TLT

I have some orders in for $88.70 and $88.50. The .30 cent dividend gets paid at the end of this month.

I think that yesterdays market action was extremely odd. When i looked at the market in the morning, bonds were down, gold was down, dollar up, and market down. I couldn't make a whole lot out of it. Technically the market looks weak but i have been saying that for 6 months. Tops are way harder than bottoms.

Also i think government is about to raise interest rates.

I am not living in the united states right now and have little impact from media coverage. It has been nice not hearing the idiots on cnbc anymore.

The strong dollar does matter and we are entering an era of stagflation. Just make sure you can stay in the game long enough to purchase GDX, USO, GLD, and SLV. When the dollar starts topping these funds could triple or double in value.

China

Isn't google pulling out of china bad for baidu. This simply means that google can capture the market share outside of china. This couldn't be good news for BIDU.

Gold and Crude Lead the way

Intraday gold and crude lead the way. The dollar has been firming and unless we get a sell off in the dollar they(gold and crude) are limited on the upside.

Huge Disconnect

There is a huge disconnect between Gold and the Market today. The market should be going up because we can't print our way out of this mess. Then the market should go up with gold leading the way. This isn't happening and i think it is very interesting.

VXX

Selling more TLT and buying VXX

UNG

Building a small position in UNG Purchased at $7.42 in premarket. Will purchase more on the trip down.

Selling my small FPL position to finance the trade.

Gold and Oil

Look as if they are making a exhaustion gap high. This is very bearish.

Selling More TLT

Selling more TLT and purchasing more VXX

Negative Divergence

Huge negative divergence intra day

Sell

Selling some of my TLT calls to buy VXX at $23.09

Bonds

I like the action in bonds today.

My TLT calls are super green.

Stock Replacement

Selling uup puts here. Will gladly buy uup if it gets put to me. Selling a little TLT to finance the trade. The march 24 at .56.

3-11-10

The fact the market was up a certain percentage and that some of my options increased in value is a contrary indicator. Lets see if we can get to 10,070. That would bring the rest of indices down less. This is because the dow didn't increase as much on the way up. I am gonna clear anywhere near this number.

Truggin along

It feels as if the market is tired. We will see.

Next Friday

We have expiration next friday and mergers have been crazy. The world is buying dollars. It (the dollar) has been holding support very well. Oil and Gold looked weak to me. Bonds and comodities had a bearish day in my opinion.



We have divergence number one. This is a non confirmation in dow theory. Transports new high and dow no new high.



We also have divergence number two. Which is more of a sentiment divergence. This was the small speculator index. They are extremely bearish. When small speculators have been bearish this has been bullish for the market.



Also these notes:



The put call ratio for individual stocks was very low. When equity calls are being bought it isn't nescessary bearish. It could mean some stocks need a parabolic move to puke up some shorts and create buyers.



The put call ratio was very high for the indices. This means that big money managers are hedging thier long positions. Or the smart money is buying puts on the market as a whole.



It also very hard for me to cut my shorts at such move. I would rather wait out the storm unless we close above 10,725.

BAC

This the type of stuff that really can piss off a in debt customer. This information is bearish long term for Bank of America. Their customer service sucks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-ends-apf-1552456599.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Catalyst

What is gonna be the catalyst to push us lower? There has been heavy call buying today and the vix is extremely low. Gold and Oil couldn't make new highs and looked very weak. The weird thing is that the transports, nasdaq, and russel are breaking out to new highs. Typically this is a bullish sign because the dow is typically a laggard. We will see.

TLT Calls

I have an order for the Jan 22nd $90 calls at $3.00. Gonna see if they get hit today. This is a great entry for these options.

Good Read

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-hussman-rips-apart-cnbc

Dow Theory

Dow Theory states that anything below 10,725 is in the bear zone. So if we cannot close above this number then we are still in a bear market. Also the dow has gone up so much so fast it looks like it could break a steep trendline. Lets see what happens today.

BS

The bs continues. I have changed nothing.

Monday Gap? 3-08-10

Everybody is aware that most investors do their research on the weekends and place orders for Monday. This has been creating a gap up Monday phenomenon.

January 15-19 we had no gap up Monday we gapped down by 2 cents on the spy

January 22-25 we had a gap up of 50 cents on the spy

January 29- Feb 1 we had a gap up of $2.00 Dollars

February 5th- 8th we had a gap down of 80 cents

February 12th-16th we had a gap up of $1.74

February 19th- 22nd we had a gap up of 2 cents

February 26th- march 1st we had a gap up of 40 cents

That brings me today. Could the retail investors have gone home this past weekend and spoke with their family about selling. This would be a shift in sentiment that could not be measured. I believe a gap down today could be telling us something. Especially with the strength in Asia last night.

