Really Good Article

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15932.htm

Cattle

I am leaving for Nicaragua again on Monday. I will be there for the next 6 months. During this time i am focusing on my farm. My wife and I are going to buy cattle. Mostly Brahma bull and cows. Some interesting facts were in the New York times.


Live cattle reached an all time high of 4,045.16 cents per a pound.

Live cattle reached an all time low of 81.95 cents per a pound.

Friday the closing price for live cattle was 91.57 cents per a pound.

If you don't own farm land you should. In fact, I think purchasing farm land and raising cattle could be very profitable.

Gap up Mondays

There is definite theme of gap up Mondays. It very reliable and i believe a crowded trade. If we gap down this Monday it could be just enough fire power to push us lower.

Bank of America

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-gaming-government-loan-guarantees

There is an unvelievable artice from http://www.zerohedge.com/ . The article explains the banks current bad loans over the past year. Look at the chart then read the article.

The Vix

This no risk attitude is going to punish some investors. The vix is once again below 20.

Buying more VXX

Buying some more VXX

I have a couple of bullets left on the short side. I have been short since Wednesday and seen my profit erode right before my eyes. Lets see if the bulls can push past the highs for the week. I have decided that if BIDU doesn't open and close lower by Monday i will cut my losses on the trade. OUCH!

It sure does feel lonely here being short.

Take note:

How well the Bonds are doing, it looks as if the dollar found support and how the semi conductor index looks weak. Also GDX and GLD look as if they are barely hanging on. Gonna go and get a nice coffee. Maybe a double triple skinny fat soy latte.

By the Rumor Sell the News

Nothing is 100% but waiting for the number to come out for GDP then going short should be a good game plan. I hope the number is good. I believe we need good news for this market to go down.

There is a lot of talk about why we went up yesterday. All i can say is the market is always right.

Amazed once again

The bulls have been winning and the technicals are sickly. Nobody wanted to be short before GDP tomorrow. So short covering started at the open. Then the late party shorts showed up and they are what squeezed us higher.

As for a gap tomorrow who knows. It sure does feel like the rest of the world is looking at our economic data more than we are. Last night on CNBC the Asian economist were really talking about the bad housing numbers.

Some of my fills today were at the top ticks.

Maybe those asian economist will be talking about our great "Jobs Numbers." O yeah the jobs numbers were bad because of the weather.

Bonds traded nicely all day today and once again the vix is showing extreme complancy in this market. Good luck to all the longs out there.

Gettem all sucked in

I can just see the dollar signs. The strong hands are pushing this thing around nothing has changed. Using this opportunity to buy VXX.

Purchasing more VXX

Tons of divergences here

Watch GDX and USO

Successfull auction

Looks like our debt is being bought.

30 year mortgage rates

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35582486

It is all about interest rates.

GLD and GDX

Do not buy them here. It is a giant trap, they are trying to suck in the weak hands thinking that they can hide in Gold. It would be a lot better to wait and see if we can get GLD around $104. Same with oil and other precious metals. This down pressure is not done if anything try and pick a nice place to get short the market today.

You have been warned!

Selling USO puts

Selling USO puts for a nice little gain

Market Update 2-24-10

All in all the market is in another topping pattern. These aren't easy to time ,but some things to keep in mind. If we go down Thursday and Friday of this week then we have Mutual Fund Monday. We have a full moon on Sunday which means we should go long on Monday.

Monthly Charts- Fairly typical formation of a top

Weekly Charts- The power of Bulls is extremely weak, and HORRENDOUS bearish divergence is forming

Daily Chart- We have a tick down on the MACD and Force index on Wednesday. If today Thursday their is an up day i will open a large short position.

Currently i am still long:
UUP
TLT
VXX
BGZ
BIDU Puts
ISRG Puts
USO Puts

Short:
Spy
RIMM

Funny

Isn't funny how we have had 6 up days and one serious down day and everyone is a bull.

Shorting the Spy

We have a huge intraday divergence here. Going to short spy at $110.6, $111.2 stop,,looking for $110.00

Also purchasing VXX at $26.77

Bonds look good

Gold is weak

GDX weak

Semi's look strong

Short AAPL

Gonna short AAPL here at $200.4, $201 stop and $198 target

Everything is A-OK

Well the sentiment is now bullish again. Yesterday we were falling off a cliff and now we are heading straight to 11,000. This is getting really comical. The strong hands are sucking investors in only to push out or through their stops in the coming weeks. Unless you are quick on the draw and actively manage your account i couldn't possibly buy equities here. Most of them have doubled and the insiders are selling them more and more each week.

