Top insider selling

here we go for today!!!

JBHT
HUN
COST
JOYG

Pretty solid companies here. That being said i would short the nasdaq here.

US Trade Protection

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34624743

This type of stuff isn'tgood for our trade balances.

Rydex Traders

Record Breaking Box Office sales

Could record breaking movie sales predict a top? I am using the next full moon a pivot point and a possible top. This would happen on the 29th whic tommorrow or really close. I also have Jan 6th as a date in the cycle. Now if we break 10,800 i will closely asses whether or not we will have a correction. I have been about 25% short and have been nibbeling on the short side lately.

Freddie Mac

There is an article in the Washington Post quoting Freddie Macs latest survey. Mortgage rates actually ticked up to 5.05% from 5%. They also predict 6% before the second quarter. This is great for the dollar and bonds. Bad for the market. We will see!!

Hugo Chavez

He may be the most idiotic president ever.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091223-713123.html

sentimentrader.com

Here is a really interesting graph from sentimentrader.com. He also talks about the market topping out with this health care package.

Reading a lot of stuff

I read a lot of different blogs and books. One of the more interesting blogs i read recently is one that is classfied as a conspiracy blog. His or her theory is that goverment is propping up the stock market until the health care bill is passed. The bill passed this morning and today is not going to be a huge sell off. Maybe after the first of the year. I have my eye on Jan 6th 2010 as the top.

AAPL

Purchasing some april $180 aapl puts small amount and i am gonna hold them for a while.

$tick

We had an opening tick of 900 which is an extreme

Put/Call Ratio

One indicator of extreme importance is the put/call ratio. Yesterday i was driving most of the day or would have noted it. We hit and extreme that hadn't been seen since december 2007. There were 6 to 1 calls over puts yesterday.

GDP

The GDP numbers were under the consesus, this would normally bode bad for the market. One thing that sticks out to me is the bad number and goverment spending. The reason this bodes so close to me is that i am in the service industry. My family owns an airconditioning company and they are going full tilt installing new air conditioners so homeowners can obtain tax credits. With all the goverment spending how can we have bad GDP numbers?

We are also still importing way more than exporting. This is a trade deficit and isn't good for us in a couple of ways. I recently read that the united states subisidizes sugar growers so we can pay $.22 a pound at the store. Sugar sells for $.06 a pound everywhere else in the world. Now this article was written in 2006 ,but it goes into detail how much this costs the goverment. This one bill runs about $150 billion a year. The article breaks out how many sugar growers there are in the united states. He concludes by saying we would be better off to pay these farmers $100k a year for the rest of thier lifes and payoff thier homes and give them each a Ferrari.

Vegas

I was asked last night if liked Vegas. I love Vegas because the odd are statistically better than the stock market. In Vegas you know the odds, in the stock market you don't.

Take a day like today. It is complete euphoria. Everyone thinks they will miss out on the rally. If you can learn to control your ego and always have a contrary point of view you can consistently make money.

This is a very interesting article that is getting no press.

www.shanghaidaily.com/article/print.asp?id=423054

Trading Next Week

We should have some volume on Monday then it really should dry up. I took some profits on very small portions ,but i am still long march spy $110 puts and February $111 puts. Also some VNO $65 dollar feb puts.


Traveling back to Nicaragua for the holidays and will be watching the markets while i am there. Hopefully we will have warm water and fun waves.

Short term i believe my shorts are going to cause some pain. There just isn't way to know. I will be watching the markets closely and cut my losses quick if i am wrong.

Go Jags

Come on jags let beat Indy.

There are a lot of reasons to be short here. That is making me think about clearing my short positions. I am sticking with my guns. Currently i am 75% short. This is done through puts mostly on the spy. The all expire in February or march.

Reason for being short:
1. We are under 10 ema on the daily chart
2. 10 ema crossed 20sma on the hourly chart
3. Tick down on macd histogram on daily
4. Large volumes of calls on the $vix being purchased
5. BAC. WFC, C dilution
6. European Banks
7. Greece
8. Dubai
9. Bernanke on the cover of time
10. Rydex Traders Bullish
11. Lots of call buying

Go jags

TBT

TBT has been a red position for me lately. I don't think it is gonna make it before tomorrow. The value has gone down about 80% and the loss was about 2% of my portfolio. Going to wait and see if i get lucky tomorrow.

$vix

Really heavy $VIX call buying for the month of February. Triple the open interest.

Also look at $40 calls for $VIX 1000 times the open interest

Europe

How does Europe work when one country cannot pay their bills. In the US the government would come in a help a state. Does the EU go in and help a country like Greece?

The capital is flowing out of the Euro's and into Dollars. This will make the dollar stronger and gold go down.

MACD

I have been patiently waiting for a tick down on the macd histogram on the daily chart. Yesterday we never received it, today we did. This was referred to me by Alexander Elder. www.elder.com I am now buying $110 spy February puts for a 1-2 month trade.

Cycles

I really think the full moon new moon could serve at least as a pivot point.

GOOG

Selling GOOG puts here for a nice daytrade.

GOOG

Picking up some $600 puts for this friday at $3.20 each. Very risky play here.

GOOG

Google is making a new high with a negative MACD. I know it seems that i am harping on the same thing but Nasdaq looks really weak here. Weaker than the S&P and the DOW.

USO

I have some uso $37 dollar calls that expire on friday. I am selling them here for a small loss even though USO is way up the premium and the fact they were out of the money is hurting me.

The Markets

This type of rally is so weak it makes me want to open short positions bad. We have weak bull power with MACD lines and MACD histogram. If this thing can't get some follow through with volume i will open bigger short positions.

The reasoning for my appl position is its relative weakness when compared to the overall market.

VXX

VXX is still in a contago issue. I have been stopped out numerous times on this position. I am getting back in with a small position of 100 shares at $35.72

USO

Selling half of USO for a nice gain. Bringing stop to break even at $35.80

Just opened a position in AAPL puts The jan $195 for $6.40 each.

Dollar

I wonder what would happen if the dollar starts to correct back down. This market could really take off.

New Moon

Tommorrow is a new moon. What is the cycle so far. Short on a new moon and buy on the full moon.

