Top insider selling

here we go for today!!!

JBHT
HUN
COST
JOYG

Pretty solid companies here. That being said i would short the nasdaq here.

US Trade Protection

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34624743

This type of stuff isn'tgood for our trade balances.

Rydex Traders

Record Breaking Box Office sales

Could record breaking movie sales predict a top? I am using the next full moon a pivot point and a possible top. This would happen on the 29th whic tommorrow or really close. I also have Jan 6th as a date in the cycle. Now if we break 10,800 i will closely asses whether or not we will have a correction. I have been about 25% short and have been nibbeling on the short side lately.

Freddie Mac

There is an article in the Washington Post quoting Freddie Macs latest survey. Mortgage rates actually ticked up to 5.05% from 5%. They also predict 6% before the second quarter. This is great for the dollar and bonds. Bad for the market. We will see!!

Hugo Chavez

He may be the most idiotic president ever.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091223-713123.html

sentimentrader.com

Here is a really interesting graph from sentimentrader.com. He also talks about the market topping out with this health care package.

Reading a lot of stuff

I read a lot of different blogs and books. One of the more interesting blogs i read recently is one that is classfied as a conspiracy blog. His or her theory is that goverment is propping up the stock market until the health care bill is passed. The bill passed this morning and today is not going to be a huge sell off. Maybe after the first of the year. I have my eye on Jan 6th 2010 as the top.

AAPL

Purchasing some april $180 aapl puts small amount and i am gonna hold them for a while.

$tick

We had an opening tick of 900 which is an extreme

Put/Call Ratio

One indicator of extreme importance is the put/call ratio. Yesterday i was driving most of the day or would have noted it. We hit and extreme that hadn't been seen since december 2007. There were 6 to 1 calls over puts yesterday.

GDP

The GDP numbers were under the consesus, this would normally bode bad for the market. One thing that sticks out to me is the bad number and goverment spending. The reason this bodes so close to me is that i am in the service industry. My family owns an airconditioning company and they are going full tilt installing new air conditioners so homeowners can obtain tax credits. With all the goverment spending how can we have bad GDP numbers?

We are also still importing way more than exporting. This is a trade deficit and isn't good for us in a couple of ways. I recently read that the united states subisidizes sugar growers so we can pay $.22 a pound at the store. Sugar sells for $.06 a pound everywhere else in the world. Now this article was written in 2006 ,but it goes into detail how much this costs the goverment. This one bill runs about $150 billion a year. The article breaks out how many sugar growers there are in the united states. He concludes by saying we would be better off to pay these farmers $100k a year for the rest of thier lifes and payoff thier homes and give them each a Ferrari.

Vegas

I was asked last night if liked Vegas. I love Vegas because the odd are statistically better than the stock market. In Vegas you know the odds, in the stock market you don't.

Take a day like today. It is complete euphoria. Everyone thinks they will miss out on the rally. If you can learn to control your ego and always have a contrary point of view you can consistently make money.

This is a very interesting article that is getting no press.

www.shanghaidaily.com/article/print.asp?id=423054

Trading Next Week

We should have some volume on Monday then it really should dry up. I took some profits on very small portions ,but i am still long march spy $110 puts and February $111 puts. Also some VNO $65 dollar feb puts.


Traveling back to Nicaragua for the holidays and will be watching the markets while i am there. Hopefully we will have warm water and fun waves.

Short term i believe my shorts are going to cause some pain. There just isn't way to know. I will be watching the markets closely and cut my losses quick if i am wrong.

Go Jags

Come on jags let beat Indy.

There are a lot of reasons to be short here. That is making me think about clearing my short positions. I am sticking with my guns. Currently i am 75% short. This is done through puts mostly on the spy. The all expire in February or march.

Reason for being short:
1. We are under 10 ema on the daily chart
2. 10 ema crossed 20sma on the hourly chart
3. Tick down on macd histogram on daily
4. Large volumes of calls on the $vix being purchased
5. BAC. WFC, C dilution
6. European Banks
7. Greece
8. Dubai
9. Bernanke on the cover of time
10. Rydex Traders Bullish
11. Lots of call buying

Go jags

TBT

TBT has been a red position for me lately. I don't think it is gonna make it before tomorrow. The value has gone down about 80% and the loss was about 2% of my portfolio. Going to wait and see if i get lucky tomorrow.

$vix

Really heavy $VIX call buying for the month of February. Triple the open interest.