My unofficial Blog indicator is Bullish.

Gold and GDX are down with the Dollar. Not normal.

China and Markets

The market yesterday was very strong.

The rest of the Asian markets were fairly weak. Currently Europe is trading firm but by no means strong. Gold is Down and so is Oil, the dollar index is trading at $80.73. The Euro is up fractionally also.

Some of the things i think are important are the headlines. China is telling it banks to limit loans to governments. This is a deflationary action. Also the treasury stated last night they will be removing liquidity from the system.

If we do get some kind of bounce i will look to exit my SD energy play.

The trend has changed and i am shorting rallies instead of buying dips.

BIDU

clearing it here for a $1.00

TLT

Looks like it wants $91.00 today really bad.

Day Trade

Shorting BIDU here at $502.

TLT

Man bonds are on fire today.

The dollar

It is really strong here.

I am purchasing the $90 september TLT calls

Market

Still there is complacency. There sure is a lot of buzz about bloom energy. This could have a negative effect on oil in my opinion. I have decided to purchase USO $40 puts the march. Then if something crazy happens i can at least know what my downside is.

The GLD is holding pretty strong and the GDX is weak.

SMH is looking pretty weak

Banks are pretty strong.

This dip could have been a buying opportunity. We will see.

USO

Closing USO short for a small gain

Why was Europe weak

When on turned on CNBC this morning the European indices were all in the green. Then the German Confidence number came out and the selling began. This was a hint into what may happen in the United States. I am now looking for the next catalyst which may take us lower.

SD

Buying Sandridge energy. They report numbers on the 25th and believe we could get a run up into the report.

SD at $8.28

GLD

Clearing GLD short for a scalp

CCI

That is the lowest CCI reading i have seen in months.

Consumer Confidence

Nobody wants to be short before the number. Expect heavy selling after the number comes out.

Still Short

I am still short going into today. Watching GLD and USO. They are both showing some weakness and i believe they will play out. Longer term i am bullish on both of these funds.

Currently Long
VXX
BGZ
EDZ
TLT
UUP
BIDU Put (Freaking Killing me)
ISRG Puts

Currently Short
GLD
USO

I am skewed very heavy on the short side going into today. Even if we finish up i will be very skeptical about closing my positions. Currently the market is being controlled by the strong and staying the course is going to be tough. If one was to look at the portfolio as a whole my market timing has been pretty bad. GLD and USO yesterday may have been a nice entry we will see.

While i am writing this Home Depot reported earnings. This news has done little to effect the Futures.

China

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-chinese-malls-tell-us-about-the-economic-reality-3662.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27s+Narrative%29

Very interesting article above.

Yesterday was a bearish day in my opinion. The internals were very weak. The amount of "No risk here thinking" is actually comical.

Closing SPY short

Closing spy short for $.30 cents.

BIDU

Closing this out for a gain of $1.25. Currently i am on margin and i own puts on this also. No reason to double dip.

Would expect GLD to sell off a little harder on this move down.

ISRG

Buying a small portion of the $320 march puts. The insiders have been selling this and with health care costs a debate this guy could take a hair cut.

They are priced at $1.95 each

SPG

Would highly recommend shorting spg here. I would but i am stretched pretty thin on the short side over 100%

VXX

Is now trading outside its 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band. Investors are very complacent here.

Weakness

There is some wekaness in the dollar and the Gold Bulls and Oil bugs can't keep the upward movement going. I am going to short USO 25% and GLD 25% here and see if we can get a couple of points.

Short GLD at $109.3

Short USO at $39.06

RIMM

Has a very nice bearish divergence on the daily and weekly. It got a little oversold intraday and will hope we get a gap for tomorrow. This will be a nice short tomorrow.

SPY

Shorting the spy at $111.32, $111.6 stop looking for $109

BIDU

Gonna short BIDU at $506.89 stop at $509, Target is $400 lets see if she gets there

VXX

Buying some VXX at $26.89

USO

Feel like the odds of being long oil are very good long term but short term they could correct. Iran is the variable and crude could open up $10-$20 dollars on any negative comments.

This being a variable i would rather look to buy crude on any pull back than short or take long a position at this level.

Good Chance of a Squeeze

There is a good chance we squeeze higher today.

BIDU

Damnit!

Unofficial Indicator

Well Jim Rogers is bearish, this has been a great indicator for timing the bottom of the dollar. He is now bearish on global equities including China.

