Thursday, July 22, 2010

Steve Kaplan

Steve i copied you, sorry but damnit your are smart:

The next decade will be challenging for most investors due to sharp fluctuations in both directions for nearly all assets, but the frequent extremes should make it easier for those who are paying attention to take advantage of the most glaring mispricings. There will be at least two compelling buying opportunities for equities, the first one in late 2011 and 2012 when commodity-share and emerging-market funds will be among the best choices, and the second one near the end of the decade when some as-yet-unknown sectors will be ideal for purchase. There will be some amazing lows for funds like TLT and EDV in the final years of the decade, which could produce triple-digit gains. While you should be eager to trade the most exaggerated extremes, you should be sufficiently disciplined not to participate at all other times. The initial surprise impact of rising mortgage rates in 2012-2013 will probably be negative almost everywhere, even in the most undervalued regions. Do not buy real estate in any given neighborhood until soaring mortgage rates a few years from now no longer have a negative impact on housing prices in that neighborhood. For example, if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises from 9% to 11% while housing prices remain approximately unchanged, then this is probably an ideal time to jump in.

Sorry steve please don't kick me off the service

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