Oil

I think the US is gonna become energy dependent. It may be a total farce but i believe we will be extremely creative.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/41835533

Raising Some Cash

I am gonna exit my amgn call today for a small gain. Also i am starting a hedgin strategy with the June 30th $60 QQQ puts.

Oil prices

Oil prices in general are a precursor for volatility not a recssion. We are going to test long term support according to k wave theory. This should happen earlier than last year around june 2011.

We are not in a reccesion quite yet, The united states is completetly fine $100-$110dollar oil. If we close below $100 on monday it would be quite bullish.

AAPL

Closing AAPL short for a loss

AMGN

Buying the March $50 calls at $1.79

Healthy Put Buying

There was some serious put buying yesterday. If we have another day of this type of put buying it would confirm a short term bottom.

AAPL

I am shorting a small portion of AAPL.

DF

Adding to Dean Foods around $10.10

COIN

I started my first position at $.36

MPEL

Just reported earnings and although they met all expectations the big kicker is that they grew revenues 93.3% in 2010 compared to 2009. They are attributing this to the opening of City of Dreams project. Which was only open for 6 months out of the year.

Now for 2011 it will be open for the entire year. This should easily put a .07-.08 earnings per a share price tag for MPEL going forward.

This should raise the price target to $10-$12 for 2011.

TLT

I was expecting to wake up and see the TLT trading at $92-$93 area. This isn't the case. I am now of the belief that no matter how bad the worlds economy gets the general public does not want goverment debt.

This could be a short opportunity to buy the TLT. I am looking very close at this trade again. There is now way i could be short the TLT here which makes me think to go long.

Over 50% increase in sales

http://www.convertedorganics.com/

This company is in a stealth bull market

COIN

I am creating a position in the above company

Social Mood

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/18/Moody-Blogs-and-Tweets-Give-Hints-about-Financial-Markets.aspx

Trying to quantify the social mood all i can say is this. Everyone is expecting a correction includeing myself. There are a lot of people dying to get back into the market. So if we test support it should be bought.

Current Market

I believe the psychology of the market is: We are gonna have a correction and when that comes i am all in. Every one wants in no matter the costs. That being said i believe it is a stock pickers market.

My largest holding in order are as follows
MPEL
DF
HBAN
SKF january 2012 $15 puts
NOK


When looking over these investments (I know the Puts are crazy idea but i believe 2011 is the year of the banks) i don't feel like the valuations are that far stretched.

Look at a Weekly chart of Dean Foods. At $10 bucks this thing is a steal. If food prices come down which they will this companies margins will go ricter and they have some serious pricing power.

Melcro Crown, this is a pure Macau play on the casinos. I currently believe that this one is on the verge of an upside breakout. China is starting a secular bull market very similiar to the united states in the late 70's. The chinese are in love with macau and so am i. Google map the city it is really cool place and will be an international destination for years to come. Melcro made money lasy quarter and report on wednesday. I belive they are going to blow out the numbers. I am buyer if they show any weaknes.

The banks are sitting in a sweet spot. They are flush with cash and able to borrow next to nothing and lend out at a higher interest rate. This isn't changing any time soon. The big money has been purchasing some large amounts of the C $5 september calls.

Currently have about 25% cash for this correction that the market needs. I read somewhere if it is a flash crash it would be in the bulls favor.

Gap Down

We have been gapping down every morning lately. I am trying a trade with spy puts before the close and spy calls at 10am. It has worked two days in a row. Lets see about tommorrow.

Line in the Sand

If the bears can get a close below $233.94 i think the bull run is over for Netflix

Fund Flows

Funds are flowing out of bonds and into everything except bonds and bonds.

A nice mini scare would be nice to open a short on the TLT

Nokia

I have bought more nokia at $9.30

NOK

I buying Nokia for a trade today. $9.55

Netflix

This thing is in a world of its own. I give up number two. I will stay way from Netflix the stock and simply use the service.

David Tepper

I have been following Tepper's fund. Some of his largest holdings are Dean Foods Df and Goodrich Tire. In a round about away I believe that he thinks we are headed for stagflation. This may seem contrary ,but these companies have been deeply discounted due to high input costs. Wheat, Cotton, and Rubber setting in some cases all time highs. These companies have had to raise prices to meet this challenge. If they get any type of lower input cost this could greatly increase profits.

Very rarely do you see the price of something going down. Once that box of cereal is $4.00 bucks rarely do the reduce the price even if input costs decrease.

MPEL

Melcro Crown reports after the bell. I sold calls against the position in january and had them expire worthless. This is my largest holding in the portfolio. Currently, I am looking to sell the position and replace that with the january $5.00 2013 calls. This will help me leverage the position and reduce risk.

Beating a Dead Horse

I hate to keep remarking on the same thing over and over again. In addition, i have done extensive research into the online TV viewing experience. Netflix is in big trouble. Not because the service is bad or inferior. The reason is competition. There are a lot of players coming into the market.

I have reopened a short line on NFLX with the March $210 puts. I currently got in around $12.00.

Time Warner came out publicly saying Netflix is paying enough for the shows. This will eat into margins,

Ford

I am selling the $15 feb 19 puts

Doug Kass

He sure does know how to predict stuff. This egypt unrest has me thinking of him today.