Also look at $40 calls for $VIX 1000 times the open interest

Europe

How does Europe work when one country cannot pay their bills. In the US the government would come in a help a state. Does the EU go in and help a country like Greece?

The capital is flowing out of the Euro's and into Dollars. This will make the dollar stronger and gold go down.

MACD

I have been patiently waiting for a tick down on the macd histogram on the daily chart. Yesterday we never received it, today we did. This was referred to me by Alexander Elder. www.elder.com I am now buying $110 spy February puts for a 1-2 month trade.

Cycles

I really think the full moon new moon could serve at least as a pivot point.

GOOG

Selling GOOG puts here for a nice daytrade.

GOOG

Picking up some $600 puts for this friday at $3.20 each. Very risky play here.

GOOG

Google is making a new high with a negative MACD. I know it seems that i am harping on the same thing but Nasdaq looks really weak here. Weaker than the S&P and the DOW.

USO

I have some uso $37 dollar calls that expire on friday. I am selling them here for a small loss even though USO is way up the premium and the fact they were out of the money is hurting me.

The Markets

This type of rally is so weak it makes me want to open short positions bad. We have weak bull power with MACD lines and MACD histogram. If this thing can't get some follow through with volume i will open bigger short positions.

The reasoning for my appl position is its relative weakness when compared to the overall market.

VXX

VXX is still in a contago issue. I have been stopped out numerous times on this position. I am getting back in with a small position of 100 shares at $35.72

USO

Selling half of USO for a nice gain. Bringing stop to break even at $35.80

Just opened a position in AAPL puts The jan $195 for $6.40 each.

Dollar

I wonder what would happen if the dollar starts to correct back down. This market could really take off.

New Moon

Tommorrow is a new moon. What is the cycle so far. Short on a new moon and buy on the full moon.

At first i didn't believe in this stuff but the earth and economy work in cycles. Lets see if this works this time.

10,800

I think it is critical for the DOW to close above 10,800 for the bulls. If we close above 10800 this would be a clear signal to buy as much gold, oil, and silver as you can. This would mean that a wave of inflation is coming faster than anyone would expect. The dollar is getting severely deflated and prices are going to rise on all commodity products.

If we close below this number it is sort of a neutral area. You could try and short the market with a tight stop or wait until a close above the number to go long.

Support: 10,000 8,800 8800 and 6200

Resistance: 11,800 10,800

Credit Default

This is main reason a stock market goes down. When a company, nation, or state, say that they cannot pay their debt. We have had numerous things happen in the most recent months and the capital inflow from governments have continued to save the day. There is little i see short term that could possibly worry the markets.

USO

Picking up some USO because:

1. 10ema crossed 20sma
2. Dollar is short term overbought
3. Oil is short term oversold

USO

Man it is really close to take for a trade here. Look at $36 for an entry

USO

Watch USO this week. On the hourly chart it is almost a buy. When the 10ema crosses the 20sma it is a buy. I also feel that it is so shorted it may pop hard to the upside.

Also i think FAZ is a sell here. Would look at puts.

Here is a neat website that i have just began to read. When i read things like this whether it is prechter or dent i like to put my own spin on it.

www.martinarmstrong.org

The Dollar

Going to buy GLD and USO calls and AAPL

The GLD $111. strike
The USO $37 strike
The AAPL $200 strike

I have two reasons for making these trades.

1. The dollar is overbought
2. Next week is option expiration and is typically a strong week

These are very small wagers and could turn into nothing. Also aapl has a nice cup and handle on the 60 minute 10 day chart.

GOOG

Taking some profit on GOOG puts and closing AAPL puts. Still dealing with the TBT masacre i entered.

TBT

I am holding all my Puts here. Inluding TBT.

The dollar hasn't budged and that tells me that something may be changing. We may make a new high on the indices but the fact that the dollar is strong tends me too believe the rally may be ending.

If dollar sells off hard i may change my stance.

Oil and AAPL

The only play i can see here is Oil. If the dollar falters then all commodities oil, silver, and gold should rally along with the market. The reason for looking at oil is that it is way oversold meaning more upside potential. Also Karen Finerman on fast money recommended it. Just kidding.

Anytime something moves down so fast most of time a correction bounce is in order.

Gonna lose some money on these puts at the open maybe they will give me a window to get out at a respectable price.

