Note: Holidays and weekends are not considered trading days in most markets. So, when a phase date occurs on Saturday, we use Friday's date. When a phase date occurs on Sunday, we use Monday's date (except when trading Forex because Sunday is an actual trading day in the Forex market). Also, because Forex is a 24-hour market, make sure you know what time the day session officially starts in your time zone to interpret the phase dates properly.
January 30th was Full moon. Now this by no means is exact but it sure is lining up with some oversold indications. So if trading by moon would have gone long on the Friday close.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Saturday, January 30, 2010
George Soros and the Market
He is claiming that Gold is in the ultimate bubble. Really George, you may want to tell Jim Rogers the same thing.
All kidding aside i think Gold is a horrible investment here. As i have said time and time again most of my account holds TLT. I started buying it around 2 months ago. Been buying in 50 and 100 share lots and hold about $100,000 dollars of it or 1000 shares. This may not be a lot for some people ,but for me it is substantial for me. I fell strongly that the downside is maybe $85 and the upside is $105. I bought more of it on friday when it showed weakness and will keep buying it at these levels.
VXX- i own some VXX also. I have been buying VXX since $42. This has turned out to be a loser for me but my largest purchase and best fill was at $27.50. On Friday i was o tempted to sell some and get this elephant of my back but then looked at the put call ratios. There is still a lot of call buying going on. We need some serious put buying to push this thing back up. From here on out i will not even think about selling VXX until it has an Everest type rise (Vertical Ascent).
UUP- this is an ETF that tracks the US dollar. This fund is a primary holding my account also. I have a stop at $22.66 which was my entry 1st entry and will buy more if we get even close to $23.00. I have purchased UUP at $22.66, $22.90, $23.05. Looking for at least $25.00 as an exit.
Back in October, it realized that my wife had not cashed out of her mutual fund. I quickly called her dad on a bad skype connection telling him to sell it. I told him I thought the market was in for some serious trouble. He couldn't understand my babel about deflation and that the Chinese were going to raise interest rates. I ended up sending him an email that i thought we had seen the top and to sell it. Then corrected my stance and told him that i was short so we were hedged with the mutual fund being long. You can only imagine how much pain i went through over the next two months with market slowly going up. In december he sold that mutual fund right near the top 10,600. Great Job Dean!
Oh yeah, we are back to that exact same level in October 10,000. 3 months to get there 3 weeks to get plunge back down. We took the stairs up and the Bungee cord down.
Here are some Elephants i am looking at for Monday.
BIDU
GOOG
SHLD
AMZN
All kidding aside i think Gold is a horrible investment here. As i have said time and time again most of my account holds TLT. I started buying it around 2 months ago. Been buying in 50 and 100 share lots and hold about $100,000 dollars of it or 1000 shares. This may not be a lot for some people ,but for me it is substantial for me. I fell strongly that the downside is maybe $85 and the upside is $105. I bought more of it on friday when it showed weakness and will keep buying it at these levels.
VXX- i own some VXX also. I have been buying VXX since $42. This has turned out to be a loser for me but my largest purchase and best fill was at $27.50. On Friday i was o tempted to sell some and get this elephant of my back but then looked at the put call ratios. There is still a lot of call buying going on. We need some serious put buying to push this thing back up. From here on out i will not even think about selling VXX until it has an Everest type rise (Vertical Ascent).
UUP- this is an ETF that tracks the US dollar. This fund is a primary holding my account also. I have a stop at $22.66 which was my entry 1st entry and will buy more if we get even close to $23.00. I have purchased UUP at $22.66, $22.90, $23.05. Looking for at least $25.00 as an exit.
Back in October, it realized that my wife had not cashed out of her mutual fund. I quickly called her dad on a bad skype connection telling him to sell it. I told him I thought the market was in for some serious trouble. He couldn't understand my babel about deflation and that the Chinese were going to raise interest rates. I ended up sending him an email that i thought we had seen the top and to sell it. Then corrected my stance and told him that i was short so we were hedged with the mutual fund being long. You can only imagine how much pain i went through over the next two months with market slowly going up. In december he sold that mutual fund right near the top 10,600. Great Job Dean!
Oh yeah, we are back to that exact same level in October 10,000. 3 months to get there 3 weeks to get plunge back down. We took the stairs up and the Bungee cord down.
