Man o Man
Well i think tommorrow we make new lows. We are going to test the november lows tommorrow. Tommorrow is thursday and the lows will be made tommorrow.
Sincerely,
Nicasurfer
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
Change
Well today i made a major change to my trading style. When looking at the trends that stocks make typically you can pick up a couple of points on most days when you follow your plan. Then some days (Like Today) every single trade you make goes against you. Days like this you question you ability and wonder if you can even do this. I am a good trader. I stuck to my plan. I made a formal change to the plan today so this will never happen again. Today 6 of my 6 trades were negative. No i am not completely wiped out because i had a plan. Today the portfolio was down close to 3%. Gave back half of what was made last week. This is a zero sum game and isn't easy. You have to put a lot of freakin effort into making money. At the end of the day you either won or lost. Black or white. Positive or negative.
Will wake up tommorrow follow the same plan with the "new change" and look to play the best game ever created.
Will wake up tommorrow follow the same plan with the "new change" and look to play the best game ever created.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Thursday Rollercoaster
Days like today can chop suey your account. At one point was way up tried to push the envelope and finished with a small profit.
Tomorrow if we make new lows will look at this as a flag break and will load up on the put options. Specifically RIG. Oil fell off the chart today with the inventory reports. This means that these companies are going to be spending less on exploration. This is what RIG does. It currently trades at $48 could see $30's by the end of month. Will look at the chart and time a $50 dollar puts. Will buy some tomorrow if we break the lows on the $S&P cash index we made on Thursday of last week. Really looking at the 812 number for $S&P. Then the big round number of 800.
Currently i am in TBT calls and see no sign of bonds making a comeback. Can't see how investors will keep there money in the 20 year t-bills with stocks at this level.
Also i am bullish banks here. How low can they go. Went against my rules ,but some of these banks actually turned a profit. US bancorp raised guidance. BAC got rid of that freakin idiot and GS looked really strong today inspite of all the issues.
Well see was nice to have good earnings out of GOOG and AAPL. Just so much fear in the market is nice to have some good news.
One final note all we need is some light at the end of the tunnel and this market will skyrocket. I am not gonna pick a bottom!
Tomorrow if we make new lows will look at this as a flag break and will load up on the put options. Specifically RIG. Oil fell off the chart today with the inventory reports. This means that these companies are going to be spending less on exploration. This is what RIG does. It currently trades at $48 could see $30's by the end of month. Will look at the chart and time a $50 dollar puts. Will buy some tomorrow if we break the lows on the $S&P cash index we made on Thursday of last week. Really looking at the 812 number for $S&P. Then the big round number of 800.
Currently i am in TBT calls and see no sign of bonds making a comeback. Can't see how investors will keep there money in the 20 year t-bills with stocks at this level.
Also i am bullish banks here. How low can they go. Went against my rules ,but some of these banks actually turned a profit. US bancorp raised guidance. BAC got rid of that freakin idiot and GS looked really strong today inspite of all the issues.
Well see was nice to have good earnings out of GOOG and AAPL. Just so much fear in the market is nice to have some good news.
One final note all we need is some light at the end of the tunnel and this market will skyrocket. I am not gonna pick a bottom!
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Bonds
Bought TBT february 41 dollar strike calls today at $2.90 each. Will see what happens the Bonds are extremely overbought. Lost a little money today but learned a lot and feel confident i can make it back.
From Arthur Hill at TD Trader
This directly taken fron www.tdtrader.com i highly reccommend suscribing to it for anyone who is serious about trading.