GOOG and AAPL were in the Wall Street Journal. They are becoming competitors in various areas. This is not good for the price for either one of these stocks. GOOG had a monopoly on search and AAPL wants a piece of the pie. Also AAPL had a nice semi monopoly on their smart phone and the DRIOD is doing really well. In addition AAPL is having serious problems with sales of the Iphone in China. The phone costs around $1176 dollars and the Wi-Fi cannot be used.

The trade for AAPL: If we get a break to $205 i will purchase the $200 march puts.

Futures

The futures and premarket is way up. Lets see what the bulls can do today. Maybe we can get a free ride for a couple of points.

Shorts

Well of the shorts i can close in after hours i am going to now. I have some FAZ that i can sell and i also closed half of my goog puts and aapl puts.

I made a mistake today and knew we were going to bounce. Tomorrow we will open up and probably rally hard.

I think that GOLD and OIL are buys here for a trade. I am purchasing UCO.

Tomorrow may push on some FAZ puts.

Today was miserable day to be bearish.

Today

Well today has not gone as planned. TBT puts are killing me here. Really cannot figure out a clear direction. I am down a little today and will probably hold everything overnight and think about the action today unless something happens.

Today we had a terrible treasury offering

Currently the TRIN is lowering below meaning a possible short covering rally at the end of day.

Low volume

So the only us bears have today is the worse than expected job numbers and the possibility of citi issuing billions of shares.

Currently the only green position i have is appl puts. RED accross the board otherwise.

$TRIN

Trin is on fire we are going lower all things being equal here. Just read 1.81

Mornings in a Bear Market

We gapped up nicely. We made some good profits on the spy calls. Now if my theory is correct we should get weakness throughout the day. This is because no one wants to hold their positions over night. So we have a rising TRIN which means the flow is into declining shares. Also a weak $tick. We have an exhaustion gap in the making also. I am purchasing TBT puts, SPY $109 puts, AAPL and GOOG puts here and Long FAZ and BGZ. I am fully leveraged for the down move.

This is what i call aggressively short.

WFC

Purchasing puts on WFC

TBT

Buying large number of $46 puts here.

We are Bouncing

Gonna clear all these calls on the open and look for a time to reshort. Typically next week is a positive week and i will keep that in mind.

Gold and The Dollar

Could Gold keep going up?

Calls

Picking up some calls here. No one wants to be short before the jobs numbers.

Stopped out for loss

Was stop out of my december 109 puts for a loss. Don't feel good being short here. Think we may have some good jobs numbers tommorrow with all the part time hiring for christmas.

lower lows

We are gonna goe lower today. Buying $109 spy dec puts on any bounce.

Down move

It was a fake out now we have rising trend in the TRIN. Now this isn't exact science but we just broke .70. I have closed my longs and if we break 1.0 on the trin will purchase puts. Hopefully we can get a push to $108.95.

Fake out

This move down feels like a fake out. We have an extremely low TRIN reading which means most of the flow or volume is going into advancing stocks. There are a couple big caps keeping the whole market down this morning.

Getting Long

Looking to get long this market around DOW 10200 or SPY $108.95. This would be for a small gain before reloading on shorts around 10,400 DOW or slightly higher. Would look at put/call ratios and small trader investor sentiment before reentering shorts.

What if this Greece thing blows over similar to Dubai and we get a rally, then right after the first of the year we have another event that strikes a sell off. We would have no January effect to look forward to. Higher taxes in 2010. Dollar possibly rallying with higher interest rates on the horizon. Could be a great shorting opportunity.

I am looking really close at VLO. The crack spreads for refiners are getting a lot better and these guys have been down for sooooo long. Currently i am looking to get into VLO on any weakness.

Morning Afternoon

I think we see strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon. We have some economic data coming up later this week and closing positions at end of day. Gonna clear spy calls a little later this morning then load up on spy puts for the afternoon. We are gonna open up so should see a small profit on 20 contracts. Not going to big on the swing overnight trades because the possibility of getting completely wiped out.

Watch the dollar here. If we get any pull back on UUP to $22.15-$22.3 area i would buy it. You could even go into march $22.00 calls.

Also i think the action in C was a precursor of what we will see very soon. GS is a target also the REITS.

We could get some strength next week with it being option expiration week.