At first i didn't believe in this stuff but the earth and economy work in cycles. Lets see if this works this time.

10,800

I think it is critical for the DOW to close above 10,800 for the bulls. If we close above 10800 this would be a clear signal to buy as much gold, oil, and silver as you can. This would mean that a wave of inflation is coming faster than anyone would expect. The dollar is getting severely deflated and prices are going to rise on all commodity products.

If we close below this number it is sort of a neutral area. You could try and short the market with a tight stop or wait until a close above the number to go long.

Support: 10,000 8,800 8800 and 6200

Resistance: 11,800 10,800

Credit Default

This is main reason a stock market goes down. When a company, nation, or state, say that they cannot pay their debt. We have had numerous things happen in the most recent months and the capital inflow from governments have continued to save the day. There is little i see short term that could possibly worry the markets.

USO

Picking up some USO because:

1. 10ema crossed 20sma
2. Dollar is short term overbought
3. Oil is short term oversold

USO

Man it is really close to take for a trade here. Look at $36 for an entry

USO

Watch USO this week. On the hourly chart it is almost a buy. When the 10ema crosses the 20sma it is a buy. I also feel that it is so shorted it may pop hard to the upside.

Also i think FAZ is a sell here. Would look at puts.

Here is a neat website that i have just began to read. When i read things like this whether it is prechter or dent i like to put my own spin on it.

www.martinarmstrong.org

The Dollar

Going to buy GLD and USO calls and AAPL

The GLD $111. strike
The USO $37 strike
The AAPL $200 strike

I have two reasons for making these trades.

1. The dollar is overbought
2. Next week is option expiration and is typically a strong week

These are very small wagers and could turn into nothing. Also aapl has a nice cup and handle on the 60 minute 10 day chart.

GOOG

Taking some profit on GOOG puts and closing AAPL puts. Still dealing with the TBT masacre i entered.

TBT

I am holding all my Puts here. Inluding TBT.

The dollar hasn't budged and that tells me that something may be changing. We may make a new high on the indices but the fact that the dollar is strong tends me too believe the rally may be ending.

If dollar sells off hard i may change my stance.

Oil and AAPL

The only play i can see here is Oil. If the dollar falters then all commodities oil, silver, and gold should rally along with the market. The reason for looking at oil is that it is way oversold meaning more upside potential. Also Karen Finerman on fast money recommended it. Just kidding.

Anytime something moves down so fast most of time a correction bounce is in order.

Gonna lose some money on these puts at the open maybe they will give me a window to get out at a respectable price.

GOOG and AAPL were in the Wall Street Journal. They are becoming competitors in various areas. This is not good for the price for either one of these stocks. GOOG had a monopoly on search and AAPL wants a piece of the pie. Also AAPL had a nice semi monopoly on their smart phone and the DRIOD is doing really well. In addition AAPL is having serious problems with sales of the Iphone in China. The phone costs around $1176 dollars and the Wi-Fi cannot be used.

The trade for AAPL: If we get a break to $205 i will purchase the $200 march puts.

Futures

The futures and premarket is way up. Lets see what the bulls can do today. Maybe we can get a free ride for a couple of points.

Shorts

Well of the shorts i can close in after hours i am going to now. I have some FAZ that i can sell and i also closed half of my goog puts and aapl puts.

I made a mistake today and knew we were going to bounce. Tomorrow we will open up and probably rally hard.

I think that GOLD and OIL are buys here for a trade. I am purchasing UCO.

Tomorrow may push on some FAZ puts.

Today was miserable day to be bearish.

Today

Well today has not gone as planned. TBT puts are killing me here. Really cannot figure out a clear direction. I am down a little today and will probably hold everything overnight and think about the action today unless something happens.

Today we had a terrible treasury offering

Currently the TRIN is lowering below meaning a possible short covering rally at the end of day.

Low volume

So the only us bears have today is the worse than expected job numbers and the possibility of citi issuing billions of shares.

Currently the only green position i have is appl puts. RED accross the board otherwise.

$TRIN

Trin is on fire we are going lower all things being equal here. Just read 1.81

Mornings in a Bear Market

We gapped up nicely. We made some good profits on the spy calls. Now if my theory is correct we should get weakness throughout the day. This is because no one wants to hold their positions over night. So we have a rising TRIN which means the flow is into declining shares. Also a weak $tick. We have an exhaustion gap in the making also. I am purchasing TBT puts, SPY $109 puts, AAPL and GOOG puts here and Long FAZ and BGZ. I am fully leveraged for the down move.

This is what i call aggressively short.

WFC

Purchasing puts on WFC

TBT

Buying large number of $46 puts here.

We are Bouncing

Gonna clear all these calls on the open and look for a time to reshort. Typically next week is a positive week and i will keep that in mind.

Gold and The Dollar

Could Gold keep going up?

Calls

Picking up some calls here. No one wants to be short before the jobs numbers.

Stopped out for loss

Was stop out of my december 109 puts for a loss. Don't feel good being short here. Think we may have some good jobs numbers tommorrow with all the part time hiring for christmas.

lower lows

We are gonna goe lower today. Buying $109 spy dec puts on any bounce.

Down move

It was a fake out now we have rising trend in the TRIN. Now this isn't exact science but we just broke .70. I have closed my longs and if we break 1.0 on the trin will purchase puts. Hopefully we can get a push to $108.95.

Fake out

This move down feels like a fake out. We have an extremely low TRIN reading which means most of the flow or volume is going into advancing stocks. There are a couple big caps keeping the whole market down this morning.

Getting Long

Looking to get long this market around DOW 10200 or SPY $108.95. This would be for a small gain before reloading on shorts around 10,400 DOW or slightly higher. Would look at put/call ratios and small trader investor sentiment before reentering shorts.

What if this Greece thing blows over similar to Dubai and we get a rally, then right after the first of the year we have another event that strikes a sell off. We would have no January effect to look forward to. Higher taxes in 2010. Dollar possibly rallying with higher interest rates on the horizon. Could be a great shorting opportunity.

I am looking really close at VLO. The crack spreads for refiners are getting a lot better and these guys have been down for sooooo long. Currently i am looking to get into VLO on any weakness.