We are extremely overbought here. The Rydex traders are making bearish bets and the dumb money is 54% confident in the rally. Insider selling reached an extremely high reading last week. Also we have bearish news from Australia and China, with Australia looking to raise interest rates and China raising reserve requirements.

All in all I am bearish and about 50% short through VXX. Will look to time BGZ and EDZ this week.

China

China's central bank raised banks' required reserves and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its discount rate after the market closed for last week's Lunar New Year holiday.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened nearly flat at 3,016.703 points compared with 3,018.133 at the close on Feb. 12, the last trading day ahead of the break. It then slipped as much as 0.46 percent before rising 0.28 percent to the morning's peak of 3,026.659.

The market's relatively flat opening reassured overseas markets that had been spooked by China's reserve ratio hike, with Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index rising 2.4 percent in early trade while its China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks was up 2.50 percent.

The Shanghai-listed A shares of top lender Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped 0.20 percent, while Bank of Communications (BoCom) was down 0.85 percent.

My opinion

Really think that the current market is being controlled by strong hands. They are sucking in the weak and simply taking their money. Looking at the market, then thinking about where we are and then thinking where are we going. Is shooting straight to DOW 11,000 an option. This I would place a 10% bet on. The strong hands want to buy this market just not at this level. We need to go lower before we can go higher. This can be seen with the Dumb money indicator and insider buying.

How low is not the question. When fear is rampant and the $VIX is close to 40 then it will time to buy. Until then I will attempt to short and get stopped out over and over again.

If it is worth anything please RETRACE BIDU. You are really starting to piss me off.

Reminder

If you haven't seen this already take a look.

http://video.pbs.org/video/1218530801/

Second thoughts

Having second thought is normal ,but extremely frustrating. As of right now i am having extreme doubt on my BIDU position. i have allocated about $10,000 to this position and it has been cut in half. Driving home last night i almost threw up in disgust with my self over the position. I have broken every single one of my trading rules, moving stops, buying more etc... So now i am left with the question of what to do.

Going to make a list of why to own BIDU and why to Sell short BIDU right now.

Go long or Own BIDU
1. Little or no competition with Google pulling out of china
2. Very good end of year and quarterly report
3. Making a new trading range
4. No insider selling
5. Low shares outstanding
6. Stock split rumor.
7. Above its weekly and daily moving averages
8. Very strong MACD lines on the daily lines

Shorting BIDU
1. Google could work out problems in China
2. Yahoo and Microsoft are applying for Asia search approval
3. It trades at an extreme multiple
4. Has decreasing volume on this new high
5. Decreasing weekly MACD and Daily MACD histogram readings
6. Closed outside its weekly Bolinger Band
7. SOHU is slowly gaining market share
8. A new high was made on the weekly with a lower RSI reading
9. It is extremely overbought.
10. MACD histogram has been slowly decreasing while the stock is making new highs
11. Like any other industry Internet search is going to lose pricing power with competition.

BIDU

Who in thier right mind would want to own this stock as an investment? It must be for the growth.

The competition in pay for search is going to be pretty intense in the next couple of years. I just can't believe that this stock is trading at this multiple. It is amazing.

Selling BRK/B

Selling all of my BRK/B puts and purchasing more BIDU puts.

VXX

Purchasing some more VXX at $27.02

Throw in the towel.

Currently my trading has been well below par. The bidu puts and brk/b puts have lost half their value. Currently i am watching the $VIX and the fact that Bonds have stopped going down.


What is worrying me from the short side is the Dollar. It is tracing out a perfect bearish divergence which could lead to higher equity prices. I am probably going to stay short through the weekend ,but i am feeling very uneasy with this position.

I feel like throwing in towel.

Tell of the Tape

Lets really see how much they want to stay long going into the weekend.

stopped out of spy

Stopped out of my spy trade.

The $vix is about to trade below 2 standard deviations.

Pandora

I love pandora. Found a group called Shwayze. They have a really cool style.

BRK/B

Purchasing another small amount of BRK/B march 77 puts for $1.49

VXX

getting long some VXX at $27.30

Getting Short

Shorting the spy at $111.25 with a $111.5 stop

Take Some Profits

Money managers around the world are probably going to take some profits today. The risk reward is great, more risk than reward. There is uncertainty now, anyone looking to get long is crazy. I am buying BGZ premarket and will keep buying today as we go up.

CPI numbers

With the CPI numbers coming in so low why did fed raise interest rates?