Earth Quakes

What in the hell is up with all the earth quakes. If someone can point to a time in history when we have had so many earthquakes i will send you a check for $20 bucks.

Short earth quake insurance companies. $5 dollar stop profit target $15.

Draw down

Draw downs are a part of trading. Being a good market timer is something that takes years of practice. Currently my timing has always been to early on shorting and to early on taking profits. Friday was probably my largest draw down. The feeling of bearishness on friday was unnerving. Thoughts of, could you be wrong definitely swirl through your head. Am i gonna go broke with this short position? Should i switch and go long?

This market is going to correct. When it decides to take out the lows in february it could get pretty nasty.

Short

Currently the account is short

Spy
MT
AZO
BIDU

Long:

Spy Puts
FSLR Puts
TLT
UUP
VXX

It is funny how much insider selling is going on today. It feels as if the bulls are shooting their loads today.

BIDU

Shorting BIDU at $517.60

AZO

Shorting AZO at $166.68

TLT

I own some January 2011 $90 calls and with TLT going down in price the last couple of days the value of the calls has been going up. This is a bullish divergence in my book.

Nasdaq Selling pressure

This courtesy of sentimentrader.com

China and HSI

Both of them sold off pretty hard last night. China is tightening or clamping down with new types of regulations on bank lending. Today could be very interesting.

Some of these triple short ETF's look like they want to break out.

The Euro

I really think everyone has became super bullish on the Euro. This is setting up for an extreme blow off top in US equities. I am pretty short now and have a few longs. Currently the portfolio is 100% short and 15% long. (Using Margin)

Will look to add more UUP, TLT, and VXX on any weakness tomorrow.

I really hate BIDU and lost about $10,200 on puts. So i am out of the trade and have a new respect for this stock. This morning small trades pushed this premarket open to $511-$512 area. Then the real market makers tried to fill the gap from the previous days close. The big boys stepped in and then sold the stock. I am going on record that BIDU never trades higher than it did on Monday. Also i am looking at shorting the hell out of this thing tomorrow on any strength.

Also i am still short MT.

Suckers Rally

Today was a retail investor rally. Some people/investors are going to get hurt real bad. We are at an extreme on less volume and declineing MACD. I have been short the spy since $111.50 and hold a nice size position in VXX.

Very Little Reason

There seems to be very little reason for stocks to go down. This is really starting to worry me.

MT

Shorting MT here at $40.91

Long Short Deflation Inflation

I find it fascinating how many experts can have so many differing opinions. I think it would be better to put a time frame when an opinion is given.

China PMI

http://safehaven.com/article-15966.htm

$3,000 rebate

Don't we already have this rebate? I know that i received a large tax credit for my solar installation and $1500 credit for new a/c. It isn't a rebate i know ,but what really is the difference.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35673393

GOOG

Shorting GOOG here at $542.90, $545 stop looking for $538 day trade

Clearing 25% TLT

I am clearing some of my TLT which i just recieved a dividend for and purchasing some VXX. I am not purchasing the entire lot here. Will place some ladder orders.

AZO

It looks like it is forming a false upside break out

Stunned

I am stunned at the market currently. This has been very tough to time and trade. Would not be buying equities here. One thing i have noticed is how crude oil has been a leading indicator. If we can't get a new high in crude i would be very worried about this rally.

Inetresting Article

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35639493

One quick note

This hot off the press
http://pragcap.com/insider-selling-hits-new-2010-high

Now this hot off the press
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35619902

Tracking insider buying and selling has been a great market timing tool. Unless you do it yourself then you may read these articles and get the wrong idea. There are tons of free services that will send you this data.

The insider selling for all of 2010 has outpaced buying by roughly 10 billion. So whoever wrote that piece for CNBC should get canned.

Gap up Monday Again

Just read a lot of economic data. It isn't pretty but we are still up. Today i will be traveling so when the market closes this is what i am focusing on.

Does GDX have a strong day compared to GLD

Does the market rally along with TLT rallying.

Does the $VIX close outside its 2 standard deviations.

Then at the end of the day look at the technicals for the $SPX, $DJI, $COMPX. Looking at the MACD and MACD lines. Also studying the volume.

Then finally looking at the 10-day NYSE advanced decline line, to see how overbought we are.

I am as short as i want to be and will do very little today.