Friday, December 31, 2010
SentimenTrader.com
Courtesy of Sentimen Trader: What an indicator above, i wish this site would post this indicator on a regular basis. The liquidity premium is the ratio of people who would rather hold the spy instead of the individual stocks (For liquidity purposes). You can see when this has been near the top of the range it has been a rather good indicator for picking tops in the market.
Silver
I am of the thought that Silver is a bad investment for 2011. I do believe gold will follow but i believe that silver has more downside risk. I am going to start shorting the SLV today. We are showing strength this morning and will open the first entry around $29.90
South Korea
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40858662
It looks as if the Bank will be raising interest rates to fight off inflation. When China did the first rate hike we had 8% downside. I have been looking at shorting the EWY lately and think i will put this position on today.
It looks as if the Bank will be raising interest rates to fight off inflation. When China did the first rate hike we had 8% downside. I have been looking at shorting the EWY lately and think i will put this position on today.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Facebook IPO
I believe that some funds will start freeing up cash to participate in the Facebook IPO which isn't even scheduled yet. It is coming they don't have a choice. This should pose a threat to large cap growth stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, and NFLX.
Netflix, GOOG, and AAPL
The big question is whether Google or Apple is going to buy Netflix or do it on there own. I believe Apple goes it alone and Google attempts to buy. This would be negative for Google who would end up being the loser.
Yes Google would ad to its ever growing empire ,but all in all would be a negative for the stock price. This streaming video is just getting started and there will be a lot of competition. If no one buys Netflix it sees under $100 by mid 2011.
Currently I am short Google.
Yes Google would ad to its ever growing empire ,but all in all would be a negative for the stock price. This streaming video is just getting started and there will be a lot of competition. If no one buys Netflix it sees under $100 by mid 2011.
Currently I am short Google.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Netflix
Is extremely oversold here and a bounce is do. I am closing my $200 march puts here and will look to reenter later.
Sun Times Article on Netflix and Sears
Sears introduces movie download service as Netflix rival
Sears said today it has launched a video download web site called Alphaline Entertainment that will let users download movies the day they are released on DVD or Blu-ray.
The site, alphaline.roxionow.com, runs on a platform run by licensee partner Sonic Solutions and its RoxioNow service. Sonic Solutions, based in Novato, Calif., concentrates on selling movies through retailers.
Separately, Sears said it will honor an unspecified number of gift cards that online shoppers obtained for 50 percent off because of a computer glitch Sunday night, the retailer said Tuesday. Sears canceled the erroneously discounted gift cards that had not yet been activated.
—Sandra Guy
Sears said today it has launched a video download web site called Alphaline Entertainment that will let users download movies the day they are released on DVD or Blu-ray.
The site, alphaline.roxionow.com, runs on a platform run by licensee partner Sonic Solutions and its RoxioNow service. Sonic Solutions, based in Novato, Calif., concentrates on selling movies through retailers.
Separately, Sears said it will honor an unspecified number of gift cards that online shoppers obtained for 50 percent off because of a computer glitch Sunday night, the retailer said Tuesday. Sears canceled the erroneously discounted gift cards that had not yet been activated.
—Sandra Guy
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Friday, December 24, 2010
NFLX and Comcast
I have been totally wired into the Netflix craze. I love netflix and believe their product kicks ass. Why doesn't comcast say this to all their users this," We are going to offer you unlimited On-Demand movies for an additional $7 dollars a month." This would create some competition for ole NFLX.
I believe it will happen sooner than later. This will create a mass exodus out of the stock and turn some contrary investors into overnight millionaires. Currently my 30 minute 10 day chart for Netflix is bearish. We have had a spike down on the CCI to -247.28, with the stock then attempting to rally. If we get a gap up on Monday I believe it could be an unbelievable shorting opportunity.
Disclosure: I own March $200 puts on NFLX as of close on thursday.
I believe it will happen sooner than later. This will create a mass exodus out of the stock and turn some contrary investors into overnight millionaires. Currently my 30 minute 10 day chart for Netflix is bearish. We have had a spike down on the CCI to -247.28, with the stock then attempting to rally. If we get a gap up on Monday I believe it could be an unbelievable shorting opportunity.
Disclosure: I own March $200 puts on NFLX as of close on thursday.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
FXI
I am buying some FXI $42 calls for $1.40, We are sitting right on the 200 ema and a are oversold lets see if we can get a bounce.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
One Trader Holds 80% of copper reserves
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034083436931412.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
This has me thinking, is it a good time to short copper. Why would this person by almost all the worlds copper and store it. Copper is setting all time highs. Why?
This has me thinking, is it a good time to short copper. Why would this person by almost all the worlds copper and store it. Copper is setting all time highs. Why?
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
RIMM
This guy is looking sickly. I have been long RIMM puts since last week. I aint selling them till RIMM sees $25. You don't need a lot of plays to make money in 2011.
Friday, December 17, 2010
TLT
I am selling my TLT this morning at $92.26, i believe we will be able to get better prices later this year.
RIMM
I see some serious trouble for RIMM, we were trading near $62 yesterday after hours and we are under $60 this morning. I am gonna get short this one with some march $60 puts on early morning strength.
TLT
I had an order of TLT filled at $90.50. I am looking to get more long this fund as we approach $89. Also i have a sneaky suspicion that this fund needs to touch $86. At this point i have an alert to buy as many of the January 2012 $86 dollar calls as i can possibly afford.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
TLT
I find it so funny that the top insiders buying yesterday was of pimco's bond funds. These guys were buying bonds like crazy yesterday. I am looking to get long TLT again.
Currently i am placing some orders around $90.5.
Currently i am placing some orders around $90.5.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
IR
I am opening a small short line on IR, there a/c product is inferior and after this tax credit expires for 15 seer equipment sales will fall off drastically.
Best Buy
Is getting taken out to the wood shed this morning. A little overdone will look to get long the stock after a couple of days for a least a bounce.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Technical Indicators
All point that a top was made today. I shorted a handful of stocks today around 11:ooam and closed them around 3:30. I am in full daytrading mode shorting early morning strength.
I think Google is in trouble. The insiders are selling it the technicals look horrid and some new anti-trust lawsuits are being thrown around. I am short GOOG since $590 and have an order to short more at $605.
I think Google is in trouble. The insiders are selling it the technicals look horrid and some new anti-trust lawsuits are being thrown around. I am short GOOG since $590 and have an order to short more at $605.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Hedging
Currently i am long F, MPEL, and CHK. I also opened a short line on the VXX. On monday we should have a nice gap up. I am closing my VXX short line and opening april puts on all my long holdings.
MPEL will buy the april $6 puts
F the april $16 puts
CHK the april $22 puts
If we get a rally into year end i will sell covered calls on these positions to help finance the hedge.
I have been timid of shorting GOOG and i am waiting for this stock to get close to $580 then i will short in 50 share stock increments into $600.
MPEL will buy the april $6 puts
F the april $16 puts
CHK the april $22 puts
If we get a rally into year end i will sell covered calls on these positions to help finance the hedge.
I have been timid of shorting GOOG and i am waiting for this stock to get close to $580 then i will short in 50 share stock increments into $600.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
The Banks
I am wondering why everyone is starting to wonder the rally we are having. Its the banks. They have stopped going down and are starting to head up. This is a huge factor and could keep us going into at least january.
Also very important is the extension of the Bush tax cuts. If these tax cuts expire we are serious trouble. Keep your finger on the sell button.
Also very important is the extension of the Bush tax cuts. If these tax cuts expire we are serious trouble. Keep your finger on the sell button.
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