VXX

Gonna pick up some shares of vxx in after hours at $28.20.

After Hours Action

I am tired and happy i am 25% short and not 125% short as of earlier in the week.

The market is selling off pretty hard in after hours due to the fed raising the discount rate. This is a game changer and any gap up should be shorted tomorrow.

Death and Taxes

All Kidding aside did a man in Texas really kill himself over taxes?

Bidu Puts

Purchasing some more BIDU puts here. The march $480 at $14.40 each.

Karen Finerman

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35460755


Karen Finerman has had the TLT short for a long time. I listen to what she says and believe she is quite brilliant.

It could be that this article is telling us that the short play for TLT is crowded and she is clearing it here.

BGZ, EDZ, SRS, and Spy

I am clearing some of my short position here and will look to re enter. I am about 25% short right now not including TLT, UUP, and VXX.

Still have the BIDU puts also which are killing me. It looks as if the Dollar is gonna pull back here and the markets may get a free ride with them.

This is a good thing because if we have sub par treasury auction i will be able to sell some more puts and possibly purchase more TLT.

BRK/B

Purchasing a very small amount of the March $76 puts, at $2.00. Just testing the water with this, Berkshire is getting really weak MACD histogram and lines on the daily chart. Also the weekly is showing a small divergence.

The hourly chart just had the 10 ema cross under the 20 sma.

Selling AFL

The insiders have the green light to sell AFL today. Large quantities by insiders are being sold today.

Duke Bravo

Selling march $86 puts naked for TLT at $.35. If TLT gets down to $86 i will be happy to take ownership.

MSFT and YHOO

Both of these companies were approved by regulators to work together. This is not good for Google.

BIDU

Very nice bearish divergence forming. We are making intra day highs on less MACD power. Today could be the day for perfect timing on BIDU puts.

Technical Opinion

Weekly chart- we look like we could be tracing out another bearish divergence. This would occur on the next up week with a tick down in the MACD histogram.

Daily- we have no bullish divergence on the chart. This isn't a signal of a strong bottom from level of force index. The MACD histogram has already retraced where downturns occur. If we go higher today with less MACD power this next leg down could get ugly.

Hourly- This rally is getting long in the Tooth, The 10 ema is about to cross the 20 sma.


Last night gold sold off hard. I read about this news in the economist 2 weeks ago. Gold must have rallied on the Afghanistan offensive and now traders are remembering that the IMF is selling Gold. After this little pullback I believe all the news will be baked in. Will nibble a little gold long soon.

On this next pull back will look to buy some oil also.

Isn't what Europe wants Greece to do deflationary?

Rally Into the Close

So it looks as if we are going to Rally into the close. Will be watching Gold and GDX to see if they rally along with the market. This could be a major head fake. If i am wrong i will get stoppped out and start over.

Into the Close

If my technical indicators are correct we sell hard into the close today.

Portfolio Adjustment

I am clearing some of my shorts to add more TLT at this number.

TLT

If any more room would pick up TLT here. It is at a great price.

The Dollar

I think people have yet to realize how powerful TLT is here. For instance where i live one dollar is equal to c$21 Cordoba. This purchasing power is pretty powerful. Me and my wife live off about $1000 dollars per a month. With the dollar increasing in value and the $4.00 dollar dividend yield it makes this Fund very attractive.

When TLT looks over valued i will sell it and buy Oil, Gold, and Silver. This will be fairly obvious when the time is right

Short

I am 150% short here. Have my stop at spy $111.75

Gap Up

If gap up this morning i will go short 150% of my account. This requires going out on margin. Still have the BIDU puts and feel very strong about this trade. It is taking longer to sort out and i have seen the value of these option get cut in half.

Technically Speaking

We have moved a long way in a short time. Yesterday I was partially frozen and couldn't pull the trigger. One thing i can tell you. We went higher on less "Bull Power" yesterday. Volume weak, MACD weak, and overbought stochastic.

We are entering a deflation period. Bonds should still be bought here, TLT.

Another Gap Up Monday

Even though it is Tuesday we have another gap up first day of the week. Reading through different blogs and publications this is money flow coming in from mutual funds. My plan is to be fully short by the close today.

I was really wrong on shorting Gold. Going to clear the DZZ position for a loss. There has been a lot of good information about GOOG over the extended weekend. It will be interesting to see if that has any effect on BIDU.

Gold is probably going to rally further with the offensive going on in Afghanistan.

