
I really think gold hit all time high "short term yesterday. " It looked like a blow off top to me. Also the dollar looked like it a blow off bottom.
I added to my short positions yesterday and i am 180% short. I have leverage in my margin accounts so i can borrow money to increase my gains(or losses)My wife's accounts are now 100% short also through triple leveraged ETF'S. This is so she can benefit at 3 times without the margin. I added the last bit of money for her yesterday into VXX. We bought 400 shares at $37.95.
Reading the international news Dubai is defaulting on their debt. This is huge and all foreign indices are selling off hard and the dollar is rallying. We are in a global market and this will effect us come Friday and Monday.
Happy Thanksgiving
I added to my short positions yesterday and i am 180% short. I have leverage in my margin accounts so i can borrow money to increase my gains(or losses)My wife's accounts are now 100% short also through triple leveraged ETF'S. This is so she can benefit at 3 times without the margin. I added the last bit of money for her yesterday into VXX. We bought 400 shares at $37.95.
Reading the international news Dubai is defaulting on their debt. This is huge and all foreign indices are selling off hard and the dollar is rallying. We are in a global market and this will effect us come Friday and Monday.
Happy Thanksgiving
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Goldman Sachs
The market is up 50 points and people are selling Goldman Sachs. This is americas bank? What is going on now. There are so many bearish divergences.
Russell not making new highs
Banks not helping with this rally
MACD and MACD histogram along with RSI diverging on the daily basis
The put/call ratio is in favor of the bulls. Which i take as a bearish indicator
Russell not making new highs
Banks not helping with this rally
MACD and MACD histogram along with RSI diverging on the daily basis
The put/call ratio is in favor of the bulls. Which i take as a bearish indicator
VXX
Wish i could buy VXX here. It goes against my margin call and i am leveraged to the max with $VIX call options. Gonna open down a little here with the account.
11-24-09
Something isn't right here with the market. There is just to many bulls and the bonds have been on fire. I don't care if the employment numbers are better than expected.
The stock market and bonds can't keep going up together. Something has got to give!!!!
The stock market and bonds can't keep going up together. Something has got to give!!!!
11-24-09
Gold makes a new high dollar is low again. When this thing unravels it is gonna be nasty. The fed realeased minutes and the rhetoric was very bearish.
Don't think we will move to much short term here. I expect some kind of move on monday.
We have unemployment numbers today it will be interesting to see if we get >500,000.
Huge buyer of BAC and GE calls yesterday.
Don't think we will move to much short term here. I expect some kind of move on monday.
We have unemployment numbers today it will be interesting to see if we get >500,000.
Huge buyer of BAC and GE calls yesterday.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
11-24-09
Some thoughts:
China sold off hard last night. I stayed up late watching the action. They were down 3.3%
Put/call ration was .5 yesterday. So that is 2 to 1 calls. This is a bearish indicator
We broke out to a new high on the DOW and no other index made a new high
Oil went down as the dollar tanked
Gold made a new high then sold off in the last 5 minutes 1%
Bonds rallied into the close and made new highs in after hours
Right now the futures are up. This could be a nice shorting opportunity. Everyone is waiting on the GDP revision. We have that coming out at 8:30am. After this we have employment numbers coming out on wednesday.
China sold off hard last night. I stayed up late watching the action. They were down 3.3%
Put/call ration was .5 yesterday. So that is 2 to 1 calls. This is a bearish indicator
We broke out to a new high on the DOW and no other index made a new high
Oil went down as the dollar tanked
Gold made a new high then sold off in the last 5 minutes 1%
Bonds rallied into the close and made new highs in after hours
Right now the futures are up. This could be a nice shorting opportunity. Everyone is waiting on the GDP revision. We have that coming out at 8:30am. After this we have employment numbers coming out on wednesday.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
11-21-09
Just finished reading Robert Prechters November issue of the Theorist. I wanted to sum it up by heading.
Markets- The smart money is leaving the market and we are about to turn down into wave three. We currently are in primary wave 2. We have had our highest reading on gold bullishness.
Inviduals are begging to invest into municpal bonds. This is a bad idea because the bonds may not be able to be paid back by the counties and states that wrote them. Don't own muni bonds!
Banks are in trouble because of mortgage deliquencies. They have lent to many people who can't repay the loan. These people are walking from the loans. This is even happening if the person can repay the loan. This leads the bank with the loan which has deflated in value creating a deflationary scenario.
Banks have been lending more to consumers than to business which is a mistake.
10% of all loans are done by private firms or individuals. The rest or 90% are done by the goverment.
www.elliottwave.com make sure to check out the website and suscribe.
Markets- The smart money is leaving the market and we are about to turn down into wave three. We currently are in primary wave 2. We have had our highest reading on gold bullishness.
Inviduals are begging to invest into municpal bonds. This is a bad idea because the bonds may not be able to be paid back by the counties and states that wrote them. Don't own muni bonds!
Banks are in trouble because of mortgage deliquencies. They have lent to many people who can't repay the loan. These people are walking from the loans. This is even happening if the person can repay the loan. This leads the bank with the loan which has deflated in value creating a deflationary scenario.
Banks have been lending more to consumers than to business which is a mistake.
10% of all loans are done by private firms or individuals. The rest or 90% are done by the goverment.
www.elliottwave.com make sure to check out the website and suscribe.
11-21-09
Do you ever feel "de ja vou". One of the main reasons i write this blog is to track my thoughts. Currently i feel like oil is gold back in 2008. Remember oil is going to go to $300 dollars a barrel. I sure do and that is where gold is now. Gold is going to have a nasty decline and I wouldn't bebuying it here or shorting it. The time to short gold is when everyone and their brother buys it and it has what i call a blow off top. That is when the shorts get a nasty sqeeze and it goes to $1300-$1500 an ounce. This will most likely coincide with a top in equities and the start of a nasty bear market. We will see that happen and that will be clue to short gold and the equity markets.
We are very close to that now.
We are very close to that now.
11-21-09
Below is a big post. It shows the specific companies of insider selling. It has a link to J3SG services. The service you can sign up for is free.