Here are some Elephants i am looking at for Monday.
BIDU
GOOG
SHLD
AMZN
Friday, January 29, 2010
Nasty Winter Weather
There is one nasty snow storm coming through and UNG today is taking a beating. Gonna swing long some shares and see if we can get a bounce a next week.
AMZN
"It is having a false upside breakout one of the most reliable technical indicators"
Alexander Elder
Alexander Elder
The Fed
One has to wonder why the fed didn't raise rates. They are increasing reserves for banks also making sure a certain percentage of the loans are good. This is great for the dollar. It makes US treasuries attractive because the coupon payment is in dollars. Also one would be gaining some forex exposure because the dollar is raising in value. That being said TLT is way under valued here.
Raising rates would have made our debt look very attractive for foreign countries.
Raising rates would have made our debt look very attractive for foreign countries.
AAPL
Clearing AAPL short and closing my april puts. Nice gain ,but lost almost the same as the gain with feb puts. All in all a net gain but emotion got the best of me.
India
They decided to not raise interest rates but increased bank reserve requirements. This is a deflationary act that takes money out of circulation. Very similiar to what is happening in the United States. This is very Bullish for Bonds and the Dollar. When the Dollar increasing in value of the interest paid on bonds is worth even more.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Market Update
Well here is my thoughts. Take it or leave it.
Technically we have a tick down on the Monthly Chart MACD histogram. Everyone knows you can't trade the monthly ,but it is worth noting. We moved this far down with very little bear power. This is a confirmation we will go lower. When who knows?
Technically Weekly Chart, we have our second negative tick on the macd histogram. A Sell signal. We are extremely overbought on all stochastics. This is a confirmation we can go lower. When who knows? Also the 10 EMA has had 2 consective ticks down. The last time this happened was during the pullback in June. 26 ema has one tick down, in june we had two ticks down. Ok another confirmation we are going lower.
Lets get Lunar. Buy on full moon, we don't have that until sunday so do we buy on friday or monday. These longs are gonna get scared holding through the weekend. I expect some strength tommorrow then short heavily and hold through the weekend.
Technically we have a tick down on the Monthly Chart MACD histogram. Everyone knows you can't trade the monthly ,but it is worth noting. We moved this far down with very little bear power. This is a confirmation we will go lower. When who knows?
Technically Weekly Chart, we have our second negative tick on the macd histogram. A Sell signal. We are extremely overbought on all stochastics. This is a confirmation we can go lower. When who knows? Also the 10 EMA has had 2 consective ticks down. The last time this happened was during the pullback in June. 26 ema has one tick down, in june we had two ticks down. Ok another confirmation we are going lower.
Lets get Lunar. Buy on full moon, we don't have that until sunday so do we buy on friday or monday. These longs are gonna get scared holding through the weekend. I expect some strength tommorrow then short heavily and hold through the weekend.
Critical DOW
Man a DOW 10,000 break is very critical for any www.hsdent.com followers or www.martinarmstrong.org followers.
Hopefully we can get a recovery rally where i can reshort. Other than my long term holdings:UUP, TLT, VXX,: i have some April AAPL puts and AAPL short.
Lets see if we can get a break of 10,000. Also i still have my spy calls and was stopped out of my goog calls. We have a Full moon coming up on sunday which would mean buy tommorrow.
Going long over the weekend would mean a lot of stress so i will wait to reshort markets and hold the spy calls.
Hopefully we can get a recovery rally where i can reshort. Other than my long term holdings:UUP, TLT, VXX,: i have some April AAPL puts and AAPL short.
Lets see if we can get a break of 10,000. Also i still have my spy calls and was stopped out of my goog calls. We have a Full moon coming up on sunday which would mean buy tommorrow.
Going long over the weekend would mean a lot of stress so i will wait to reshort markets and hold the spy calls.
This move down
The move down isn't being confirmed with vix or bonds. This is leading me to buy some Feb 110 calls. Very small amount. Will buy some more if we make a new LOD. Also buying some GOOG $550 calls feb.
Asia and Markets
Asia looked really weak last night. India and China didn't go full bore with the news of the US not raising interest rates. I want to see one more push down before clearing these AAPL puts from yesterday.
