Thursday, December 3, 2009

Bear Market

In a bear market, day traders and market makers do not want to hold stocks or equities in their portfolio overnight. So they sell there positions late in the day and buy positions early in the morning. This also works on a weekly schedule (Monday and Tuesday have strength). So i think we open lower on Friday (Tommorrow) then bounce with a little strength then sell off again into the close. This is what i foresee happening. I will close all short positions by 3:00 or earlier on Friday. I will go long a "very" small position of SPY calls depending on if the $TRIN closes below 1. This trade would be done at the close.

This is completely opposite in a bull market. We have been in a bull market until about three weeks ago. This theory has been working pretty nicely. This is the only reason i didn't close my huge short position on Wednesday. I was about to puke i was down so big. So i doubled down and look at finishing the week better than the Dubai week. This is rare form for me.

Some of the stocks that look very weak are AAPL, GOOG, GS, WFC, and IYR. Also my UUP calls have yet to perform ,but i think tomorrow will be a different story.

Technically i trade off the hourly chart, 30 minute chart, and Daily chart. We had the 10 ema cross down through the 20sma on SPY. This is go short for me and go long inversely depending on the direction. We did this today on all of the above stocks.

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