Daily Summary- Sell View
J3SG
Created : November 20, 2009, 10:00 pm
Ticker
Company Name
Last Close
Sells Today
People Selling
Total Shares Traded
Total Value Sold
3 Month Sells
Sells
People
Shares
DG
Dollar General Corp
23.21
4
4
19,350,057
$395,958,657
0
0
0
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
33.28
2
2
6,000,000
$193,500,000
0
0
0
ABVT
Abovenet Inc
53.57
1
1
720,000
$37,728,000
11
3
114,509
URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc
32.18
6
3
792,904
$26,223,058
6
3
1,730,000
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc
49.51
1
1
300,000
$14,872,830
12
8
763,486
LNCR
Lincare Holdings Inc
35.38
1
1
300,000
$10,587,000
3
2
290,000
IACI
IAC/Interactivecorp
19.41
2
1
325,200
$6,395,438
34
1
8,106,200
EMC
EMC Corp
17.04
3
3
298,000
$5,140,050
6
5
675,732
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
170.01
1
1
25,000
$4,409,438
1
1
16,129
SHOO
Madden Steven Ltd
37.8
2
1
100,000
$3,983,441
1
1
7,500
CXW
Corrections Corp of America
24.15
5
1
98,800
$2,513,240
3
3
170,748
CLR
Continental Resources Inc
36.75
1
1
41,951
$1,651,946
2
1
15,000
EME
Emcor Group Inc
24.56
2
1
59,100
$1,537,492
5
4
129,504
CRTP
China Ritar Power Corp
4.68
2
2
604,462
$1,293,548
3
1
122,500
IBKC
Iberiabank Corp
54.55
2
2
17,375
$944,052
0
0
0
CMP
Compass Minerals International Inc
65.73
1
1
14,000
$914,760
1
1
14,239
STNR
Steiner Leisure Ltd
41.47
2
2
20,000
$833,506
12
7
79,561
GEO
Geo Group The
20
1
1
30,000
$614,991
3
3
87,000
CLH
Clean Harbors Inc
54.46
1
1
11,100
$613,608
2
2
1,100
URS
URS Corp
43.08
1
1
13,333
$588,952
1
1
886
IBM
International Business Machines Corp
126.96
1
1
4,500
$570,430
7
4
161,582
NETL
Netlogic Microsystems Inc
41.61
2
2
13,000
$563,224
3
3
27,333
IRBT
Irobot Corp
14.23
1
1
38,115
$532,467
25
5
188,771
WAG
Walgreen Co
38.97
1
1
11,441
$445,741
7
4
29,890
GR
Goodrich Corp
60.85
1
1
6,908
$417,893
0
0
0
HSIC
Schein Henry Inc
50.53
1
1
6,000
$390,120
1
1
6,000
TJX
TJX Companies Inc
38.8
1
1
10,000
$390,000
3
2
92,500
VKSYE
Viking Systems Inc
0.006
1
1
420,000
$388,400
0
0
0
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
6.95
1
1
53,328
$383,962
0
0
0
MWE
Markwest Energy Partners LP
24.33
4
1
15,000
$367,494
1
1
300,000
STMP
Stamps Com Inc
9.4
6
1
37,000
$351,418
15
3
138,243
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc
30.59
1
1
10,817
$346,144
17
3
69,598
CSL
Carlisle Companies Inc
32.68
1
1
10,000
$328,000
0
0
0
DW
Drew Industries Incorporated
20.25
1
1
15,000
$315,215
12
5
74,100
IMGN
Immunogen Inc
8.35
2
1
35,680
$300,051
4
2
240,000
SUF
Sulphco Inc
0.94
2
1
300,000
$290,978
4
1
2,151,728
FOSL
Fossil Inc
31.88
2
2
8,581
$278,783
12
5
537,280
GD
General Dynamics Corp
66.47
1
1
3,961
$267,454
13
11
339,761
APT
Alpha Pro Tech Ltd
5.2
1
1
50,000
$255,500
5
4
270,000
LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corp
22.06
1
1
10,000
$230,000
9
3
4,643,500
EXPO
Exponent Inc
26.63
2
1
8,200
$218,859
15
1
94,547
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
45.1
1
1
4,667
$211,887
41
6
1,156,875
EW
Edwards Lifesciences Corp
81.25
1
1
2,500
$202,575
15
6
188,726
ANAT
American National Insurance Company
99.31
1
1
2,000
$195,000
0
0
0
OPLK
Oplink Communications Inc
17.76
1
1
10,000
$175,100
0
0
0
PRPX
Portec Rail Products Inc
8.95
1
1
17,621
$166,132
0
0
0
CPY
CPI Corp
12.05
4
2
13,400
$162,442
65
4
489,144
WPC
Carey W P & Co LLC
26.99
3
1
5,806
$158,046
0
0
0
BBND
Bigband Networks, Inc.
