MPEL

Watch MPEL this week i expect it to make a new high for the year this week. I belive they will destroy earnings. The are the best low debt casino operator in Maccau.

POMO Days

We have Nov 1st, 4th and 8th as the next pomo days.

Recap 10/29/10

We had less puts purchased than yesterday leaving the Equity only put call ratio at .55 with a higher VIX. This is a huge red flag! Be careful if you are long.

There were 11 new lows and 145 new highs bringing the ratio to .07. Chevron and V, look very weak to me. Also First Solar took a huge hit. It seems as if no one is hedgeing their bets.

Good Luck

RIMM

Watch out BELOW!

Asia Markets

The Asian markets have been down about 2% in the last three days while the US markets have been flat to slightly positive. I expect us to play a little catch up today on the downside.

Recap 10/28/2010

There was a big let down around 10:30. I guess the POMO operations weren't going as planned. Bill gross spoke publicly today on how the 30 year treasury will become extinct. Agreeing with him is like playing liars poker. Last time Bill Gross made this comment i was buying TLT under $90 a share. I bought TLT at $99.30 with a .3 stop and a $10 dollar profit exit today.

Today we had less puts purchased than the day before. Very strange. The vix is only sitting at 20 and we have all this excitement coming up over QE. Wouldn't everyone be hedging their bets! This is a giant game of life chess.

We had 14 new lows and 149 new highs today, lowering the ratio from yesterday. On April 26th 2010 we had 674 new highs. This is the highest ever recorded known to date. We have been flirting within 3 points of this the last couple of days and our new highs haven't been close. On October 25th 2010 we had 311, close to half.

How can this be when we are this close to a new high?

On Fast Money tonight i happened to see a an option broker reccommend shorting calls against the TLT. If i am thinking this trade through correctly this is extremely risky. Now selling covered calls if you owned the stock since $88 might be a good strategy ,but straight out shorting them?

Here Comes POMO

Watch out!

MPEL

I believe this one is gonna take off. They report on the 9th and i am putting a $7.36 price target on the stock.

Recap 10/27/10

Today we had 10,570,367 calls traded. Very close to the same amount as yesterday. We had some more puts to the tune of 6,738,838. About 500,000 more than yesterday. The VIX closed at 20.7.

Something very interesting happened today in that the Advance Decline ratio closed at 1.87. This is interesting because the market was showing so much strength. Every dip is being bought. There was 16 new lows meaning that the New Low MA has begun to flatten or even tick low. We had a put call ratio of .63.

Goldman Sachs had a bond offering today and i believe that a lot of the strength today fed off that. In addition, we have an anticipated POMO day tommorrow.

I am looking for weakness tommorrow to see if gets bought. Not gonna play it.

Today

We don't have POMO operations today less see if we can get a nice down day. We then have tommorrow, where the goverment will be buying and we can get long.

POMO

Wish i would have known about this earlier.

Recap 10/26/2010

Wow NFLX took off today with a negative MACD on the hourly, heavy insider selling again, and a technical negative divergence on the the daily chart. All it takes is one other company to step up to the plate and start offering this service. They wouldn't even have to buy Netflix; YouTube, Apple, or Microsoft could simply start doing what they are doing. If you are long this stock be very careful. I was dead wrong about BIDU last year and have stayed small with this one ,but i am watching this guy closely. Furthermore, if you listen to the conference call (which you can here http://ir.netflix.com/ ) they talk about the need to beef up networks to allow for streaming video. This could costs them millions and the need of a stock offering is a possibility.

Today we had:
10,685,000 calls traded compared to 9,434,528 yesterday
6,180,045 puts traded compared to 5,959,097 yesterday
leaving us with a .57 put call ratio, one thing that stood out to me today was a lower put call ratio and a higher VIX. The VIX closed at 20.23 compared to 19.86 yesterday. This means that investors are charging a premium for these puts. Also the call volume outweighed the past 4 trading sessions. We hadn't seen call buying like since 10/19/2010, then on the 10/20/2010 we opened down. Lets see if we gap down tomorrow?

Today was a positive session for the market. We were down big at the open and then we closed positive. We had only 126 new highs with 10 new lows, this tells me the market is gonna have trouble making new highs.