Morning Afternoon

I think we see strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon. We have some economic data coming up later this week and closing positions at end of day. Gonna clear spy calls a little later this morning then load up on spy puts for the afternoon. We are gonna open up so should see a small profit on 20 contracts. Not going to big on the swing overnight trades because the possibility of getting completely wiped out.

Watch the dollar here. If we get any pull back on UUP to $22.15-$22.3 area i would buy it. You could even go into march $22.00 calls.

Also i think the action in C was a precursor of what we will see very soon. GS is a target also the REITS.

We could get some strength next week with it being option expiration week.

SPY

Long Spy $111 calls small amount

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart for Spy- Overbought Stochastic
Flattening 10 EMA
We closed right on the 10 EMA
Bearish Divergence on MACD histogram
MACD crossed under signal Line
Low Volume Yesterday and High Volume Day Before
120 Minute 40 day chart-
Closed under the 10ema and 30 ema
We have a 10ema 20 sma cross (Short Signal)
MACD Crossed Signal Line
Way Over Sold

We are way down on the futures this morning. I am going to clear all my shorts on the open. We are gonna get a bounce maybe a rally going into next week and that should possibly set up a good shorting opportunity. I have been Dollar cost averaging into VXX in my retirement account. I believe this baby could double.

Look at the $Tick on the open. If we open way down and have a positive $Tick you could go long for a couple points trying to fill the gap.

$TRIN

The TRIN is slowly making new lows. So we have more money flowing into advancing shares. This could be bad for the bears. Have been stopped out of almost everything.

Daytraders

I would assume most of the day traders will start clearing their longs right after lunch time and before 3:00 would be a good time to clear shorts.

Bear Market

If my theory is correct about us having strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon we should sell off today after lunch. You would want close most of the shorts at close and look to reopen short positions tomorrow in the morning on any strength.

I am actually closing some of my spy puts and bringing the rest of my DEC $111 puts to a profitable stop. There are some things i need to work on. All in all was a great day trading. AAPL is so oversold here i expect a short term bounce and this could be a great time to re short. The $TRIN is still above 1.00 so the flow is going into declining shares. The $tick is still net positive so it really hasn't said much or given any clues about the rest of day.

Stops

Bringing stops to break even.

flow

Most of the volume is going into declining shares. This means we have few stocks holding up the broader market. If these stocks begin to decline we could get a down day. If the rest of the field starts turning up it could be bad for shorts today.

The market

The market is up but the $trin is showing that more money is flowing into dclining stocks

Short

short here at $111.50 spy. DEC $111 puts

$trin

The open we had all the money flowing into advancing stocks at a .3 reading. Also our high $tick is 248.

Small lot traders

Small option traders of 10 contracts or less are extremely bullish on the market. Creating a .4 put call ratio. This is a contrary indicator and leads me to be more bearish.

Large traders are extremely short here. With the nasdaq being the most shorted. Which goes hand in hand with technology leading the way down.

Short

Gonna add to shorts on any stregnth today. We could probably push to $112.00 today on the spy. Gonna buy the March $109 puts.

Also will look at the AAPL march $185 puts


Right now i am all cash except the TLT calls.

Will look for a low $tick at a new high today.

Weekend Reading

Sitting back reading my favorite blogs and subscriptions:

Here is my interpretation: We open with lower futures on Monday, they get pushed up to a mid morning high and that will be a great shorting opportunity. This will be met by a $trin reading of less than .8 or extreme of .4 like we saw on Friday. We could also see the mid morning high met with a weak $tick reading of 400 or less. This shorting opportunity we would want to close at end of day. Some stocks that look really weak are AAPL and GS. You could play these guys with puts for more leverage.

Longer term: We are finishing wave 2 and wave 3 will bring us to lower lows. You may miss out on a couple of points if you are long but we are way closer to the top than the bottom. For example: All indexes were considerably lower in 2003. We had much greater economic times and real estate was creating a massive bubble. Now we have horrid economic times and a stock market that is on fire. Warning: i am not a financial advisor, i am trader. So my plays are highly leveraged and highly risky. Mark to market is my game. If you were to ask me where to invest i would say, "Smith and Wesson." Unfortunately it wouldn't be the stock it would be the latter!

Seriously though, preserve cash and buy some long dated out of the money puts. Don't go crazy and try to get rich. For example, some Spy $109 March puts would be an excellent purchase on any bounce.

I find it extremely disturbing how bearish everyone is on t-bonds. That is why i picked up some TLT calls. This was a very small amount because i am probably wrong with this trade or too early.

I will leave you with this from a blog i read. "How disturbing would it be instead of a Christmas rally a Christmas crash."

$TRIN

The $TRIN keeps rising and new $TICK low would confirm we will get lower lows today.

Gonna clear all my shorts at the close and keep my TLT calls. This is the only play i see worth holding on to today.

I am an FSU fan so i hope the Florida gators get there buts kicked this weekend against BAMA.

Also the "Blindside" is a phenomenal movie. Would highly recommend getting out and seeing it this weekend.

UUP

Selling half of my UUP calls here. Clearing half GOOG puts and half AAPL puts

TLT

Picking up some TLT december 95 calls here. Very small amount

$TRIN

Trin just hit .43 short spy at $112.10

Short goog through puts

divergences

tons of divergences at the open

The TRIN hit 25 with market up. Not right super short here.

Scenario

We are gapping up huge on the numbers. BAC is selling off hard.

I am gonna play this like so. Since i am net short i am gonna open down. Looking at the $TICK and the $TRIN.

$TRIN- if we have a reading of below .80 this means that we have an extreme amount of money heading into rising shares. This will lead me to think the opposite

$TICK- if we have a reading that is less than 400 or negative this would lead me to believe that a small number of shares are holding the market up.

Also i doubt that traders want to hold positions over the weekend. $112.50 is my first target for short spy $595 is my first target for goog puts. $200 is my first target for aapl puts. $22.00 is my first target for uup calls.

GOOG

Buying GOOG puts here really soon. Looking at the $590 december will buy when we have a low $tick.

Bonds and Dollar

There was a rumor that japan might sell some of there t-bills yesterday. That is why the bonds didn't confirm the move low. Also we have news out of china that the dollar is the main reason for the economic problems. At first one would think this would be a sell signal. Aong the lines with BAC yesterday. BAC is repaying tarp funds "buy BAC". Wrong!