3.66
2
2
40,000
$149,500
7
1
53,311
MMS
Maximus Inc
46.49
1
1
3,024
$141,103
6
2
32,050
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
83.88
1
1
1,625
$138,873
3
2
7,000
DGIT
DG Fastchannel Inc
26.9
1
1
5,000
$137,500
2
1
7,000
CVM
Cel Sci Corp
1.3
1
1
100,000
$134,500
0
0
0
DWA
Dreamworks Animation Skg Inc
32.58
1
1
3,879
$130,253
4
2
107,440
HCP
HCP Inc
30.03
1
1
4,277
$128,353
1
1
4,880
TUP
Tupperware Corp
46.49
1
1
2,516
$117,531
34
16
694,620
ACFN
Acorn Factor Inc
7.37
2
1
14,135
$108,253
2
1
180,000
IO
Ion Geophysical Corp
5.66
1
1
18,452
$105,176
0
0
0
FSYS
Fuel Systems Solutions Inc
48.73
1
1
1,875
$97,275
2
2
5,368
MORN
Morningstar Inc
47.92
1
1
2,000
$96,770
57
4
358,876
AVD
American Vanguard Corp
7.08
2
1
10,900
$79,970
4
1
34,700
VSAT
Viasat Inc
30.41
1
1
2,464
$74,187
0
0
0
LRY
Liberty Property Trust
30.22
1
1
2,253
$69,775
3
3
140,340
RDYN
Replidyne Inc
0.78
1
1
14,350
$69,144
1
1
3,766
ISBC
Investors Bancorp Inc
10.77
1
1
6,207
$68,434
1
1
5,000
FCFC
Firstcity Financial Corp
7.64
1
1
8,600
$67,080
0
0
0
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corp
13
4
2
4,770
$63,178
9
3
10,383
DTSI
Digital Theater Systems Inc
29.99
1
1
2,000
$60,401
0
0
0
NATI
National Instruments Corp
28.28
1
1
2,044
$57,743
31
3
73,598
CRED
Credo Petroleum Corp
9.98
1
1
5,619
$56,808
0
0
0
PCAR
Paccar Inc
38.49
1
1
1,200
$46,224
6
4
452,689
DEST
Destination Maternity Corp
20.2
2
2
2,200
$45,100
0
0
0
ASI
American Safety Insurance Group Ltd
14.47
1
1
2,500
$36,095
1
1
5,000
ISH
International Shipholding Corp
34.52
1
1
1,000
$36,000
18
1
59,095
RTEC
Rudolph Technologies Inc
6.85
1
1
5,319
$35,356
1
1
800
PSSI
Pss World Medical Inc
19.68
1
1
1,541
$30,820
4
2
15,210
PHM
Pulte Homes Inc
9.46
1
1
3,000
$30,120
3
2
130,000
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
38.54
1
1
719
$28,544
12
2
71,900
JAX
Alexanders J Corp
4.04
2
1
6,760
$27,644
0
0
0
MRM
Merrimac Industries Inc
9.3199
1
1
2,500
$23,011
0
0
0
CLFD
Clearfield Inc
3.3
1
1
6,000
$19,020
0
0
0
CTWS
Connecticut Water Service Inc
22.8
1
1
827
$18,905
1
1
735
ELY
Callaway Golf Co
7.1
1
1
2,324
$16,500
0
0
0
PNX
Phoenix Companies Inc
3
1
1
4,300
$12,986
2
1
150,627
AMRI
Albany Molecular Research Inc
8.3
1
1
1,500
$12,075
0
0
0
STRT
Strattec Security Corp
14.7
1
1
600
$8,718
0
0
0
XXIA
IXIA
6.67
1
1
1,261
$8,676
4
3
30,860
NWK
Network Equipment Technologies Inc
3.88
1
1
2,000
$7,815
0
0
0
KFRC
Kforce Inc
13.49
1
1
519
$7,240
4
2
64,400
AVGN
Avigen Inc
1.42
1
1
5,000
$7,161
1
1
472,200
VSCP
Virtualscopics, Inc.
1.17
1
1
5,900
$6,965
6
1
30,881
HKN
HKN Inc
3.46
1
1
1,484
$5,197
0
0
0
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
34.58
1
1
146
$5,110
10
4
49,182
OLCB
Ohio Legacy Corp
1.25
1
1
4,600
$4,370
0
0
0
DLOV
Daleco Resources Corp
0.18
1
1
10,000
$1,500
4
1
21,815
Daily Summary- Sell View
J3SG
Created : November 20, 2009, 10:00 pm
Ticker
Company Name
Last Close
Sells Today
People Selling
Total Shares Traded
Total Value Sold
3 Month Sells
Sells
People
Shares
DG
Dollar General Corp
23.21
4
4
19,350,057
$395,958,657
0
0
0
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
33.28
2
2
6,000,000
$193,500,000
0
0
0
ABVT
Abovenet Inc
53.57
1
1
720,000
$37,728,000
11
3
114,509
URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc
32.18
6
3
792,904
$26,223,058
6
3
1,730,000
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc
49.51
1
1
300,000
$14,872,830
12
8
763,486
LNCR
Lincare Holdings Inc
35.38
1
1
300,000
$10,587,000
3
2
290,000
IACI
IAC/Interactivecorp
19.41
2
1
325,200
$6,395,438
34
1
8,106,200
EMC
EMC Corp
17.04
3
3
298,000
$5,140,050
6
5
675,732
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
170.01
1
1
25,000
$4,409,438
1
1
16,129
SHOO
Madden Steven Ltd
37.8
2
1
100,000
$3,983,441
1
1
7,500
CXW
Corrections Corp of America
24.15
5
1
98,800
$2,513,240
3
3
170,748
CLR
Continental Resources Inc
36.75
1
1
41,951
$1,651,946
2
1
15,000
EME
Emcor Group Inc
24.56
2
1
59,100
$1,537,492
5
4
129,504
CRTP
China Ritar Power Corp
4.68
2
2
604,462
$1,293,548
3
1
122,500
IBKC
Iberiabank Corp
54.55
2
2
17,375
$944,052
0
0
0
CMP
Compass Minerals International Inc
65.73
1
1
14,000
$914,760
1
1
14,239
STNR
Steiner Leisure Ltd
41.47
2
2
20,000
$833,506
12
7
79,561
GEO
Geo Group The
20
1
1
30,000
$614,991
3
3
87,000
CLH
Clean Harbors Inc
54.46
1
1
11,100
$613,608
2
2
1,100
URS
URS Corp
43.08
1
1
13,333
$588,952
1
1
886
IBM
International Business Machines Corp
126.96
1
1
4,500
$570,430
7
4
161,582
NETL
Netlogic Microsystems Inc
41.61
2
2
13,000
$563,224
3
3
27,333
IRBT
Irobot Corp
14.23
1
1
38,115
$532,467
25
5
188,771
WAG
Walgreen Co
38.97
1
1
11,441
$445,741
7
4
29,890
GR
Goodrich Corp
60.85
1
1
6,908
$417,893
0
0
0
HSIC
Schein Henry Inc
50.53
1
1
6,000
$390,120
1
1
6,000
TJX
TJX Companies Inc
38.8
1
1
10,000
$390,000
3
2
92,500
VKSYE
Viking Systems Inc
0.006
1
1
420,000
$388,400
0
0
0
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
6.95
1
1
53,328
$383,962
0
0
0
MWE
Markwest Energy Partners LP
24.33
4
1
15,000
$367,494
1
1
300,000
STMP
Stamps Com Inc
9.4
6
1
37,000
$351,418
15
3
138,243
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc
30.59
1
1
10,817
$346,144
17
3
69,598
CSL
Carlisle Companies Inc
32.68
1
1
10,000
$328,000
0
0
0
DW
Drew Industries Incorporated
20.25
1
1
15,000
$315,215
12
5
74,100
IMGN
Immunogen Inc
8.35
2
1
35,680
$300,051
4
2
240,000
SUF
Sulphco Inc
0.94
2
1
300,000
$290,978
4
1
2,151,728
FOSL
Fossil Inc
31.88
2
2
8,581
$278,783
12
5
537,280
GD
General Dynamics Corp
66.47
1
1
3,961
$267,454
13
11
339,761
APT
Alpha Pro Tech Ltd
5.2
1
1
50,000
$255,500
5
4
270,000
LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corp
22.06
1
1
10,000
$230,000
9
3
4,643,500
EXPO
Exponent Inc
26.63
2
1
8,200
$218,859
15
1
94,547
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
45.1
1
1
4,667
$211,887
41
6
1,156,875
EW
Edwards Lifesciences Corp
81.25
1
1
2,500
$202,575
15
6
188,726
ANAT
American National Insurance Company
99.31
1
1
2,000
$195,000
0
0
0
OPLK
Oplink Communications Inc
17.76
1
1
10,000
$175,100
0
0
0
PRPX
Portec Rail Products Inc
8.95
1
1
17,621
$166,132
0
0
0
CPY
CPI Corp
12.05
4
2
13,400
$162,442
65
4
489,144
WPC
Carey W P & Co LLC
26.99
3
1
5,806
$158,046
0
0
0
BBND
Bigband Networks, Inc.