Internet Search

I have a hard time thinking that Google and Baidu will keep trading at these high multiples. There are other companies out there that will take business from them. The Internet bubble is bursting and these stock prices could be cut in half.

Rich Dad Poor Dad

finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108837/dead-cat

Robert Kyosaki isn't a trader ,but i always respect what he has to say. After reading several of his books I think his voice needs to be heard. I really wish i had read Richard Russells 50% theory.

China Real Estate

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4

Stronger Yuan

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awBSw.3x_gAo&pos=3

Afghanistan & Google

The United States launched a major offensive against the Taliban.

Google is not pulling out of China?

http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/02/12/brin.google.china/index.html

After reading the article it doesn't convince me that the problems are over

Scary Graph

The green arrows are new moons and the black arrows are full moons. This graph was taken from a comment at www.danericselliottwaves.blogspot . His blog has great in depth technical analysis. We have a new moon on Sunday. The futures are trading on Monday so i went 50% short today. Most of my purchase was BGZ. If wrong, I will simply get stopped and start over.

Complacent

Eventhough we have had a correction it feels as if the market is complacent. The VIX is very low and people are buying calls again. China is slowing thier economy and Gold filled the gap. Gold is a such a short here to me.

People have not been buying bonds either. This could get real interesting

CCI Reading

The last thrust down was the lowest CCI reading over the past three days since BIDU had gapped up. Lower prices have a higher probabaility here.

BIDU

I am going to hold the puts and clear the short with a $1.00 profit at $486. If I wake up on tuesday and some crazy rumor comes out and she gaps to $600 i could be wiped out. Can't risk that.

Super Duper

Getting Short Here. Spy Puts, Long Some BGZ, VXX, and SRS

Bear Flag

This looks like a bear flag to me on the hourly chart. Also the internals are not that great. Going to wait until the close for my purchase.

Looking at the Spy April $107 puts. Will swing these over the weekend.

The TRIN has been heavy all day and the call buying is healthy. The Dollar index has held above $80 and Gold has yet to reach yesterdays high. China will be closed all next week providing them with a safe haven from a possible bear raid. Also the lunar calender is adding to my short bias.

Come on BIDU retrace!!

RIMM

Clearing this for a loss. I have a suspicion that Microsoft is about to buy RIMM.

RIMM

Gonna short some rimm here at $70.34, this is a day trade.

BIDU

Purchasing more of the puts here at $20.5.

Also shorting the stock here at $487.00

The Dollar

It is all about the Dollar baby. Would not touch any commodities here. Still short GLD with DZZ. China raising reserve requirements is huge. This takes money out of circulation very similar to us running out of oil. For example, if we were to run out of oil this would increase the price of oil. Here we have a very complicated issue. The Yuan is pegged to the US dollar. So china raising reserve requirements takes Yuans out of circulation (Running out of Yuans increase the Yuans Value). Inherently this raises the value of the dollar. So by them having a pegged currency it hurts the United States.

Higher dollar hurts US exports because it costs more for foreign countries to buy our goods.

This news is going to hurt US China relations.

BIDU

Is Bidu really trading with an $85 p/e. Stock price is suppose to reflect EPS times P/E. This stock has earnings per a share of $5.67. So it should be trading at $487. They have about $600 million in cash and currently only have the Chinese market as their customer. This P/E cannot stay here. Even on a fundamental basis this price doesn't make sense. See you at $350.

BIDU

By 15% share of BIDU $480 puts at $21.00, will buy more as it goes higher. My stop for the puts is at $15.00.

DZZ

Buying the ETF DZZ this is the inverse for Gold. $14.45 with a $2 stop target of $20

If Bidu bounces into the close or we have a bounce from here will start to slowly build a short position and buying puts.

Entry Technique for BIDU

Very interesting read below.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20100211/D9DPPJ180.html


Not to get too scary ,but i believe we are on the verge of a war. The time frame is probably this weekend make sure to watch the fireworks.

OK BIDU: When ever I lose money on a trade I like to exit and look for reentry. This is the sign of a professional. Now i am not a pro and don't think I am. When looking at the technicals we have the following:

Weekly Chart: Over Bought Stochastic, Sell Signal MACD Histogram, Weak MACD lines

Daily Chart: Power of bulls is considerably less than the last gap up from Google news and less volume. Weak MACD Lines and Histogram. The most important piece of the puzzle is RSI. It has failed to make a new high with the new high. This shows that underlying strength is not there. Also volume isn't backing this move.