China wants a stronger dollar. They make more money if the dollar is strong. This is a buy signal for the dollar.

Bear Market

In a bear market, day traders and market makers do not want to hold stocks or equities in their portfolio overnight. So they sell there positions late in the day and buy positions early in the morning. This also works on a weekly schedule (Monday and Tuesday have strength). So i think we open lower on Friday (Tommorrow) then bounce with a little strength then sell off again into the close. This is what i foresee happening. I will close all short positions by 3:00 or earlier on Friday. I will go long a "very" small position of SPY calls depending on if the $TRIN closes below 1. This trade would be done at the close.

This is completely opposite in a bull market. We have been in a bull market until about three weeks ago. This theory has been working pretty nicely. This is the only reason i didn't close my huge short position on Wednesday. I was about to puke i was down so big. So i doubled down and look at finishing the week better than the Dubai week. This is rare form for me.

Some of the stocks that look very weak are AAPL, GOOG, GS, WFC, and IYR. Also my UUP calls have yet to perform ,but i think tomorrow will be a different story.

Technically i trade off the hourly chart, 30 minute chart, and Daily chart. We had the 10 ema cross down through the 20sma on SPY. This is go short for me and go long inversely depending on the direction. We did this today on all of the above stocks.

Success

I really think we open lower tommorrow and a bounce should be shorted. Well i think the signal to short the market came in when, we gapped up and did not have a confirming tick. All the money was flowing into lower stocks. This was confirmed by the $trin.

Have a good night!

Longer term we have yet to close below the 10ema on the daily. Once we do that it could be a green light to short some more.

$TRIN

The TRIN is reading that most money flow is going into declining stocks today. This is bearish in that we opened up. Also the Tick high and Low is in a tight range consdering, that we made new highs. This tells me very few stocks are bringing the market up. If we get a new tick low it could mean lower lows for today.

Still Short

Was not able to trade yesterday and i am giving back a lot of the gains in the past few days. Gonna watch the tick on the open and see if they can push the spy above $112.00. This is should be a good level to short.

One Bad Apple

Can AAPL ruin the whole stock market. I find it doubtful but i bet you there is 9/10 chance we open lower tommorrow because of this sell off.

Why was AAPL selling so hard into the close?

Volume

We are on track to have less volume today than we did the day after thanksgiving.

Today i am pretty down and have opened extremely large positions. This could definitely make or break my year. I normally do not like to gamble like this but the market has so many divergences i can't help my self.

Daily: extremely overbought, low volume, MACD histogram and Lines are showing bearish divergence.

Hourly: We are going up on low volume and haven't broke through resistance

Russell and Transports have not had follow through

Banks are severely lagging also.

This is an extremely risky play.

Shorts

I added to my very red short position here and also bought UUP calls $22 December at $.20.

We are up against tough resistance here and believe even though we have a rally going into a full moon or at least a bottom it won't work here. The news on AIG was read yesterday ,but i doubt it has hit CNBC yet. This will be the straw that breaks the camels back.

AIG

I read a pretty disturbing article about AIG. They could be on the hook for billions of debt.

Also i am gonna be pretty red this morning. May have to close and take a nice chunk out of gains. It is gonna hurt, we will see.

Final Trade

Bonds were on fire into the close. Also the overall bullishness leading into the last 5 minutes lead me to open some SPY Puts. I took on a large position and we will see if it plays out. One of the main factors was the use of "Resilency" I kept hearing that word today. Also the last 2 bars on the spy 5 minute chart were huge sell bars with volume. Bought the January $109 puts for $3.20 each. Still have my UNG and TBT although they may be a wash.

TBT

Buying some $45.00 TBT calls here. Really think TLT is very short term overbought. December $45 dollar strike.

Joe Terranova

As far as I'm concerned, the resiliency of this market on Monday says to me the bull market remains in tact, muses Joe Terranova. There were plenty of reasons for stocks to trade much lower and they're off the lows.

This statement above makes me want to short the market.

UNG and Market

Cannot seem to get my hand on the market today. I still have UNG and will hold overnight. I think for now the safest place is cash and let the market decide the outcome. I simply can't see the market selling off here before the end of the year. I don't see it going higher though also. We are aproaching oversold and the put buying is extreme. The best thing for now is to sit on the sidelines with my huge profit from last week.

Put Call

There are some extreme put buying here which makes me want to get long.

Also a large number of GLD puts were purchased way out of the money $100 dollar strike december 2009.

$TICK

Gonna watch the $TICK at the open. If we open down and have a positive $TICK i will close shorts immediately. This means that only a small part of the stocks are holding the market down. If we open up and have a negative $TICK i would hold until i can get out of shorts at a reasonable exit.

The German DAX opened up and quickly sold off. I suspect the US markets will follow suit.

DAX

With the German DAX being down i thinking we may trade lower today and bounce on tuesday.

Buying UNG on the way down here. Best purchase was $9.28

Lunar Trading

We have a full moon coming up. The trend has been to short on the new moon go long on the full moon. I am going to cover my shorts and look to re short at a better period. I am picking up UNG premarket at $9.48 it signaled a buy when the 10ema crossed the 20sma on the 30day hourly chart. On the daily we are above the 10 ema on the weekly we have a bullish divergence with MACD lines and histogram. Also volume is subsiding on the way down which is a bottoming signal to me.

Longer term i think we can look to short the market really hard after January 6th. Will probably do some day trading. Hopefully we can get a maximum overbought scenario in the next couple of weeks. This will set up to be the best shorting opportunity of the year.

Weakness

If we have any weakness on the open i will look to close some of my small short position.

Currently i am looking at UUP calls. The january $22 strike.

The dollar

The dollar is the most shorted currency. I think this little scare will make traders close the short dollar positions. I have closed my UNG calls for a scalp and i am opening AAPL $200 December puts and $110 spy puts. Gonna open small positions here and larger positions on Monday.

Nice friday going shopping on black friday

Well that is the most money i have ever made in one day. Closed all my short positions. Went long UNG december $9.00 calls.

Other than UNG i do own VXX in my retirement account. This little bounce should set up for some more short positions.