SPY

Long Spy $111 calls small amount

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart for Spy- Overbought Stochastic
Flattening 10 EMA
We closed right on the 10 EMA
Bearish Divergence on MACD histogram
MACD crossed under signal Line
Low Volume Yesterday and High Volume Day Before
120 Minute 40 day chart-
Closed under the 10ema and 30 ema
We have a 10ema 20 sma cross (Short Signal)
MACD Crossed Signal Line
Way Over Sold

We are way down on the futures this morning. I am going to clear all my shorts on the open. We are gonna get a bounce maybe a rally going into next week and that should possibly set up a good shorting opportunity. I have been Dollar cost averaging into VXX in my retirement account. I believe this baby could double.

Look at the $Tick on the open. If we open way down and have a positive $Tick you could go long for a couple points trying to fill the gap.

$TRIN

The TRIN is slowly making new lows. So we have more money flowing into advancing shares. This could be bad for the bears. Have been stopped out of almost everything.

Daytraders

I would assume most of the day traders will start clearing their longs right after lunch time and before 3:00 would be a good time to clear shorts.

Bear Market

If my theory is correct about us having strength in the morning and weakness in the afternoon we should sell off today after lunch. You would want close most of the shorts at close and look to reopen short positions tomorrow in the morning on any strength.

I am actually closing some of my spy puts and bringing the rest of my DEC $111 puts to a profitable stop. There are some things i need to work on. All in all was a great day trading. AAPL is so oversold here i expect a short term bounce and this could be a great time to re short. The $TRIN is still above 1.00 so the flow is going into declining shares. The $tick is still net positive so it really hasn't said much or given any clues about the rest of day.

Stops

Bringing stops to break even.

flow

Most of the volume is going into declining shares. This means we have few stocks holding up the broader market. If these stocks begin to decline we could get a down day. If the rest of the field starts turning up it could be bad for shorts today.

The market

The market is up but the $trin is showing that more money is flowing into dclining stocks

Short

short here at $111.50 spy. DEC $111 puts

$trin

The open we had all the money flowing into advancing stocks at a .3 reading. Also our high $tick is 248.

Small lot traders

Small option traders of 10 contracts or less are extremely bullish on the market. Creating a .4 put call ratio. This is a contrary indicator and leads me to be more bearish.

Large traders are extremely short here. With the nasdaq being the most shorted. Which goes hand in hand with technology leading the way down.

Short

Gonna add to shorts on any stregnth today. We could probably push to $112.00 today on the spy. Gonna buy the March $109 puts.

Also will look at the AAPL march $185 puts


Right now i am all cash except the TLT calls.

Will look for a low $tick at a new high today.

Weekend Reading

Sitting back reading my favorite blogs and subscriptions:

Here is my interpretation: We open with lower futures on Monday, they get pushed up to a mid morning high and that will be a great shorting opportunity. This will be met by a $trin reading of less than .8 or extreme of .4 like we saw on Friday. We could also see the mid morning high met with a weak $tick reading of 400 or less. This shorting opportunity we would want to close at end of day. Some stocks that look really weak are AAPL and GS. You could play these guys with puts for more leverage.

Longer term: We are finishing wave 2 and wave 3 will bring us to lower lows. You may miss out on a couple of points if you are long but we are way closer to the top than the bottom. For example: All indexes were considerably lower in 2003. We had much greater economic times and real estate was creating a massive bubble. Now we have horrid economic times and a stock market that is on fire. Warning: i am not a financial advisor, i am trader. So my plays are highly leveraged and highly risky. Mark to market is my game. If you were to ask me where to invest i would say, "Smith and Wesson." Unfortunately it wouldn't be the stock it would be the latter!

Seriously though, preserve cash and buy some long dated out of the money puts. Don't go crazy and try to get rich. For example, some Spy $109 March puts would be an excellent purchase on any bounce.

I find it extremely disturbing how bearish everyone is on t-bonds. That is why i picked up some TLT calls. This was a very small amount because i am probably wrong with this trade or too early.

I will leave you with this from a blog i read. "How disturbing would it be instead of a Christmas rally a Christmas crash."

$TRIN

The $TRIN keeps rising and new $TICK low would confirm we will get lower lows today.

Gonna clear all my shorts at the close and keep my TLT calls. This is the only play i see worth holding on to today.

I am an FSU fan so i hope the Florida gators get there buts kicked this weekend against BAMA.

Also the "Blindside" is a phenomenal movie. Would highly recommend getting out and seeing it this weekend.