We have had 6 gaps From January 1st. The chart looks like Swiss cheese. These gaps equal over 100 points. Whether it be on the short or long side people have gotten burned with this guy time and time again. Jim Rogers states in the book Market Wizards. "I short a stock when it starts moving in gaps." Take a look back at GLD. This ETF starting gappping every morning this December. Would have been a really good short.

My plan is this. Once BIDU makes a new high with a lower MACD histogram on the daily chart i will buy the March $390 puts. My entry technique will be on the 2 minute intraday chart. When BIDU makes a new high with lower RSI and CCI readings; will purchase the put options.

This play has the highest risk reward ratio and it is all that I am gonna focus on for the next three days.

Bidu

Well this mangy stock has managed to take some money from me. All I can do is wake up tomorrow and head into battle again. Really though, how long can it stay here. When it comes down it is going to hurt.

Bernanke's Plan

At first glance raising interest rates and removing dollars from supply will be very good for treasuries. This will make our exports more expensive contracting our economy. This is good ,but not for the stock market. This kind of fiscal discipline is exactly what we need.

TLT

I have repurchased the 25% that I sold last Friday. I now have full capacity of TLT again at 1000 shares.

I find it odd, how well the Dollar has held in with how short everyone is on the EURO.

Would be really careful here

If I was long I would sell it here. Nasty market internals and a high trin reading could lead to an afternoon blood bath.

Short

Trying to short bidu here at $474 with a $480 stop and $455 target. The good news is priced in and i believe the internet search business is going to have competition. Just like telephones, computers, autos, and electricity. Get the point!!

BHP

The most important article I have read yet is BHP earnings. They are siting a slowing of demand in China for raw materials.

The asian markets still show bearish overtones with rallying early in the day with selling in the afternoon. Looking really close at BIDU today and feel this thing is way overppriced. Will intiate a short position if we have a false upside break out.

Hindsight is always 20/20 and buying BIDU puts before earnings was a mistake. One of the things that i did correctly was allocate a small portion of the portfolio so this trade didn't wipe me out. Three years ago i would have bought a huge amount and been out on the street today.

BIDU

Well Bidu killed the number and my puts will be worthless.

TLT

Purchasing some TLT at this level

UUP

That is sort of what i expected to happen. Longer term Greece getting bailed out is bad for the Euro

Irrational

This market action irrational. I am buying UUP here and will buy more as it goes lower.

Bounce

On this bounce closing UCO and UNG.

UNG

Picking up some UNG at $9.72 stop $9.00 target $11

UCO

Agressively purchasing UCO at $10.34

VXX

Yesterday in after hours trading VXX went up another 50 cents. It was if they were late to a really good bachelor party. Those traders who went long VXX in after hours are getting the bull horns this morning. I have significantly reduced my account size and i am sitting on 50% cash.

I will sell the spy calls on the open.

Asia

Bombay looked like the US did on friday with major market manipulation in the last hour of trading.

Hang Seng was very similiar to bombay.

Eventhough the Nikkie was don it looked the most bullish. Also China looke to have a healthy trading session.

Currently the market is very oversold and I have reduced some of my core holdings.

GOOG

Clearing GOOG short in extended trading for $533.00

Flush out

We didn't get a flush out and the market is extremely oversold. I have lightened up on some of my core holdings. Sold some TLT, VXX, and all my UUP. In addition made the purchase of some spy calls. Still hold USO.

Waiting for BIDU to report.

VXX, TLT, and UUP

Going to Sell 25% of my VXX.

Going to sell all of my UUP


Selling 25% of my TLT

SPY Calls

Purchasing the $106 march calls small amount here.

Selling the Miners

Selling GDX, NG, and AUY think we could go lower from here today

GOOG

Getting short some GOOG here at $538

Asia

The nikei was extremely weak last night. This could be from the weak loan demand report. Selling my USO here for a small loss. Eventhough China and India were down the markets showed nice relative strength. Today i will look to short rallies and do some very strict day trading.

Can't watch it anymore

Other than my core holdings of UUP, TLT, and VXX. I have FPL, SRS calls, USO, MPEL, and GU

My largest and riskiest play is bidu puts. Gonna call it a day.

For a swing play i am long AUY, GDX, and NG. When i saw the market making new lows and gold holding support and miners holding support it made me start thinking.

Dollar and Gold

I believe risky assetts such as stocks are going to sell off. The Dollar and Gold will rise together as the EURO will continue to get pounded.