New highs and new lows

Sitting here reading the wall street journal with my ruler. Marty Schwartz in pit bull recommended measuring the new high new lows for the NYSE. When the new highs measure over 12" it is time to get short. Well it is way over 12" and i am gonna get more short.

Watching the futures make a come back and i have sold my triple short ETF's. Gonna add to my spy puts today. Think we are setting up nicely to get even more short!!

Wanted to take some profits this morning. Will look to add when i think the market is short term overbought. Which could happen by 10:00am.

Gold

Gonna watch gold and gold mining shares. The miners have been under performing the actual gold bullion. Will look to sell short GLD here shortly and go long DZZ. Currently have DZZ but would like to add to the winning position.

11-26-09

Need to figuire out whether to take profits or let it ride over the weekend. This is a damn good problem. All of the losses over the last two months are instantly erased.

Feeling pretty damn good

11-26-09

I really think gold hit all time high "short term yesterday. " It looked like a blow off top to me. Also the dollar looked like it a blow off bottom.

I added to my short positions yesterday and i am 180% short. I have leverage in my margin accounts so i can borrow money to increase my gains(or losses)My wife's accounts are now 100% short also through triple leveraged ETF'S. This is so she can benefit at 3 times without the margin. I added the last bit of money for her yesterday into VXX. We bought 400 shares at $37.95.

Reading the international news Dubai is defaulting on their debt. This is huge and all foreign indices are selling off hard and the dollar is rallying. We are in a global market and this will effect us come Friday and Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving

TLT

Take a look at TLT. Now this is a bond fund. You buy bonds for safety.

Goldman Sachs

The market is up 50 points and people are selling Goldman Sachs. This is americas bank? What is going on now. There are so many bearish divergences.

Russell not making new highs
Banks not helping with this rally
MACD and MACD histogram along with RSI diverging on the daily basis

The put/call ratio is in favor of the bulls. Which i take as a bearish indicator

VXX

Wish i could buy VXX here. It goes against my margin call and i am leveraged to the max with $VIX call options. Gonna open down a little here with the account.

11-24-09

The german DAX is selling off here. We could push lower on the open

11-24-09

Something isn't right here with the market. There is just to many bulls and the bonds have been on fire. I don't care if the employment numbers are better than expected.

The stock market and bonds can't keep going up together. Something has got to give!!!!

11-24-09

Gold makes a new high dollar is low again. When this thing unravels it is gonna be nasty. The fed realeased minutes and the rhetoric was very bearish.

Don't think we will move to much short term here. I expect some kind of move on monday.


We have unemployment numbers today it will be interesting to see if we get >500,000.

Huge buyer of BAC and GE calls yesterday.

11-24-09

Some thoughts:

China sold off hard last night. I stayed up late watching the action. They were down 3.3%

Put/call ration was .5 yesterday. So that is 2 to 1 calls. This is a bearish indicator

We broke out to a new high on the DOW and no other index made a new high

Oil went down as the dollar tanked

Gold made a new high then sold off in the last 5 minutes 1%

Bonds rallied into the close and made new highs in after hours

Right now the futures are up. This could be a nice shorting opportunity. Everyone is waiting on the GDP revision. We have that coming out at 8:30am. After this we have employment numbers coming out on wednesday.

11-22-09

Today was the top

11-21-09

Just finished reading Robert Prechters November issue of the Theorist. I wanted to sum it up by heading.

Markets- The smart money is leaving the market and we are about to turn down into wave three. We currently are in primary wave 2. We have had our highest reading on gold bullishness.

Inviduals are begging to invest into municpal bonds. This is a bad idea because the bonds may not be able to be paid back by the counties and states that wrote them. Don't own muni bonds!

Banks are in trouble because of mortgage deliquencies. They have lent to many people who can't repay the loan. These people are walking from the loans. This is even happening if the person can repay the loan. This leads the bank with the loan which has deflated in value creating a deflationary scenario.

Banks have been lending more to consumers than to business which is a mistake.

10% of all loans are done by private firms or individuals. The rest or 90% are done by the goverment.

www.elliottwave.com make sure to check out the website and suscribe.

11-21-09

Do you ever feel "de ja vou". One of the main reasons i write this blog is to track my thoughts. Currently i feel like oil is gold back in 2008. Remember oil is going to go to $300 dollars a barrel. I sure do and that is where gold is now. Gold is going to have a nasty decline and I wouldn't bebuying it here or shorting it. The time to short gold is when everyone and their brother buys it and it has what i call a blow off top. That is when the shorts get a nasty sqeeze and it goes to $1300-$1500 an ounce. This will most likely coincide with a top in equities and the start of a nasty bear market. We will see that happen and that will be clue to short gold and the equity markets.

We are very close to that now.

11-21-09

Below is a big post. It shows the specific companies of insider selling. It has a link to J3SG services. The service you can sign up for is free.