AAPL has yet to reclaim its pre earnings high of $319 or so. The insiders which have never sold their precious shares just began selling them. This is extremely bearish for the stock. If we break down below $305 i believe $290 is next.

FCX, which is a bell weather and great market indicator is also having a problem breaking through $100. A retracement of at least $85 is in the cards. I am watching the $93 dollar area for support and $98.50 as resistance.

Selling TLT Puts

i am selling some out of the money TLT puts here

AAPL and General Rants

There are rumors of a possible AAPL Sony take over. While this may just be rumor it is very interesting and bearsih for AAPL. In addition,the only company that has had almost no insider selling is AAPL. That all changed yesterday with 14,000,000 shares being sold by top execs. The top two sells were NFLX and AAPL.

We also boasted a nice .63 put call ratio yesterday with a nice size gap up. Which got almost got filled. Even though put volume was up so was call volume. Enough to warrant a gap down.

I wish i knew what would happen with the dollar after the G20. Wait, no i don't. I want to wait and see then fade the reaction!

My honest opinion is that the dollar needs to make new lows. The American consumer hasn't been pinched hard enough and inflation isn't out of control, yet. If you don't believe me ask Paul Volcker.

I always tell people it is easier to raise prices then let them go down. Once someone is used to paying a $1.00 for a Beer, Can Coke, ETC it very hard to lower that back 75 cents. Some people like to argue this point ,but what goes into making that coke or beer. A lot of people and resources. Companies have to allocate each percentage into making that product. Lowering the price is way more difficult than raising the price for these companies.

If you don't believe me look at a chart of Kellog (K). Sickly!

NFLX insiders

Typically the insiders have a good idea when a stock is overvalued. The old NFLX insiders took advantage of a good quarter and sold.

NFLX

There is a very interesting argument about NFLX. You can read all about it in pragcap.com . The picture above is worth a thousand words. Streaming video is the straw that broke the camels back.

Recap 10/21/10

On 10/21/10 there were 6,681,344 puts bought, on 10/20/2010 there was 7,372,409 puts bought, in addition on 10/19/2010 7,983,241 puts were bought. There were less calls being purchased also.

The VIX was 20.63, 19.79, and 19.27 respectively. Today was a very volatile day and we are at the top end of a range. Straight up for about a month the market has been with out even catching a breath. Net Flix has just said that the DVD market is partially saturated and that streaming video is the next growth area. Couldn't a small company like www.pandora.com start the same thing very easy. What about BIDU, GOOG, or AAPL, they will want a piece of this revenue also. Being an contriarion is very hard

Everything being equal the market is always right. Why is the VIX going down when volatility was so high today? Do investors not want a premium for their stock when selling these puts?

Puts

There was some puts being purchased but not enough. I would be a seller of calls on any strength tommorrow. I would suspect and true trend down tommorrow.

I am gonna sell some of my aapl calls tommorrow for a loss. My puts are out dated and i am gonna play aapl from the long side the next couple of weeks. Selling in the money covered calls on strength.

I sold my VXX yesterday as a day trade.

Still short sugar and getting hammerred.

AAPL in the mornin'

Looking at opening a short position for a quick scalp.

AAPL and VXX

I am going through each position and it looks like the upside calls on BIDU, AAPL, will be worthless. Looking at trade here, VXX in afterhours. There was a lot of pain inflicted in after hours and this will be worth more in the morning.

Still have the GOOG puts! paid for and profits taken. All the other positions were fully hedged.

Long VXX after hours

VXX

Clearing my covered calls on the VXX, also selling my puts and selling my stock holdings for VXX.

Earnings

I am playing aapl for earnings the same way I played goog.

I am buying the $320 november calls equal dollar amount to the january 2012 $250 put. So the upside and down side have equal weight. If AAPL blows out the numbers will sell the calls the next day.

We got BIDU reporting on 10/26/10, going to put the same trade on today. Buying the nov $105 calls and the jan 2012 $80 puts.

GOOG

They beat earning and i will sell my october calls at the open tommorrow. Will hold the puts, they are more than paid for and will not double down like i did the appl trade that turned into a bust.