Going Long the Miners

Going to go long AUY, NG, and GDX over the weekend.

SRS

Really think this relief rally is weak and we open down on monday. Gonna purchase a real small amount of march $10 dollar srs calls. Will sell them on monday more than likely on any gap down.

GU

Buying GU at $1.16

Shorts

Closing everything except TLT, VXX, and UUP

Also have FPL, MPEL,

Also buying USO

Bloggers

Reading 10-20 trading blogs can give you idea on trader sentiment. Most of these traders are looking to get long. This worries me.... If anything i will be flat or long puts over the weekend with my losses calculated.

Gold, Dollar, Semis, and Overseas

The telling signs that this sell off has came to an end will be with a correction in gold and the Dollar. If Gold Rallies and the Dollar stands firm we probably have lower equity prices to come.

The Hang Seng along with India sold off hard into the close.

Make sure to watch the semiconductor index for signs we have bottom.

The Dollar index spiked to highest reading in 3 months last night.

Capital Flows

This rhetoric between the United States and China is really bad. The worst i have ever seen or heard. This is the game changer and i why i am staying short. I believe 8800 dow next week is foreseeable.

Capital flows are going to slow down. People are going to buy Dollars and US T-bill like crazy over the next couple of months. TLT is buy far the best choice for the next 6 months.

Today was great day for my account ,but bad for the world. I am really bumbed out the way China and the US are handleing their differences. We are all in the same boat. We all share the earth. Hopefully it will end without violence or war.

BIDU

Purchasing more puts

Volume

Volume is telling me we could go a down a lot further tommorrow.

AAPL

Clearing Half of AAPL short. Bringing the stop for the remaining shares to $195.00

VXX

Even though VXX is way up from its close i still think it is a good value here and would reccommend purchasing on any weakness.

FPL

Buying some more FPL down here

MPEL and FBC

Purchasing MPEL at $3.60

Purchasing FBC at $.63

RIMM

Purchasing RIMM $65 puts march

XLF

Watch the XLF here $14.00 is critical support

AAPL

Bringing stop to break even on AAPL and GOOG short. Pruchasing the June $430 bidu puts.

Berkshire B

They are issuing 8 billion in stock. Being that this stock has just been added to the S&P 500 is negative for the index. Buyers of the index have all of this new inventory to work through.

Cisco, China, and Obama

Cisco reported great numbers but the home consumer division was really bad. Security and Router sales were way down, these are the private consumer products. Most of their sales were from commercial to private business or government upgraded networks or the Internet. This is my opinion and i listened to the call and questions.

China didn't sell off super hard compared to the Hang Seng and the Bombay markets.

Obama is really screwing up here. Going head to head with China is not going to help our economy. It is really saddening and the market will tell us the truth.

Just a reminder, A strong Dollar makes our good more expensive. The tourist that come here from Europe aren't going to come here any more. The I phones are going to cost them more. A strong Dollar is bearish for our economy.

Cisco

They have $4.2 billion in recievables and the days collected have tripled. Don't think this will weigh on the stock but double the A/R and triple the days.

AAPL and GOOG

Google has some insider selling, also i feel that upside is limited. Cisco is reporting after the bell and i believe that this is the underlying strength of tech today. Going to stay short AAPL and GOOG.

Dollar and Bonds

The dollar is rallying and bonds are selling off. Something has got to give. Buying more TLT on weakness. The MACD histogram on the weekly is about to turn positive for the first time in weeks.

Bearish Divergence

Really nice divergence on AAPL and GOOG intraday with CCI and ADX. Shorting AAPL at $199.25 and GOOG at $539.92.

Russell and Transports

Both of these indexes are being sold off hard

Today

Look at the Bull Power on the daily chart for ISRG pretty pittiful. The dollar is making higher highs than yesterday. This should bode bad for Gold and Oil. This down turn isn't finished yet. The $spx has some serious overhead resistance at 1100 and support at 1090.

Lets see what happens..

ISRG

Purchasing March $300 puts on ISRG for $3.40

Update

Clearing BIDU for a loss. Still have not purchased puts.

Sorry

June $400's there are no Aprils

BIDU

Gonna purchase the April $400 puts

BIDU

Shorted some more BIDU at $434 we have some pretty strong gap resistance at $434.

Gold and Oil

They have been the leading indicators of where the market is going. Gold is selling of pretty hard in premarket. This could be a real choppy day.

TBT

Selling the rest of TBT at $48.05. The job cut report is scaring the shit out of me from the long side. This TBT was the last of my longs.