Daily Summary- Sell View
J3SG
Created : November 20, 2009, 10:00 pm
Ticker
Company Name
Last Close
Sells Today
People Selling
Total Shares Traded
Total Value Sold
3 Month Sells
Sells
People
Shares
DG
Dollar General Corp
23.21
4
4
19,350,057
$395,958,657
0
0
0
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
33.28
2
2
6,000,000
$193,500,000
0
0
0
ABVT
Abovenet Inc
53.57
1
1
720,000
$37,728,000
11
3
114,509
URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc
32.18
6
3
792,904
$26,223,058
6
3
1,730,000
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc
49.51
1
1
300,000
$14,872,830
12
8
763,486
LNCR
Lincare Holdings Inc
35.38
1
1
300,000
$10,587,000
3
2
290,000
IACI
IAC/Interactivecorp
19.41
2
1
325,200
$6,395,438
34
1
8,106,200
EMC
EMC Corp
17.04
3
3
298,000
$5,140,050
6
5
675,732
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
170.01
1
1
25,000
$4,409,438
1
1
16,129
SHOO
Madden Steven Ltd
37.8
2
1
100,000
$3,983,441
1
1
7,500
CXW
Corrections Corp of America
24.15
5
1
98,800
$2,513,240
3
3
170,748
CLR
Continental Resources Inc
36.75
1
1
41,951
$1,651,946
2
1
15,000
EME
Emcor Group Inc
24.56
2
1
59,100
$1,537,492
5
4
129,504
CRTP
China Ritar Power Corp
4.68
2
2
604,462
$1,293,548
3
1
122,500
IBKC
Iberiabank Corp
54.55
2
2
17,375
$944,052
0
0
0
CMP
Compass Minerals International Inc
65.73
1
1
14,000
$914,760
1
1
14,239
STNR
Steiner Leisure Ltd
41.47
2
2
20,000
$833,506
12
7
79,561
GEO
Geo Group The
20
1
1
30,000
$614,991
3
3
87,000
CLH
Clean Harbors Inc
54.46
1
1
11,100
$613,608
2
2
1,100
URS
URS Corp
43.08
1
1
13,333
$588,952
1
1
886
IBM
International Business Machines Corp
126.96
1
1
4,500
$570,430
7
4
161,582
NETL
Netlogic Microsystems Inc
41.61
2
2
13,000
$563,224
3
3
27,333
IRBT
Irobot Corp
14.23
1
1
38,115
$532,467
25
5
188,771
WAG
Walgreen Co
38.97
1
1
11,441
$445,741
7
4
29,890
GR
Goodrich Corp
60.85
1
1
6,908
$417,893
0
0
0
HSIC
Schein Henry Inc
50.53
1
1
6,000
$390,120
1
1
6,000
TJX
TJX Companies Inc
38.8
1
1
10,000
$390,000
3
2
92,500
VKSYE
Viking Systems Inc
0.006
1
1
420,000
$388,400
0
0
0
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
6.95
1
1
53,328
$383,962
0
0
0
MWE
Markwest Energy Partners LP
24.33
4
1
15,000
$367,494
1
1
300,000
STMP
Stamps Com Inc
9.4
6
1
37,000
$351,418
15
3
138,243
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc
30.59
1
1
10,817
$346,144
17
3
69,598
CSL
Carlisle Companies Inc
32.68
1
1
10,000
$328,000
0
0
0
DW
Drew Industries Incorporated
20.25
1
1
15,000
$315,215
12
5
74,100
IMGN
Immunogen Inc
8.35
2
1
35,680
$300,051
4
2
240,000
SUF
Sulphco Inc
0.94
2
1
300,000
$290,978
4
1
2,151,728
FOSL
Fossil Inc
31.88
2
2
8,581
$278,783
12
5
537,280
GD
General Dynamics Corp
66.47
1
1
3,961
$267,454
13
11
339,761
APT
Alpha Pro Tech Ltd
5.2
1
1
50,000
$255,500
5
4
270,000
LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corp
22.06
1
1
10,000
$230,000
9
3
4,643,500
EXPO
Exponent Inc
26.63
2
1
8,200
$218,859
15
1
94,547
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
45.1
1
1
4,667
$211,887
41
6
1,156,875
EW
Edwards Lifesciences Corp
81.25
1
1
2,500
$202,575
15
6
188,726
ANAT
American National Insurance Company
99.31
1
1
2,000
$195,000
0
0
0
OPLK
Oplink Communications Inc
17.76
1
1
10,000
$175,100
0
0
0
PRPX
Portec Rail Products Inc
8.95
1
1
17,621
$166,132
0
0
0
CPY
CPI Corp
12.05
4
2
13,400
$162,442
65
4
489,144
WPC
Carey W P & Co LLC
26.99
3
1
5,806
$158,046
0
0
0
BBND
Bigband Networks, Inc.
3.66
2
2
40,000
$149,500
7
1
53,311
MMS
Maximus Inc
46.49
1
1
3,024
$141,103
6
2
32,050
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
83.88
1
1
1,625
$138,873
3
2
7,000
DGIT
DG Fastchannel Inc
26.9
1
1
5,000
$137,500
2
1
7,000
CVM
Cel Sci Corp
1.3
1
1
100,000
$134,500
0
0
0
DWA
Dreamworks Animation Skg Inc
32.58
1
1
3,879
$130,253
4
2
107,440
HCP
HCP Inc
30.03
1
1
4,277
$128,353
1
1
4,880
TUP
Tupperware Corp
46.49
1
1
2,516
$117,531
34
16
694,620
ACFN
Acorn Factor Inc
7.37
2
1
14,135
$108,253
2
1
180,000
IO
Ion Geophysical Corp
5.66
1
1
18,452
$105,176
0
0
0
FSYS
Fuel Systems Solutions Inc
48.73
1
1
1,875
$97,275
2
2
5,368
MORN
Morningstar Inc
47.92
1
1
2,000
$96,770
57
4
358,876
AVD
American Vanguard Corp
7.08
2
1
10,900
$79,970
4
1
34,700
VSAT
Viasat Inc
30.41
1
1
2,464
$74,187
0
0
0
LRY
Liberty Property Trust
30.22
1
1
2,253
$69,775
3
3
140,340
RDYN
Replidyne Inc
0.78
1
1
14,350
$69,144
1
1
3,766
ISBC
Investors Bancorp Inc
10.77
1
1
6,207
$68,434
1
1
5,000
FCFC
Firstcity Financial Corp
7.64
1
1
8,600
$67,080
0
0
0
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corp
13
4
2
4,770
$63,178
9
3
10,383
DTSI
Digital Theater Systems Inc
29.99
1
1
2,000
$60,401
0
0
0
NATI
National Instruments Corp
28.28
1
1
2,044
$57,743
31
3
73,598
CRED
Credo Petroleum Corp
9.98
1
1
5,619
$56,808
0
0
0
PCAR
Paccar Inc
38.49
1
1
1,200
$46,224
6
4
452,689
DEST
Destination Maternity Corp
20.2
2
2
2,200
$45,100
0
0
0
ASI
American Safety Insurance Group Ltd
14.47
1
1
2,500
$36,095
1
1
5,000
ISH
International Shipholding Corp
34.52
1
1
1,000
$36,000
18
1
59,095
RTEC
Rudolph Technologies Inc
6.85
1
1
5,319
$35,356
1
1
800
PSSI
Pss World Medical Inc
19.68
1
1
1,541
$30,820
4
2
15,210
PHM
Pulte Homes Inc
9.46
1
1
3,000
$30,120
3
2
130,000
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
38.54
1
1
719
$28,544
12
2
71,900
JAX
Alexanders J Corp
4.04
2
1
6,760
$27,644
0
0
0
MRM
Merrimac Industries Inc
9.3199
1
1
2,500
$23,011
0
0
0
CLFD
Clearfield Inc
3.3
1
1
6,000
$19,020
0
0
0
CTWS
Connecticut Water Service Inc
22.8
1
1
827
$18,905
1
1
735
ELY
Callaway Golf Co
7.1
1
1
2,324
$16,500
0
0
0
PNX
Phoenix Companies Inc
3
1
1
4,300
$12,986
2
1
150,627
AMRI
Albany Molecular Research Inc
8.3
1
1
1,500
$12,075
0
0
0
STRT
Strattec Security Corp
14.7
1
1
600
$8,718
0
0
0
XXIA
IXIA
6.67
1
1
1,261
$8,676
4
3
30,860
NWK
Network Equipment Technologies Inc
3.88
1
1
2,000
$7,815
0
0
0
KFRC
Kforce Inc
13.49
1
1
519
$7,240
4
2
64,400
AVGN
Avigen Inc
1.42
1
1
5,000
$7,161
1
1
472,200
VSCP
Virtualscopics, Inc.
1.17
1
1
5,900
$6,965
6
1
30,881
HKN
HKN Inc
3.46
1
1
1,484
$5,197
0
0
0
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
34.58
1
1
146
$5,110
10
4
49,182
OLCB
Ohio Legacy Corp
1.25
1
1
4,600
$4,370
0
0
0
DLOV
Daleco Resources Corp
0.18
1
1
10,000
$1,500
4
1
21,815