VXX

I have sold the January 2012 $30 VXX call against my VXX position. If VXX gets to $30 i will happily get called out.

Weak Bond Auction

The goverment has been purchasing bonds. Today i believe is the first day treasuries were not bought. This could be a canary in the coal mine for no QE2.

Google

Playing Googles earnings today. Buying the October $550 calls and the November $540 puts. Could make money on both sides of the trade!

Call Buying

Today was an extreme for call buying. I am looking to close my VXX puts tommorrow.

We had 800,000 more calls bought in the last 30 minutes compared to yesterdays last 30 minutes. Really heavy call buying!!

Shorting some more SGG

I am shorting another small portion of SGG at $80.40

Complacency

This move should be faded. I am sitting on my hands and waiting

VIX

I am sure everyone is looking at this. This comes the very day i bought protection. The plan is to buy the puts hold the stock. Then when the vix spikes sell covered calls to help finance the puts. The calls will be near month out of the money calls.

This trade could be profitable on the upside and the downside. May even purchase more VXX puts on any spike.

VXX

i am buying protection on my VXX with the $15 march 2012 puts. If we get a spike in the $vix i can either sell VXX or sell covered calls.

SGG

This ETF is up 11% in 2 days? From what i have read sugar isn't going anywhere.

Insider Buy Sell Ratio

Below is the data from what the insiders were doing yesterdays. Some of the major sales went to GOOG, AZO, and ORCL. Now if the insiders are dumping these companies why would one want to invest long term going against the people that work there. Yesterday was not a record for insider outflows but was above the $50million 20MA. Also buys yesterday were below the 20MA.


10/7/2008
$23,876,621.00 Total $Buys
$280,656,623.00 Total $Sell
0.085074141

Yesterday i was tested a little on my option tracking. That is great because we could have been watching totally different data. Below is yesterdays data for EQUITY only on the CBOE.


10/7/2010 (This is neutral in my book)
9,341,983.00 Call
6,856,075.00 Puts
0.733899323 Ratio

Here is the 6th

10/6/2010
10,820,823.00 Calls
5,836,047.00 Puts
0.539334855 Ratio

Here is the 5th

10/5/2010
10,161,416.00 Call
6,006,272.00 Puts
0.591086124 Ratio

Tracking this is important because major players or holders will buy puts for protection or sell calls when overvalued.

The Benefit of Good number tommorrow

If we get good number tomorrow how can the fed QE more? That is exactly what lead to the sell off in the precious metal today. The dollar would then benefit A LOT. Which in turn is bad for most equities. I think there is a high probability we sell off hard tomorrow after the number.

SGG

Buying some december puts on this one. Also shorting another group of shares.

Sugar has been moving in violent gaps and is prone to go down in dollar strength.

Priced in Part 2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39548222

Once again i think buying gold here is late to the party and QE2 is priced in. QE3 is not an option, the rhetoric is changing and the risk reward is going short.

Priced In.

Is QE11 priced into the current price of Gold. I strongly believe so.

Bull case for Gold:
Endless printing of currencies
Inlfation hedge
Countries buying gold at a record clip
Not everyone owns gold

Bear Case:
If QE11 is priced how can the bulls possibly look at QE111
The dollar is stretched very hard on the down side and any correction could hurt Gold
The EURO is extremely stretched on the upside and is due for a correction, which in turn would hurt gold and help the Dollar

Currently i have been shorting silver and sugar. I am down on my Silver short and i have been waiting to add to the position but will probably hold on that. I believe SGG has a better risk return than SLV.

Call Buying

I keep track of equity call buying on the CBOE and today was extreme. We ended the day with a .58 equity only put call ratio.

Currently i am going out on margin to buy BGZ. I went into margin because i was short a significant amount of SLV. So currently i am 120% short and feeling very ancy. Lets see what happens would love to free up some cash.

Purchasing BGZ at $11.78 in after hours

Chevron Buy Back

This is a positive for the market. Any Buy Backs eat up supply.


These major gap ups and gap downs and 1-3% move on an intraday basis is a defining moment for a bear market.