***Top Line Decline*** Shrinking revenues reflect economic realities. Earnings are much more malleable than revenues. In other words, it is much easier to massage the numbers to meet or exceed earnings estimates. Revenues, on the other hand, are less flexible and provide a clearer picture of business conditions. Looking at earning reports over the last 1-2 weeks, it is clear that revenues are shrinking, and shrinking fast. Intel revenues fell 22.8% year-on-year, while revenues at Johnson Controls were down 22.6% year-on-year. These are not small declines. State Street warned yesterday and the shares were whacked for a 59% loss. Business conditions are bad, real bad. This means we are likely to see an "L" bottom at best. "V" and "U" bottoms are out of the picture right now. After such trauma, a period of flat trading (recuperation) is needed to build a base from which to launch a sustainable rally. In the prior bear market, SPY traded flat for some 47 weeks before breaking out and starting a new bull market. There is a silver lining in these abysmal 4th quarter 2008 reports. It makes it easier to report a rebound in the 4th quarter of 2009. This means we may see a stock market bottom in Sep-Oct 2009. A 47 week trading range based on the Nov-08 lows would target a final bottom in late September or early October.
When looking at these companies take a look at the revenues because the numbers can be worked to look good.
***Top Line Decline*** Shrinking revenues reflect economic realities. Earnings are much more malleable than revenues. In other words, it is much easier to massage the numbers to meet or exceed earnings estimates. Revenues, on the other hand, are less flexible and provide a clearer picture of business conditions. Looking at earning reports over the last 1-2 weeks, it is clear that revenues are shrinking, and shrinking fast. Intel revenues fell 22.8% year-on-year, while revenues at Johnson Controls were down 22.6% year-on-year. These are not small declines. State Street warned yesterday and the shares were whacked for a 59% loss. Business conditions are bad, real bad. This means we are likely to see an "L" bottom at best. "V" and "U" bottoms are out of the picture right now. After such trauma, a period of flat trading (recuperation) is needed to build a base from which to launch a sustainable rally. In the prior bear market, SPY traded flat for some 47 weeks before breaking out and starting a new bull market. There is a silver lining in these abysmal 4th quarter 2008 reports. It makes it easier to report a rebound in the 4th quarter of 2009. This means we may see a stock market bottom in Sep-Oct 2009. A 47 week trading range based on the Nov-08 lows would target a final bottom in late September or early October.
When looking at these companies take a look at the revenues because the numbers can be worked to look good.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
wow!
Man o Man what a day. Ok the banks took a beating today. Made an abolute killing today shorting GS, HBC and going long SKF and SRS. I actually thought we were going to ounce today. How freakin low can C go. BAC under 5 insane. One thing i am looking at which i think will make a lot of money is TBT. This is an ultra short for the Bonds. Bonds are at the highest i have ever seen. Look at TLT. it keeps going higher.
I am going to start buying call options on TBT. Gonna buy the March $35 strike calls. Don't go crazy with this advice because it could cause some pain. TBT could get to $60 before year end.
Would also start looking at utilities and infrastrure stocks. I am buying an unknown company called BWEN. This is a high risk reward play. It trades at low volume and the rumor is that it is about to added to the naz.
Good luck
I am going to start buying call options on TBT. Gonna buy the March $35 strike calls. Don't go crazy with this advice because it could cause some pain. TBT could get to $60 before year end.
Would also start looking at utilities and infrastrure stocks. I am buying an unknown company called BWEN. This is a high risk reward play. It trades at low volume and the rumor is that it is about to added to the naz.
Good luck
Monday, January 19, 2009
We can grind higher
On friday with us not making any new lows i think we grind higher. Personally i believe it forming a nice bear flag on the indices. We could get some volume returning to the market and set up for a nice shorting opportunity. Timing is everything will be watching Bonds to hopefully give us a clue on when to short.
Went long BAC, C, UYG, and TBT in after hours trading on friday. Also bought calls on TBT and SPY.
Ultra shorterm (3-5 days) very bullish on stocks.
Went long BAC, C, UYG, and TBT in after hours trading on friday. Also bought calls on TBT and SPY.
Ultra shorterm (3-5 days) very bullish on stocks.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
I hope i learn from this!
We opened the S&P cash index at 841 and sold off to a quick 817 right before 12:00 noon. Was up very big before lunch. Decided to let ego get involved and push the envelope. Rig puts, HBC puts were up big. Went long SKF and TLT at break of 10am highs and had modest gains. The big gains came from shorting GOOG, CME, and GS. I got 10 points on CME 100 shares. Was doing a happy dance. Was all cash and went short GOOG for a scalp made a buck then went long CME for 3 bucks. Was unstoppable right! Hell no. Was up $2500 in 3 hours trading 4 accounts. Tried to short AAPL on a bear flag to get stopped out for a .60 loss.