11-20-09

The 10ema is about to cross the 60 ema on the spy. Very bearish indicator

11-20-09

Treasury yeilds turned close to zero yesterday. The last time this happened we were one month out from the crisis.

11-20-09

Found an interesting artice where the margin requirments for forex accounts will reduced from 100% to 25%. This could clear some of the shorts on the dollar. We have option expiration today and could have a bounce day. Once again i am stressing that trend as been the completely wrong lately.

China and Japan were down along with Hong Kong

Europe is all up here, looking to find out why. Futures are up fractionally here also.

All commodities are down here. They have been leading indicators for the economy. Tell me waht gold is doing and i can tell you what the dollar did and what the market did.

Banks were really hurt in japan. We are a mirror image of japan right now.

11-19-09

Is it possible the new health care bill could really hurt supplemental insurers like aflac?

11-19-09

Well the jobless claims came out this morning. They were better than expected ,but i believe the street wanted the weekly number to be under 500,000. We didn't get it. Now i said this again last week and we rallied so we could do the same this week. All in all having the market do the same thing two weeks in row is almost impossible. This thing has gotten so tricky that trying to short tops is very hard.

The best thing to do is either hold the short position or wait of a break of 1102 on the SP500 or 10,360 on the DOW.


I am short and have been short the past two weeks. The only thing that has saved me is daytrading for small profits. Of course i am looking at serious red positions that are my swing trades. We got real close to be stopped out on these monday.



Adios

11-19-09

Albert Einstein once said that the definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Through that lens, the current course of fiscal and monetary policy is absolutely insane. Smart Money 11/18/09.

Currently i feel isolated. I keep telling people to sell there stocks and possibly enter short positions through SH, VXX, FAZ, and SRS. I have stopped emailing people with my recommendations and telling people what to do with thier money. Simply i look at them and nodd. If they ask i tell them, but they don't like my reponse. A few people have listened to me and sold and they now want to rebuy. Feeling like we are in a bull market. One thing i know from experience is,"Losing money hurts way more than missing out on a big move."

It all comes down to this! We are going to correct in the next month or two. Stocks go down way faster than they go up. So sell now and rebuy in september or october of next year.

11-19-09

Well whoever bought all of those USO puts is gonna be happy this morning with oil down two bucks. The order was for 1200 november 40 puts. Very risky play but confirms that there are people who know what is going on before it happens. My job is to ride the coatails.

The boyz at goog were selling like crazy yesterday. The CFO sold 100 million in stock.

GS, AFL, IAC, TUP, and many others were being sold like crazy also. The highest daily dollar amount i have seen.

Still have yet to figuire out why the REITS were doing so good into the close yesterday.

The Nikkei sold off hard last night. Europe is down pretty good also. They are about 2 hours into trading at this post.

Looks like the Dollar is up and Gold is way down along with oil. The Gold miners are the ones really taking it on the chin.

My short portfolio should be way up at the open if all stays the same.

11-18-09

Well USO puts were being bought like crazy. We have option expiration in 3 days. They were the $40 dollar strike options, puts. In order for the price of oil to go down we would need a rise in the dollar. Went short SPG with puts it was on a tear today. We will see. All in all a pretty lousy day trading on my part. Couldn't get any real good market direction.

Real estate was on a tear into the close.

11-18-09

Insiders are selling Toll Brothers like crazy today

11-18-09

Call buying for the DOW was 2 to 1 within the first 30 minutes the market was opening. This is a bearish indicator for me. We will see.

There is also talk of a no correction now. That usually means we are gona get a correction.

The daycare near my office is closing down. There are so many people out of work they can't keep the doors open. The news last night said that double the number of people are entering food kitchens. Amazing double!

There is a lot of bearish divergence here. The russel and transports are not making new highs. Everyone is talking about this so i am gonna discount it. Keep in mind that in a turning point the DOW which has easy exit and entry points is the last to go down.

11-17-09

The CPI and Housing starts numbers came out. Will look to reshort at 10:00am.

11-17-09

On monday we had a huge intermarket reversal. I think a bunch of traders jumped on the short side including me. Everyone expected the market to sell off today including me. Today i didn't lose money neither yesterday. I am net short here.

It would be very interesting if we sold off tommorrow. Everyone has been saying since it is option expiration week we should show strength. We are always strong the week before thanksgiving. Well what if everyone is wrong? What if we sell off like a waterfall this week.

Well i think it would be good for me ,but it would catch a lot of people off guard. This is exactly what the markets want to happen. The markets want to punish the most people possible. It looks to me that everyone jumped on the longs into the close. Lets see what happens.