BIDU

Will look at entry to short and buy puts today. Shorted a small share last night. It is gapping up even further this morning.

Technically it had an exhaustion gap with the GOOG news, MACD lines are weak, MACD histogram is weakening. Honestly i think the high price for paid search is comingto an end. YHOO, MSFT, GOOG, and BIDU are gonna battle it out hurting stock price.

Today BIDU had its pruce target upgraded by Goldman Sachs. What better way to provide a sell signal than that.

TBT

Sold half of TBT at $47.90

TLT

Buying some TLT at $91.10 premarket, will be holding this as a longer term trade

China

All of the growth is dependent on China. One of their major banks has decided to raise mortgage rates. The stock market does not like raising intrest rates. Shorting Chinese companies should be a good idea here. I am in particular focusing on BIDU and FXP. Also i believe the next down leg will be happening soon. I will slowly build a position in SPY June $108 puts.

Also VXX looked real attractive into the close yesterday.

BIDU

Opening a small short position at $429.00 in after hours.

Being Long

I think it would be better to close out positions from day trading. That being said the profit from USO and FPL is pretty nice and i am gonna close them out today. Closing UNG, AAPL, also. That leaves TBT which is a hedge and i will hold on to.

Don't feel like we are going to sell off just yet, but fon't feel comfortable being long. Still have the core holding of UUP, VXX, and TLT.

There is a nice little wave out back. Gonna call it an early day and go surfing.

Selling BIDU

Selling at $426

UNG

Has a bullish divergence here. Picking some up $9.89 stop $9.5 looking for $10.5

USO

Gonna bring the stop to $37.25 this locks in about $.35 cents of profit. Watch AAPL here it is really trying to break out GOOG also.

BIDU

Purchasing BIDU at $424

FPL

buying more FPL

SKF

The banks took a beating the last couple of weeks. Even if we go sideways for the next 2 weeks SKF will go down. Purchasing the february $24 puts for $1.17.

USO

Putting my stop at $36.50 target $39.50

AAPL Calls

Purchasing AAPL february $200 calls and APRIL $190 puts

UUP

It has gap support around $23.29. We close below that hello $80 dollar crude oil again. In addition TLT will see $89. Gold is on fire the last couple of days. Sorry to miss that one!

TBT

Gonna "HEDGE" my TLT by going long TBT today equal share amounts.

USO

Buying USO agressively this morning.

Next couple of Weeks

In elliott wave terms we are probably gona go through a triple zig zag.

This is what i think is going to happen. If you go back to the march low we had three pull backs that were all pretty swift and scary. During these times pundits and experts were saying we are going to new lows. I have a feeling some people want to get in on this dip. So new investors are going to get sucked in and insiders are going to sell.

This could push us back to new highs setting up the mother of all shorts. I am going to buy dips and sell rallies for the next couple of weeks.

Starting over

Exhausted mentally and making mistakes. Just closed out all my short term positions some for gains or losses. Flip a coin here, you have better odds.

AAPL

Purchasing April $190 puts at $7.65

FPL

Purchasing more FPL at $49.00

FXP

Buying FXP at $9.46, china closed lower last night and the FXI the etf that trades china is way up. So going long the inverse the FXP.

Looks like consumer spending is relatively week.

selling brk/b

selling it for .60 gain selling uso for a loss

Berkshire B

Buying some brk/b with the weakness being shown this morning

Selling UNG

Selling ung here at $9.71

BIDU

They are up quite a bit in premarket. Also on February 9th they report earnings. Will watch the stock closely this week and probably open a long put/long stock position.

Today

Getting overly aggressive on the short side does not make sense. Currently UNG and USO are my main short term holdings. In addition to these short term trades i am purchasing AUY in premarket at $10.24. Putting a stop just below $10 at $9.90 looking to get $11.00.

So i am changing my stance from short to long for the next couple of weeks.

The portfolio is pretty hedged here with my long term holdings of TLT, UUP, and VXX. In a perfect world these short term trades will off set my long term holding losses for the next couple of weeks.

Greece

It looks to me that they are going to get bailed out. This is not good for the Euro, could the Euro and Dollars be equals?

Looking to clear UNG and USO around 7:00.

Asia

At first glance one would think they had strength. Looking closer it was an extremely volatile trading session. We have FXI trading up and China had a relatively negative session making new lows for the year. In fact all the Asian indices made new year lows.

Going to purchase FXP on weakness this morning.