3.66
2
2
40,000
$149,500
7
1
53,311
MMS
Maximus Inc
46.49
1
1
3,024
$141,103
6
2
32,050
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
83.88
1
1
1,625
$138,873
3
2
7,000
DGIT
DG Fastchannel Inc
26.9
1
1
5,000
$137,500
2
1
7,000
CVM
Cel Sci Corp
1.3
1
1
100,000
$134,500
0
0
0
DWA
Dreamworks Animation Skg Inc
32.58
1
1
3,879
$130,253
4
2
107,440
HCP
HCP Inc
30.03
1
1
4,277
$128,353
1
1
4,880
TUP
Tupperware Corp
46.49
1
1
2,516
$117,531
34
16
694,620
ACFN
Acorn Factor Inc
7.37
2
1
14,135
$108,253
2
1
180,000
IO
Ion Geophysical Corp
5.66
1
1
18,452
$105,176
0
0
0
FSYS
Fuel Systems Solutions Inc
48.73
1
1
1,875
$97,275
2
2
5,368
MORN
Morningstar Inc
47.92
1
1
2,000
$96,770
57
4
358,876
AVD
American Vanguard Corp
7.08
2
1
10,900
$79,970
4
1
34,700
VSAT
Viasat Inc
30.41
1
1
2,464
$74,187
0
0
0
LRY
Liberty Property Trust
30.22
1
1
2,253
$69,775
3
3
140,340
RDYN
Replidyne Inc
0.78
1
1
14,350
$69,144
1
1
3,766
ISBC
Investors Bancorp Inc
10.77
1
1
6,207
$68,434
1
1
5,000
FCFC
Firstcity Financial Corp
7.64
1
1
8,600
$67,080
0
0
0
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corp
13
4
2
4,770
$63,178
9
3
10,383
DTSI
Digital Theater Systems Inc
29.99
1
1
2,000
$60,401
0
0
0
NATI
National Instruments Corp
28.28
1
1
2,044
$57,743
31
3
73,598
CRED
Credo Petroleum Corp
9.98
1
1
5,619
$56,808
0
0
0
PCAR
Paccar Inc
38.49
1
1
1,200
$46,224
6
4
452,689
DEST
Destination Maternity Corp
20.2
2
2
2,200
$45,100
0
0
0
ASI
American Safety Insurance Group Ltd
14.47
1
1
2,500
$36,095
1
1
5,000
ISH
International Shipholding Corp
34.52
1
1
1,000
$36,000
18
1
59,095
RTEC
Rudolph Technologies Inc
6.85
1
1
5,319
$35,356
1
1
800
PSSI
Pss World Medical Inc
19.68
1
1
1,541
$30,820
4
2
15,210
PHM
Pulte Homes Inc
9.46
1
1
3,000
$30,120
3
2
130,000
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
38.54
1
1
719
$28,544
12
2
71,900
JAX
Alexanders J Corp
4.04
2
1
6,760
$27,644
0
0
0
MRM
Merrimac Industries Inc
9.3199
1
1
2,500
$23,011
0
0
0
CLFD
Clearfield Inc
3.3
1
1
6,000
$19,020
0
0
0
CTWS
Connecticut Water Service Inc
22.8
1
1
827
$18,905
1
1
735
ELY
Callaway Golf Co
7.1
1
1
2,324
$16,500
0
0
0
PNX
Phoenix Companies Inc
3
1
1
4,300
$12,986
2
1
150,627
AMRI
Albany Molecular Research Inc
8.3
1
1
1,500
$12,075
0
0
0
STRT
Strattec Security Corp
14.7
1
1
600
$8,718
0
0
0
XXIA
IXIA
6.67
1
1
1,261
$8,676
4
3
30,860
NWK
Network Equipment Technologies Inc
3.88
1
1
2,000
$7,815
0
0
0
KFRC
Kforce Inc
13.49
1
1
519
$7,240
4
2
64,400
AVGN
Avigen Inc
1.42
1
1
5,000
$7,161
1
1
472,200
VSCP
Virtualscopics, Inc.
1.17
1
1
5,900
$6,965
6
1
30,881
HKN
HKN Inc
3.46
1
1
1,484
$5,197
0
0
0
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
34.58
1
1
146
$5,110
10
4
49,182
OLCB
Ohio Legacy Corp
1.25
1
1
4,600
$4,370
0
0
0
DLOV
Daleco Resources Corp
0.18
1
1
10,000
$1,500
4
1
21,815
Friday, November 20, 2009
11-20-09
Treasury yeilds turned close to zero yesterday. The last time this happened we were one month out from the crisis.
11-20-09
Found an interesting artice where the margin requirments for forex accounts will reduced from 100% to 25%. This could clear some of the shorts on the dollar. We have option expiration today and could have a bounce day. Once again i am stressing that trend as been the completely wrong lately.
China and Japan were down along with Hong Kong
Europe is all up here, looking to find out why. Futures are up fractionally here also.
All commodities are down here. They have been leading indicators for the economy. Tell me waht gold is doing and i can tell you what the dollar did and what the market did.