Longer term i will continue to buy TLT, UUP, and VXX, on any weakness they show. Will look to add additional SPY puts when the DOW gets to 10,500-10,450.
Longer term i will continue to buy TLT, UUP, and VXX, on any weakness they show. Will look to add additional SPY puts when the DOW gets to 10,500-10,450.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Risky play
Purchasing the $200 aapl february puts here at $6.50. Could be worthless so doing a real small amount. Will definitely hold until tommorrow.
Not impressed
I don't think the tablet is all that practical. Then again i didn't like the i-phone at first.
Lighting Striking Twice
AAPL is setting up the same way as yesterday with a new high on the CCI and not a new price high. Will it have the same price action?
The Shorts
The shorts are strong. The bulls are timid. Really looks like we need one more push down to get rid of the early bulls. This will create an opportunity to swing long. Even though i won't participate i believe some of the stocks to look at would be:
GOOG
GLD
TBT
FAS
LVS
RIMM
And of course AAPL
GOOG
GLD
TBT
FAS
LVS
RIMM
And of course AAPL
A Bounce
Everyone is expecting a bounce. I mean everyone i read. There is no way i am getting long this market over the weekend. If we sell hard on monday i may get long, but more than not i will wait and look to reshort.
USO and GLD are pretty batterred. If someone "Has" to trade i would look there.
I will hold my TLT, UUP, and VXX. Will add to these over the next couple weeks on any weakness they show.
USO and GLD are pretty batterred. If someone "Has" to trade i would look there.
I will hold my TLT, UUP, and VXX. Will add to these over the next couple weeks on any weakness they show.
Asia
The indian markets were down almost 3% last night. The pundits are saying that this is due to india being closed for a holiday. Action was gap down and sell hard into the close. People in India were put in the exact same scenario as the United States was during the Dubai debt crisis.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
AAPL is down over 2.5% in frankfurt. I hope i can add to my short position today with some puts. Currently AAPL is trading up over $2.00 dollars in premarket.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
AAPL is down over 2.5% in frankfurt. I hope i can add to my short position today with some puts. Currently AAPL is trading up over $2.00 dollars in premarket.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
shanghai
The Shanghai index just pierced through 3000. The last time this happenned was in November 2009.
LVS and my account
Exiting LVS and spy callsfor a small gain/loss. Today i was a nervous wreck and couldn't make a decision. The account is up 35% for the past two weeks and i am going to sit on aapl short because i believe the upside is limited.
In addition, i am exiting USO for a small loss here also.
Currently my holdings are:
AAPL short 20% size
UUP long 50% size
TLT long 25% size
VXX long 75% size
I can sleep tonight unless the Apple tablet can give sexual gratification along with doing the wife's hair.
Going to participate in a webinar with Alexander Elder tonight. His meetings are worth every dime and you can register at http://www.elder.com/
In addition, i am exiting USO for a small loss here also.
Currently my holdings are:
AAPL short 20% size
UUP long 50% size
TLT long 25% size
VXX long 75% size
I can sleep tonight unless the Apple tablet can give sexual gratification along with doing the wife's hair.
Going to participate in a webinar with Alexander Elder tonight. His meetings are worth every dime and you can register at http://www.elder.com/
Exhaustion Gap
AAPL is providing us with a great technical indicator here. I am entering a short position now.
USO
Gonna nibble on some USO here. Crude oil has been batterred down pretty hard. I exited my short position way to early. Think it could bounce to $38-$39 short term.
Entering on $36.59 stop at $36 looking for $38.50
Entering on $36.59 stop at $36 looking for $38.50
FXI
Buying FXI at $38.81 stop at $38.26 we are at critical support from september for china. This market has been hammered lately and could bounce.
GOOG
Selling my GOOG calls. I must have caught the bottom or real close at $7.70 for my 5 calls. Selling here at $11.20. I would consider myself a nervous long at this point. If i feel this way i am sure that the rest of the market does also. I will hold LVS and SPY calls. I am pretty hedged right now because i also own TLT, VXX, and UUP.
Going to wait to go 100% short. Been on quite a winning streak lately and think taking a couple of days off, this may help extend my gains.
Going to wait to go 100% short. Been on quite a winning streak lately and think taking a couple of days off, this may help extend my gains.
Spy Puts
I sold all of my spy puts for a nice gain. Lost a little on AAPL.