UUP

Selling half of my UUP calls here. Clearing half GOOG puts and half AAPL puts

TLT

Picking up some TLT december 95 calls here. Very small amount

$TRIN

Trin just hit .43 short spy at $112.10

Short goog through puts

divergences

tons of divergences at the open

The TRIN hit 25 with market up. Not right super short here.

Scenario

We are gapping up huge on the numbers. BAC is selling off hard.

I am gonna play this like so. Since i am net short i am gonna open down. Looking at the $TICK and the $TRIN.

$TRIN- if we have a reading of below .80 this means that we have an extreme amount of money heading into rising shares. This will lead me to think the opposite

$TICK- if we have a reading that is less than 400 or negative this would lead me to believe that a small number of shares are holding the market up.

Also i doubt that traders want to hold positions over the weekend. $112.50 is my first target for short spy $595 is my first target for goog puts. $200 is my first target for aapl puts. $22.00 is my first target for uup calls.

GOOG

Buying GOOG puts here really soon. Looking at the $590 december will buy when we have a low $tick.

Bonds and Dollar

There was a rumor that japan might sell some of there t-bills yesterday. That is why the bonds didn't confirm the move low. Also we have news out of china that the dollar is the main reason for the economic problems. At first one would think this would be a sell signal. Aong the lines with BAC yesterday. BAC is repaying tarp funds "buy BAC". Wrong!

China wants a stronger dollar. They make more money if the dollar is strong. This is a buy signal for the dollar.

Bear Market

In a bear market, day traders and market makers do not want to hold stocks or equities in their portfolio overnight. So they sell there positions late in the day and buy positions early in the morning. This also works on a weekly schedule (Monday and Tuesday have strength). So i think we open lower on Friday (Tommorrow) then bounce with a little strength then sell off again into the close. This is what i foresee happening. I will close all short positions by 3:00 or earlier on Friday. I will go long a "very" small position of SPY calls depending on if the $TRIN closes below 1. This trade would be done at the close.

This is completely opposite in a bull market. We have been in a bull market until about three weeks ago. This theory has been working pretty nicely. This is the only reason i didn't close my huge short position on Wednesday. I was about to puke i was down so big. So i doubled down and look at finishing the week better than the Dubai week. This is rare form for me.

Some of the stocks that look very weak are AAPL, GOOG, GS, WFC, and IYR. Also my UUP calls have yet to perform ,but i think tomorrow will be a different story.

Technically i trade off the hourly chart, 30 minute chart, and Daily chart. We had the 10 ema cross down through the 20sma on SPY. This is go short for me and go long inversely depending on the direction. We did this today on all of the above stocks.

Success

I really think we open lower tommorrow and a bounce should be shorted. Well i think the signal to short the market came in when, we gapped up and did not have a confirming tick. All the money was flowing into lower stocks. This was confirmed by the $trin.

Have a good night!

Longer term we have yet to close below the 10ema on the daily. Once we do that it could be a green light to short some more.

$TRIN

The TRIN is reading that most money flow is going into declining stocks today. This is bearish in that we opened up. Also the Tick high and Low is in a tight range consdering, that we made new highs. This tells me very few stocks are bringing the market up. If we get a new tick low it could mean lower lows for today.

Still Short

Was not able to trade yesterday and i am giving back a lot of the gains in the past few days. Gonna watch the tick on the open and see if they can push the spy above $112.00. This is should be a good level to short.

One Bad Apple

Can AAPL ruin the whole stock market. I find it doubtful but i bet you there is 9/10 chance we open lower tommorrow because of this sell off.

Why was AAPL selling so hard into the close?

Volume

We are on track to have less volume today than we did the day after thanksgiving.

Today i am pretty down and have opened extremely large positions. This could definitely make or break my year. I normally do not like to gamble like this but the market has so many divergences i can't help my self.

Daily: extremely overbought, low volume, MACD histogram and Lines are showing bearish divergence.

Hourly: We are going up on low volume and haven't broke through resistance

Russell and Transports have not had follow through

Banks are severely lagging also.

This is an extremely risky play.

Shorts

I added to my very red short position here and also bought UUP calls $22 December at $.20.

We are up against tough resistance here and believe even though we have a rally going into a full moon or at least a bottom it won't work here. The news on AIG was read yesterday ,but i doubt it has hit CNBC yet. This will be the straw that breaks the camels back.

AIG

I read a pretty disturbing article about AIG. They could be on the hook for billions of debt.

Also i am gonna be pretty red this morning. May have to close and take a nice chunk out of gains. It is gonna hurt, we will see.