Banks were really hurt in japan. We are a mirror image of japan right now.
China and Japan were down along with Hong Kong
Europe is all up here, looking to find out why. Futures are up fractionally here also.
All commodities are down here. They have been leading indicators for the economy. Tell me waht gold is doing and i can tell you what the dollar did and what the market did.
Banks were really hurt in japan. We are a mirror image of japan right now.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
11-19-09
Is it possible the new health care bill could really hurt supplemental insurers like aflac?
11-19-09
Well the jobless claims came out this morning. They were better than expected ,but i believe the street wanted the weekly number to be under 500,000. We didn't get it. Now i said this again last week and we rallied so we could do the same this week. All in all having the market do the same thing two weeks in row is almost impossible. This thing has gotten so tricky that trying to short tops is very hard.
The best thing to do is either hold the short position or wait of a break of 1102 on the SP500 or 10,360 on the DOW.
I am short and have been short the past two weeks. The only thing that has saved me is daytrading for small profits. Of course i am looking at serious red positions that are my swing trades. We got real close to be stopped out on these monday.
Adios
The best thing to do is either hold the short position or wait of a break of 1102 on the SP500 or 10,360 on the DOW.
I am short and have been short the past two weeks. The only thing that has saved me is daytrading for small profits. Of course i am looking at serious red positions that are my swing trades. We got real close to be stopped out on these monday.
Adios
11-19-09
Albert Einstein once said that the definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Through that lens, the current course of fiscal and monetary policy is absolutely insane. Smart Money 11/18/09.
Currently i feel isolated. I keep telling people to sell there stocks and possibly enter short positions through SH, VXX, FAZ, and SRS. I have stopped emailing people with my recommendations and telling people what to do with thier money. Simply i look at them and nodd. If they ask i tell them, but they don't like my reponse. A few people have listened to me and sold and they now want to rebuy. Feeling like we are in a bull market. One thing i know from experience is,"Losing money hurts way more than missing out on a big move."
It all comes down to this! We are going to correct in the next month or two. Stocks go down way faster than they go up. So sell now and rebuy in september or october of next year.
Currently i feel isolated. I keep telling people to sell there stocks and possibly enter short positions through SH, VXX, FAZ, and SRS. I have stopped emailing people with my recommendations and telling people what to do with thier money. Simply i look at them and nodd. If they ask i tell them, but they don't like my reponse. A few people have listened to me and sold and they now want to rebuy. Feeling like we are in a bull market. One thing i know from experience is,"Losing money hurts way more than missing out on a big move."
It all comes down to this! We are going to correct in the next month or two. Stocks go down way faster than they go up. So sell now and rebuy in september or october of next year.
11-19-09
Well whoever bought all of those USO puts is gonna be happy this morning with oil down two bucks. The order was for 1200 november 40 puts. Very risky play but confirms that there are people who know what is going on before it happens. My job is to ride the coatails.
The boyz at goog were selling like crazy yesterday. The CFO sold 100 million in stock.
GS, AFL, IAC, TUP, and many others were being sold like crazy also. The highest daily dollar amount i have seen.
Still have yet to figuire out why the REITS were doing so good into the close yesterday.
The Nikkei sold off hard last night. Europe is down pretty good also. They are about 2 hours into trading at this post.
Looks like the Dollar is up and Gold is way down along with oil. The Gold miners are the ones really taking it on the chin.
My short portfolio should be way up at the open if all stays the same.
The boyz at goog were selling like crazy yesterday. The CFO sold 100 million in stock.
GS, AFL, IAC, TUP, and many others were being sold like crazy also. The highest daily dollar amount i have seen.
Still have yet to figuire out why the REITS were doing so good into the close yesterday.
The Nikkei sold off hard last night. Europe is down pretty good also. They are about 2 hours into trading at this post.
Looks like the Dollar is up and Gold is way down along with oil. The Gold miners are the ones really taking it on the chin.
My short portfolio should be way up at the open if all stays the same.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
11-18-09
Well USO puts were being bought like crazy. We have option expiration in 3 days. They were the $40 dollar strike options, puts. In order for the price of oil to go down we would need a rise in the dollar. Went short SPG with puts it was on a tear today. We will see. All in all a pretty lousy day trading on my part. Couldn't get any real good market direction.
Real estate was on a tear into the close.
Real estate was on a tear into the close.
11-18-09
Call buying for the DOW was 2 to 1 within the first 30 minutes the market was opening. This is a bearish indicator for me. We will see.
There is also talk of a no correction now. That usually means we are gona get a correction.
The daycare near my office is closing down. There are so many people out of work they can't keep the doors open. The news last night said that double the number of people are entering food kitchens. Amazing double!
There is a lot of bearish divergence here. The russel and transports are not making new highs. Everyone is talking about this so i am gonna discount it. Keep in mind that in a turning point the DOW which has easy exit and entry points is the last to go down.
There is also talk of a no correction now. That usually means we are gona get a correction.
The daycare near my office is closing down. There are so many people out of work they can't keep the doors open. The news last night said that double the number of people are entering food kitchens. Amazing double!
There is a lot of bearish divergence here. The russel and transports are not making new highs. Everyone is talking about this so i am gonna discount it. Keep in mind that in a turning point the DOW which has easy exit and entry points is the last to go down.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
11-17-09
On monday we had a huge intermarket reversal. I think a bunch of traders jumped on the short side including me. Everyone expected the market to sell off today including me. Today i didn't lose money neither yesterday. I am net short here.
It would be very interesting if we sold off tommorrow. Everyone has been saying since it is option expiration week we should show strength. We are always strong the week before thanksgiving. Well what if everyone is wrong? What if we sell off like a waterfall this week.
Well i think it would be good for me ,but it would catch a lot of people off guard. This is exactly what the markets want to happen. The markets want to punish the most people possible. It looks to me that everyone jumped on the longs into the close. Lets see what happens.
Some insider selling of GS, HAL, AFL, and WMT after the bell.
It would be very interesting if we sold off tommorrow. Everyone has been saying since it is option expiration week we should show strength. We are always strong the week before thanksgiving. Well what if everyone is wrong? What if we sell off like a waterfall this week.