OK my big loss came on going big on HBC puts had a key support level of $39. When the support was broken waited for a pull back to $40.12 level looked a bear flag set up ,but was a bear trap. Went long 20 February $45 dollar puts with a $1.5 dollar stop. That's a $3000 dollar loss this was 5% of the port. Well down $500 for the day. Made half of it back with quick scalping of the ultra short SRS and SKF. So down $250 for the day. At one point today had to have a rum drink. My mom was with me today i think i was trying to impress her.
OK so i think we bounce here. Went long TBT for my brothers account. Have a .7 stop with an entry of $38.90. This bounce is going to set up for a shorting opportunity. Will be looking at long set ups for tomorrow. Will bracket 10:00am and 10:30 price action. Banks were the loser today's almost every other sector was up. Take a look at RIMM or APOL they were on fire today. Banks are still in big trouble. Could have a rally with banks still going lower!
OK my big loss came on going big on HBC puts had a key support level of $39. When the support was broken waited for a pull back to $40.12 level looked a bear flag set up ,but was a bear trap. Went long 20 February $45 dollar puts with a $1.5 dollar stop. That's a $3000 dollar loss this was 5% of the port. Well down $500 for the day. Made half of it back with quick scalping of the ultra short SRS and SKF. So down $250 for the day. At one point today had to have a rum drink. My mom was with me today i think i was trying to impress her.
OK so i think we bounce here. Went long TBT for my brothers account. Have a .7 stop with an entry of $38.90. This bounce is going to set up for a shorting opportunity. Will be looking at long set ups for tomorrow. Will bracket 10:00am and 10:30 price action. Banks were the loser today's almost every other sector was up. Take a look at RIMM or APOL they were on fire today. Banks are still in big trouble. Could have a rally with banks still going lower!
DNA
One last thing.
Gonna go long DNA with a break of the 10:00 am high. They report after the bell. Will sell before close no matter what. Looking for a $1.50 gain with .75 risk.
Gonna go long DNA with a break of the 10:00 am high. They report after the bell. Will sell before close no matter what. Looking for a $1.50 gain with .75 risk.
Thursday
Gonna sit on my hands today. Think we could bounce here. Instead of getting long will look for a bear flag set up on the 60 minute charts.
Looking at puts for GOOG, HBC, AAPL, and FSLR
When we retest the lows is yet to be seen. Think we could grind out for a couple of days and then retest lows. Will start looking at buying puts when the s&p cash index gets back above 900 will start heavy buying at 925.
This may take a couple of days
Will go long GLD with a break of 81
Will go long TBT with a break of 113 on TLT
Looking at puts for GOOG, HBC, AAPL, and FSLR
When we retest the lows is yet to be seen. Think we could grind out for a couple of days and then retest lows. Will start looking at buying puts when the s&p cash index gets back above 900 will start heavy buying at 925.
This may take a couple of days
Will go long GLD with a break of 81
Will go long TBT with a break of 113 on TLT
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
I think we go lower!
S&P and Banks
If you were to run a fib retracment from the recent highs in november to the low in november we are smack dab at 50% retracment. Next shot for the S&P is 740. Loaded up on some more HBC puts and FSLR puts. Bank of america is askin for money citi group is screwed. Banks are in real trouble. Here's a way to look at it. You bought a home for $200,000 dollars. The house is know worth $150,000. The bank gave you a no money down intrest only loan. You then lose your job and declare bankruptcy or foreclosure. This bank now has a $50,000 dollar loss. This is happening and everywhere. For example DB declared a 6 billion dollar 4th quarter loss. 6 billion dollars in one quarter!
Where the hell did all the money go?
We go lower.