Some insider selling of GS, HAL, AFL, and WMT after the bell.

11-17-09

What the F$$ck
http://www.detnews.com/article/20091117/METRO/911170327/1411/METRO02/Silverdome-sale-price-disappoints

11-17-09

Take a look at this.
http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/jim-chanos-is-bearish-on-china.html

We had a new moon exactly at 2:14pm yesterday. Take a look at what the market did around that time. Yes i went short at this time.

I had to close some of my short option because we were approaching option expiration. I used this money to buy FAZ. The banks are going to have issue new shares to meet the new capital requirements.

Adios

11-16-09

http://pragcap.com/insiders-still-very-bearish-on-their-own-companies

Take a look

11-15-09

We are in a topping process and it is very frustrating. Good luck with the longs. Be careful with the shorts try to not overtrade and lose your profits.

11-15-09

Would the United States start a war to help economic recovery:


And Chalmers Johnson - Professor emeritus of the University of California, San Diego, and former CIA consultant - writes:

This is military Keynesianism — the determination to maintain a permanent war economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic product, even though it makes no contribution to either production or consumption.
This ideology goes back to the first years of the cold war. During the late 1940s, the US was haunted by economic anxieties. The great depression of the 1930s had been overcome only by the war production boom of the second world war. With peace and demobilisation, there was a pervasive fear that the depression would return. During 1949, alarmed by the Soviet Union’s detonation of an atomic bomb, the looming Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, a domestic recession, and the lowering of the Iron Curtain around the USSR’s European satellites, the US sought to draft basic strategy for the emerging cold war. The result was the militaristic National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68) drafted under the supervision of Paul Nitze, then head of the Policy Planning Staff in the State Department. Dated 14 April 1950 and signed by President Harry S Truman on 30 September 1950, it laid out the basic public economic policies that the US pursues to the present day.

In its conclusions, NSC-68 asserted: “One of the most significant lessons of our World War II experience was that the American economy, when it operates at a level approaching full efficiency, can provide enormous resources for purposes other than civilian consumption while simultaneously providing a high standard of living”.

With this understanding, US strategists began to build up a massive munitions industry, both to counter the military might of the Soviet Union (which they consistently overstated) and also to maintain full employment, as well as ward off a possible return of the depression. The result was that, under Pentagon leadership, entire new industries were created to manufacture large aircraft, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and surveillance and communications satellites. This led to what President Eisenhower warned against in his farewell address of 6 February 1961: “The conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience” — the military-industrial complex.

By 1990 the value of the weapons, equipment and factories devoted to the Department of Defense was 83% of the value of all plants and equipment in US manufacturing. From 1947 to 1990, the combined US military budgets amounted to $8.7 trillion. Even though the Soviet Union no longer exists, US reliance on military Keynesianism has, if anything, ratcheted up, thanks to the massive vested interests that have become entrenched around the military establishment.

11-13-09

1 to 1 put to call ratio today. The market doesn't know which way it wants to go.

11-13-09

Well europe was up until the GDP numbers came out then it very quickly went negative.

The shanghai composite was up on hopes that Yuan would not be pegged to the dollar.

Nikkei was down today.

ASX was down.

Hang Seng was up.

All of europe is down which was up yesterday. US markets sold off yesterday.

France had some real pathetic GDP numbers. The most important thing i read on the numbers was consumption was down by half. This is huge for bears.

My outlook here is short. If you overlay a lunar cycle on the stock market you have a sell off on every full moon. We have a full moon very close. Typically i would discount this but the more i have read i tend to lean on it a little more. We have strong long term resistance here.

Please read the article below.
http://pragcap.com/must-read-did-the-nation-overdose-on-debt

We could bounce today and it would be a good idea to add to shorts here.

11-12-09

We have 1.28 calls to every put today. Far surpassing yesterday. We have a lot of bulls out there and i think this is a bearish indicator.

11-12-09

Lots of call buying again today. Would love to see us make new highs on a lower RSI reading.

11-12-09

I think everyone wanted a 400,000 handle on the jobs and they didn't get it.

http://www.fxsolutions.com/learning-tools/market-directions.asp?file=20091109

the above article explains what is really going on in china.

I am net short here and adding to SRS on any dips.

11-11-09

Any trading strategy which becomes dangerously overcrowded eventually becomes a losing strategy, regardless of whether the assets involve currencies, commodities, real estate, equities, or anything else. The currently trendy carry trade has caused a dangerous undervaluation for the U.S. dollar, along with a dangerous overvaluation for crude oil, gold, and emerging-market funds. While we are likely to see a sudden unraveling in the near future, this will probably be followed by even more absurd extremes for all of the above assets during the coming winter and/or spring of 2010. Once the carry trade has become practically the only game in town, it will unravel even more dramatically than had been the case in 2008, and will lead to a far worse global recession. The currently detested U.S. dollar will become the king of worldwide currencies by 2012, while most general equity indices will slump to their lowest levels since the mid-1990s. The stock-market crash of 1929 may have dominated the headlines, but the global economy by July 1932 had become far worse. Last year was merely a preview of what we are going to experience in 2011 and 2012. As long as you are prepared, you will be able to benefit from what will likely be the worst equity and commodity bear market since 1930-1932.

The above is from Steve Jon Kaplan he can be reached at truecontrarian.com


I sure do feel better after reading something like this. Made some modest gains today shorting spy off the open for $.80 then went long LVS for a $.50. Took the opportunity to add to SRS and VXX.

We have jobless claims tommorrow at 8:30. I think we go under 500,000 for the first time. At this news i expect the market to rally. Will add to short positions around 10:00am.

Call options outpaced put options 2 to 1 today. This typically is a bearish indicator.

Russell 2000 had a pretty lousy day

Transports failed to break key resistance.

My undertsanding of this carry trade is this. Big money managers can borrow for nothing right now. This means they borrow the dollar and invest in big name companies where the can get out relatively fast in case it goes against them. Also money managers borrow the dollar, short it, and buy other apreciating currencies. This works fine until it doesn't anymore. All i hear and read about is the dollar. It is nerve racking. When this house of cards comes down i hope i am short enough to take full advantage.