Well i think it would be good for me ,but it would catch a lot of people off guard. This is exactly what the markets want to happen. The markets want to punish the most people possible. It looks to me that everyone jumped on the longs into the close. Lets see what happens.
Some insider selling of GS, HAL, AFL, and WMT after the bell.
11-17-09
Take a look at this.
http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/jim-chanos-is-bearish-on-china.html
We had a new moon exactly at 2:14pm yesterday. Take a look at what the market did around that time. Yes i went short at this time.
I had to close some of my short option because we were approaching option expiration. I used this money to buy FAZ. The banks are going to have issue new shares to meet the new capital requirements.
Adios
http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/jim-chanos-is-bearish-on-china.html
We had a new moon exactly at 2:14pm yesterday. Take a look at what the market did around that time. Yes i went short at this time.
I had to close some of my short option because we were approaching option expiration. I used this money to buy FAZ. The banks are going to have issue new shares to meet the new capital requirements.
Adios
Monday, November 16, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
11-15-09
We are in a topping process and it is very frustrating. Good luck with the longs. Be careful with the shorts try to not overtrade and lose your profits.
11-15-09
Would the United States start a war to help economic recovery:
And Chalmers Johnson - Professor emeritus of the University of California, San Diego, and former CIA consultant - writes:
This is military Keynesianism — the determination to maintain a permanent war economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic product, even though it makes no contribution to either production or consumption.
This ideology goes back to the first years of the cold war. During the late 1940s, the US was haunted by economic anxieties. The great depression of the 1930s had been overcome only by the war production boom of the second world war. With peace and demobilisation, there was a pervasive fear that the depression would return. During 1949, alarmed by the Soviet Union’s detonation of an atomic bomb, the looming Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, a domestic recession, and the lowering of the Iron Curtain around the USSR’s European satellites, the US sought to draft basic strategy for the emerging cold war. The result was the militaristic National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68) drafted under the supervision of Paul Nitze, then head of the Policy Planning Staff in the State Department. Dated 14 April 1950 and signed by President Harry S Truman on 30 September 1950, it laid out the basic public economic policies that the US pursues to the present day.
In its conclusions, NSC-68 asserted: “One of the most significant lessons of our World War II experience was that the American economy, when it operates at a level approaching full efficiency, can provide enormous resources for purposes other than civilian consumption while simultaneously providing a high standard of living”.
With this understanding, US strategists began to build up a massive munitions industry, both to counter the military might of the Soviet Union (which they consistently overstated) and also to maintain full employment, as well as ward off a possible return of the depression. The result was that, under Pentagon leadership, entire new industries were created to manufacture large aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and surveillance and communications satellites. This led to what President Eisenhower warned against in his farewell address of 6 February 1961: “The conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience” — the military-industrial complex.
By 1990 the value of the weapons, equipment and factories devoted to the Department of Defense was 83% of the value of all plants and equipment in US manufacturing. From 1947 to 1990, the combined US military budgets amounted to $8.7 trillion. Even though the Soviet Union no longer exists, US reliance on military Keynesianism has, if anything, ratcheted up, thanks to the massive vested interests that have become entrenched around the military establishment.
And Chalmers Johnson - Professor emeritus of the University of California, San Diego, and former CIA consultant - writes:
This is military Keynesianism — the determination to maintain a permanent war economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic product, even though it makes no contribution to either production or consumption.
This ideology goes back to the first years of the cold war. During the late 1940s, the US was haunted by economic anxieties. The great depression of the 1930s had been overcome only by the war production boom of the second world war. With peace and demobilisation, there was a pervasive fear that the depression would return. During 1949, alarmed by the Soviet Union’s detonation of an atomic bomb, the looming Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, a domestic recession, and the lowering of the Iron Curtain around the USSR’s European satellites, the US sought to draft basic strategy for the emerging cold war. The result was the militaristic National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68) drafted under the supervision of Paul Nitze, then head of the Policy Planning Staff in the State Department. Dated 14 April 1950 and signed by President Harry S Truman on 30 September 1950, it laid out the basic public economic policies that the US pursues to the present day.
In its conclusions, NSC-68 asserted: “One of the most significant lessons of our World War II experience was that the American economy, when it operates at a level approaching full efficiency, can provide enormous resources for purposes other than civilian consumption while simultaneously providing a high standard of living”.
With this understanding, US strategists began to build up a massive munitions industry, both to counter the military might of the Soviet Union (which they consistently overstated) and also to maintain full employment, as well as ward off a possible return of the depression. The result was that, under Pentagon leadership, entire new industries were created to manufacture large aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and surveillance and communications satellites. This led to what President Eisenhower warned against in his farewell address of 6 February 1961: “The conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience” — the military-industrial complex.
By 1990 the value of the weapons, equipment and factories devoted to the Department of Defense was 83% of the value of all plants and equipment in US manufacturing. From 1947 to 1990, the combined US military budgets amounted to $8.7 trillion. Even though the Soviet Union no longer exists, US reliance on military Keynesianism has, if anything, ratcheted up, thanks to the massive vested interests that have become entrenched around the military establishment.
Friday, November 13, 2009
11-13-09
Well europe was up until the GDP numbers came out then it very quickly went negative.
The shanghai composite was up on hopes that Yuan would not be pegged to the dollar.
Nikkei was down today.
ASX was down.
Hang Seng was up.
All of europe is down which was up yesterday. US markets sold off yesterday.
France had some real pathetic GDP numbers. The most important thing i read on the numbers was consumption was down by half. This is huge for bears.
My outlook here is short. If you overlay a lunar cycle on the stock market you have a sell off on every full moon. We have a full moon very close. Typically i would discount this but the more i have read i tend to lean on it a little more. We have strong long term resistance here.
Please read the article below.
http://pragcap.com/must-read-did-the-nation-overdose-on-debt
We could bounce today and it would be a good idea to add to shorts here.
The shanghai composite was up on hopes that Yuan would not be pegged to the dollar.
Nikkei was down today.
ASX was down.
Hang Seng was up.
All of europe is down which was up yesterday. US markets sold off yesterday.
France had some real pathetic GDP numbers. The most important thing i read on the numbers was consumption was down by half. This is huge for bears.
My outlook here is short. If you overlay a lunar cycle on the stock market you have a sell off on every full moon. We have a full moon very close. Typically i would discount this but the more i have read i tend to lean on it a little more. We have strong long term resistance here.