If you were to run a fib retracment from the recent highs in november to the low in november we are smack dab at 50% retracment. Next shot for the S&P is 740. Loaded up on some more HBC puts and FSLR puts. Bank of america is askin for money citi group is screwed. Banks are in real trouble. Here's a way to look at it. You bought a home for $200,000 dollars. The house is know worth $150,000. The bank gave you a no money down intrest only loan. You then lose your job and declare bankruptcy or foreclosure. This bank now has a $50,000 dollar loss. This is happening and everywhere. For example DB declared a 6 billion dollar 4th quarter loss. 6 billion dollars in one quarter!
Where the hell did all the money go?
We go lower.
Wednesday miday
Sold the FSlR puts for a nice gain. Was stopped out of the TBT for a small loss. As long as the wins are bigger than losses everything is good. My thought on FSLR is if it doesn't fill the gap we will push for new lows. Have current support at 130 then 110. We could test those lows soon. Gonna buy February 17th 150 strike puts. gonna go bigger size on this one.
Also looking at RIG puts. Oil is done because demand is down. You can cut supply all you want OPEC but it isn't gonna help. Gonna buy some rig puts february 17th 60 dollar puts at close.
Current market conditions. We broke key support today on S&P 850. i think were in real big trouble here. We could see new lows at least retest lows.
Los huevos
Also looking at RIG puts. Oil is done because demand is down. You can cut supply all you want OPEC but it isn't gonna help. Gonna buy some rig puts february 17th 60 dollar puts at close.
Current market conditions. We broke key support today on S&P 850. i think were in real big trouble here. We could see new lows at least retest lows.
Los huevos
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Tuesday night
What a roller coaster. We tested ke support areas on S&p and they were rejected.
We are in the bottom of a trading channel went long TBT today this is an ultra short for the bonds. My theory is if stocks rally bonds will get a haircut. Looking for 3 points on this trade have a $1.00 stop. Half size share of 300 shares
FSLR was downgraded by citi. This stock fell out of a trading channel. Would suspect tis stock sees support around 120. We will see, currently own puts on the stock. Could have been a bad idea but i kept hearing that Obama is going to green on the economy. I strongly feel the solars are hurt here and i am looking for new lows.
Looking for a rally on stocks into friday.
We are in the bottom of a trading channel went long TBT today this is an ultra short for the bonds. My theory is if stocks rally bonds will get a haircut. Looking for 3 points on this trade have a $1.00 stop. Half size share of 300 shares
FSLR was downgraded by citi. This stock fell out of a trading channel. Would suspect tis stock sees support around 120. We will see, currently own puts on the stock. Could have been a bad idea but i kept hearing that Obama is going to green on the economy. I strongly feel the solars are hurt here and i am looking for new lows.
Looking for a rally on stocks into friday.
monday & tuesday
Was a little skiddish about monday. I sat on my hands until 10:00 and then till 10:30. Once we broke 4 days lows on s$p i went short the fininacials. Most gains were made on GS and Skf. Made some really stupid trades in the afternoon and was stopped out due to short covering
For tuesday will wait for 10:30 to see if we have an inside day or another trend day.
I am still looking for rally into friday for option expiration.
We are the bottom of trading channel on most indices.
For tuesday will wait for 10:30 to see if we have an inside day or another trend day.
I am still looking for rally into friday for option expiration.
We are the bottom of trading channel on most indices.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
January 7th through the 17th
This last week in the markets looks like a potential pull back for a short term buying opportunity to me. We had a 3 days of an uptrend and now two days of a down trend. This downtrend is typicall to option expiration trends. Typically the trend is the friday before option expiration to have a pull back in the market. The week that options are to be excersised we should have a an uptrend into the friday close. Martin Schwartz says in his book pitbull that three updays should be followed by three down days. So we had our first pull back on thursday of last week followed by friday. We could see a pull back on monday also. Maybe a narrow range candle on tuesday with a rally into the end of the week. Will look for a pull back on tuesday in the morning as a buying opportunity. Tight stops will be used in case markets doesn't like this idea. Which is very much a possibility.
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