Please read the article below.
http://pragcap.com/must-read-did-the-nation-overdose-on-debt
We could bounce today and it would be a good idea to add to shorts here.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
11-12-09
We have 1.28 calls to every put today. Far surpassing yesterday. We have a lot of bulls out there and i think this is a bearish indicator.
11-12-09
Lots of call buying again today. Would love to see us make new highs on a lower RSI reading.
11-12-09
I think everyone wanted a 400,000 handle on the jobs and they didn't get it.
http://www.fxsolutions.com/learning-tools/market-directions.asp?file=20091109
the above article explains what is really going on in china.
I am net short here and adding to SRS on any dips.
http://www.fxsolutions.com/learning-tools/market-directions.asp?file=20091109
the above article explains what is really going on in china.
I am net short here and adding to SRS on any dips.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
11-11-09
Any trading strategy which becomes dangerously overcrowded eventually becomes a losing strategy, regardless of whether the assets involve currencies, commodities, real estate, equities, or anything else. The currently trendy carry trade has caused a dangerous undervaluation for the U.S. dollar, along with a dangerous overvaluation for crude oil, gold, and emerging-market funds. While we are likely to see a sudden unraveling in the near future, this will probably be followed by even more absurd extremes for all of the above assets during the coming winter and/or spring of 2010. Once the carry trade has become practically the only game in town, it will unravel even more dramatically than had been the case in 2008, and will lead to a far worse global recession. The currently detested U.S. dollar will become the king of worldwide currencies by 2012, while most general equity indices will slump to their lowest levels since the mid-1990s. The stock-market crash of 1929 may have dominated the headlines, but the global economy by July 1932 had become far worse. Last year was merely a preview of what we are going to experience in 2011 and 2012. As long as you are prepared, you will be able to benefit from what will likely be the worst equity and commodity bear market since 1930-1932.
The above is from Steve Jon Kaplan he can be reached at truecontrarian.com
I sure do feel better after reading something like this. Made some modest gains today shorting spy off the open for $.80 then went long LVS for a $.50. Took the opportunity to add to SRS and VXX.
We have jobless claims tommorrow at 8:30. I think we go under 500,000 for the first time. At this news i expect the market to rally. Will add to short positions around 10:00am.
Call options outpaced put options 2 to 1 today. This typically is a bearish indicator.
Russell 2000 had a pretty lousy day
Transports failed to break key resistance.
My undertsanding of this carry trade is this. Big money managers can borrow for nothing right now. This means they borrow the dollar and invest in big name companies where the can get out relatively fast in case it goes against them. Also money managers borrow the dollar, short it, and buy other apreciating currencies. This works fine until it doesn't anymore. All i hear and read about is the dollar. It is nerve racking. When this house of cards comes down i hope i am short enough to take full advantage.
The above is from Steve Jon Kaplan he can be reached at truecontrarian.com
I sure do feel better after reading something like this. Made some modest gains today shorting spy off the open for $.80 then went long LVS for a $.50. Took the opportunity to add to SRS and VXX.
We have jobless claims tommorrow at 8:30. I think we go under 500,000 for the first time. At this news i expect the market to rally. Will add to short positions around 10:00am.
Call options outpaced put options 2 to 1 today. This typically is a bearish indicator.
Russell 2000 had a pretty lousy day
Transports failed to break key resistance.
My undertsanding of this carry trade is this. Big money managers can borrow for nothing right now. This means they borrow the dollar and invest in big name companies where the can get out relatively fast in case it goes against them. Also money managers borrow the dollar, short it, and buy other apreciating currencies. This works fine until it doesn't anymore. All i hear and read about is the dollar. It is nerve racking. When this house of cards comes down i hope i am short enough to take full advantage.
11-11-09
China released a slew of economic data. Looking closely at the numbers (which one should) it looks as if the numbers are great. One data point that looks suspicious to me is exports. The were down quite a bit. Now if i remember the exports are sold to the US. Now china had triple digit retail sales and other points that were very good. China was the only world market to trade lower yesterday or last night. Why is that?
Japan was barely up.
India surged
Europe is rocking
India is way up
Fink, Japans Bank of Tokyo CEO said she is deeply worried about the US and Japan. You have to get up early for this information she was speaking 3:00am our time. She said we have a large chance of double dip recession. She stated lake of Chinese imports and a weak dollar are going to lead to more expensive goods for the US. She was also worried about japan. The amount of debt that the Japanese have is really worrying her.
Japan was barely up.
India surged
Europe is rocking
India is way up
Fink, Japans Bank of Tokyo CEO said she is deeply worried about the US and Japan. You have to get up early for this information she was speaking 3:00am our time. She said we have a large chance of double dip recession. She stated lake of Chinese imports and a weak dollar are going to lead to more expensive goods for the US. She was also worried about japan. The amount of debt that the Japanese have is really worrying her.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
11-10-09
The Nikkei , China, and Singapore all opened to the upside to have a violent sell off in the last hour to leave them barely positive on the session.
European markets are up fractionally it will be important to see how the close the session. Typically after a run like the US had yesterday these markets would be up greater than this.
European markets are up fractionally it will be important to see how the close the session. Typically after a run like the US had yesterday these markets would be up greater than this.
Monday, November 9, 2009
11-09-09
Well the bulls sure are strong here. If we don't reverse tommorrow i may close my short position and look to reenter at a better price. A close above 1120 on the SP500 will have me seriously considering my positions on the short side.
Built a small position in DZZ at $14.75. Looking over the charts and there was no pullback. A steady grind higher. The only index to make new highs was the DOW. NAZ, SP500, Transports, and Russell all had uneventful days.
Tommorrow is huge for the bears. We will definitely open higher and it would be nice opportunity to short off the open for at least a couple points. From there who knows. Would look to short GS, RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, or WFC off the open if we gap up. Also CSX, SPG, and CAT have been weak here. They also have been having a lot of insider selling pressure.
Don't want to have close these short positions but the market can go up a lot longer than i can stay short. Don't get me wrong longer term i am bearish but we could switch sides for a couple days and get long or sit on the sidelines for a couple of points.
Built a small position in DZZ at $14.75. Looking over the charts and there was no pullback. A steady grind higher. The only index to make new highs was the DOW. NAZ, SP500, Transports, and Russell all had uneventful days.
Tommorrow is huge for the bears. We will definitely open higher and it would be nice opportunity to short off the open for at least a couple points. From there who knows. Would look to short GS, RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, or WFC off the open if we gap up. Also CSX, SPG, and CAT have been weak here. They also have been having a lot of insider selling pressure.
Don't want to have close these short positions but the market can go up a lot longer than i can stay short. Don't get me wrong longer term i am bearish but we could switch sides for a couple days and get long or sit on the sidelines for a couple of points.
11-09-09
something isn't right here on this monday. We bonds advancing and the market advancing. These tow do not move together. Also transports are turning south. Think this may be the best time to short.
11-09-09
Here is a list of blogs i read on a daily basis. I feel that these guys really know what the longterm picture is for stocks and commodities. You can short Gold through and ETF called DZZ. Today could be an excellent time to get out of stocks.
I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added.Faber has been reiterating, in various recent interviews, the notion of over-streched assets and a possible short-term dollar turnaround.Speaking in a Bloomberg interview from Istanbul on Tuesday, Faber said: "Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10%”.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
My Blog List
Peter Schiff Blog
Savings And Interest Rates
29 minutes ago
Jim Rogers Blog
I Am Not Buying Any Stock Market Around The World
42 minutes ago
Oil Trader`s Blog
Volatility On The Rise. That`s Bearish.
11 hours ago
I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added.Faber has been reiterating, in various recent interviews, the notion of over-streched assets and a possible short-term dollar turnaround.Speaking in a Bloomberg interview from Istanbul on Tuesday, Faber said: "Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10%”.Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
My Blog List
Peter Schiff Blog
Savings And Interest Rates
29 minutes ago
Jim Rogers Blog
I Am Not Buying Any Stock Market Around The World
42 minutes ago
Oil Trader`s Blog
Volatility On The Rise. That`s Bearish.
11 hours ago
Saturday, November 7, 2009
11-08-09
Barnes and Noble
I love reading at barnes and noble. Quiet good cafe and internet with this being said i would like to talk about Elliot Wave analysis.
If we took the wave 1 down from the october high to the march low and wave 2 up from march low until now and wave 3 down from here? This would put us at DOW 6800 i suppose. We are at an inflection point and we have a lot of resistance here.
Really hope people have there finances in order and are out of equities. Would highly reccommend shorting GS here. The other side of $150 could be seen in days. No double dip my ass. We have wave 3 down and 4 up then 5 down being the exhaustion wave.
I love reading at barnes and noble. Quiet good cafe and internet with this being said i would like to talk about Elliot Wave analysis.
If we took the wave 1 down from the october high to the march low and wave 2 up from march low until now and wave 3 down from here? This would put us at DOW 6800 i suppose. We are at an inflection point and we have a lot of resistance here.
Really hope people have there finances in order and are out of equities. Would highly reccommend shorting GS here. The other side of $150 could be seen in days. No double dip my ass. We have wave 3 down and 4 up then 5 down being the exhaustion wave.
Friday, November 6, 2009
11-07-09
The numbers for the consumer credit came in and they were bad but not as bad. On the 60 minute chart the MACD is lowering for the SPY. Less buying pressure, also for an up day volume was very light.
The volume in TLT picked up which could mean several things, the anticipated move to safety and the rise of the dollar. We will see. I need a good weekend.
The volume in TLT picked up which could mean several things, the anticipated move to safety and the rise of the dollar. We will see. I need a good weekend.
11-07-09
The current job numbers came out 10.2% very bad. Feel like the market just doesn't want to go down yet. I am not going to change anything until after monday. I implemented everything i talked about on the close on thursday and was up at the open but now i a down a good a bit and feeling frustrated. at this point i should probably double down but i don't have the courage to do so.
There are so many market technicians calling a head and shoulders pattern i am waondering if the rally is going to fail. The consumer credit markets come out at 3:00. This could be setting up as a nasty sell off into the close.
There are so many market technicians calling a head and shoulders pattern i am waondering if the rally is going to fail. The consumer credit markets come out at 3:00. This could be setting up as a nasty sell off into the close.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
11-05-09
The action today after the fed meeting was really bad. We have job numbers on Friday and I think the market will edge up slightly tomorrow or trade sideways with no real movement in any direction. I am going to go long SKF, SRS, VXX, and QID at the close on Thursday. The way the market has been acting has been very interesting. We go down on good news now. I think if the employment numbers on Friday are good we go down. If the numbers are bad on Friday we go WAY down. We hit 106.3 today on spy. Hopefully we can hit 107.50 to get the absolute best entry for these ETFS.
For a more conservative approach one could wait until after the numbers come out and short then. The entry could very well be the best approach. One could also do a variation. I am looking to double leverage this move with options so it is imperative to do before close on Thursday.
Looking at the april $10 dollars srs calls
Looking at the april $30 dollar skf calls
Looking at the volume of puts purchased on the spy, it almost doubles the amount of calls. This was done on good news. Also the UUP which is the dollar had 3 times the open interest traded in the November 23 calls.
Think gold is a good short soon with DZZ.
Think oil is a good short with DTO
Think long dollar UUP
For a more conservative approach one could wait until after the numbers come out and short then. The entry could very well be the best approach. One could also do a variation. I am looking to double leverage this move with options so it is imperative to do before close on Thursday.
Looking at the april $10 dollars srs calls
Looking at the april $30 dollar skf calls
Looking at the volume of puts purchased on the spy, it almost doubles the amount of calls. This was done on good news. Also the UUP which is the dollar had 3 times the open interest traded in the November 23 calls.
Think gold is a good short soon with DZZ.
Think oil is a good short with DTO
Think long dollar UUP
11-04-09
UNG could be a buy here at $10.00, we have the ADP numbers today and the FOMC meeting. This is a big day. Probably made a premature move knowing that we would bounce. Should have waited on my SRS calls. Really think we will break out and start forming the right shoulder on the S&P500. Will look to go short again at 1060-1080.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
11-03-09
Purchased 100 SRS april 17th calls, 20 dollar strike for $1.00 each this comes to about 10,000 dollars. Looking for SRS to retrace 20 dollars it is currently trading at $10.00. This is a big gamble bu i really believe and think we are headed a lot lower from here. It may not be tommorrow.
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