Purchased Feb GOOG $560 calls and Spy $111 calls.
Still own and will purchase more TLT, VXX, and UUP on weakness.
Purchased Feb GOOG $560 calls and Spy $111 calls.
Still own and will purchase more TLT, VXX, and UUP on weakness.
Spy Puts
I am going to sell some of my spy puts at the open. Also i will look to unload the aapl puts for a small loss.
Looking to get long for a bounce.
Looking to get long for a bounce.
China and US
We are not building a better relationship with our number one supplier. China is scorning the United States for getting invloved with the Google case. This is only going to hurt us.
Today's Plan
Really watching the 10,000 number on the DOW. If we pierce through it i will sell the remainder of my spy puts. AAPL is trading up this morning. I may buy the stock as a hedge against my puts.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Your Joking Right?
AAPL trading down? They blew out numbers more than anyone else. This is absurd, something else is in control on this not earnings.
We are going to go lower from here.
We are going to go lower from here.
AAPL and Earnings
I am reading the 10k and AAPL blew out the earnings. $15 billion in revenue and $3 a share earnings
AAPL
The whisper number for AAPL is $12.06 billion in revenue and $2.07 a share. Now the headline will read AAPL blows out projections. Which are considerably less than the whisper numbers.
If the trend is to sell the news then AAPL is a nice short here. I am buying the April $200 puts so my downside is limited. Personally, AAPL growing to $250 a share is not foreseeable. The market is always correct and we will see.
If the trend is to sell the news then AAPL is a nice short here. I am buying the April $200 puts so my downside is limited. Personally, AAPL growing to $250 a share is not foreseeable. The market is always correct and we will see.
Divergences
I am seeing technical divergences on the intraday chart. We also have the oversees indices that were negative last night. Although most of my positions are longer term i think one could short here into the close.
Also GLD is a buy on the hourly chart ,but i am not man enough to pull the trigger just yet. There isn't enough compelling evidence.
Also GLD is a buy on the hourly chart ,but i am not man enough to pull the trigger just yet. There isn't enough compelling evidence.
Stoked
My good friend Graham thought it was funny when i say stoked. Right now i am stoked.
This gap up this morning is going to be so shortable for at least 3 points on the ES.
Going to sell my spy calls and short the es off the open.
This gap up this morning is going to be so shortable for at least 3 points on the ES.
Going to sell my spy calls and short the es off the open.
Gapping UP
We are going to gap up if all things stay the same until the market opens. This has been in one hell of trend, "Mutual Fund Mondays." The inflows from mutual funds into the marketson mondays. As of right now the only plan i have is to sell my Feb $109 Spy calls on the open.
AAPL reports today!
On a side note GLD was a screaming buy at the close on friday. It held support and stopped going down. I am kicking myself for not taking the trade.
AAPL reports today!
On a side note GLD was a screaming buy at the close on friday. It held support and stopped going down. I am kicking myself for not taking the trade.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Deep Thoughts
The more and more i think about the action, this possible scenario wets my palette. We have cities and states that are defaulting on debt and raising taxes. Unemployment on the rise. Companies blowing out earnings but lowering guidance and giving doubtful projections. So here we go.
The senate is not going to reappoint Ben Bernanke. We are going to have buy the rumor sell the news scenario. I am going to hold my spy puts, UUP, TLT, and VXX. On Friday i purchased some February spy calls, to catch some of the upside we will see next week. During this next move up i am going to ladder some additional TLT, VXX, and SPY April puts.
If we gap down on Monday i will probable sell the remainder of my spy puts. These puts are for march. Then instead of buying more calls and pushing the rally i will patiently wait and nibble on the short side. In addition, if we do rally GOLD should push up hard and the dollar could retrace.
Those are my deep thoughts for the next week.
The senate is not going to reappoint Ben Bernanke. We are going to have buy the rumor sell the news scenario. I am going to hold my spy puts, UUP, TLT, and VXX. On Friday i purchased some February spy calls, to catch some of the upside we will see next week. During this next move up i am going to ladder some additional TLT, VXX, and SPY April puts.
If we gap down on Monday i will probable sell the remainder of my spy puts. These puts are for march. Then instead of buying more calls and pushing the rally i will patiently wait and nibble on the short side. In addition, if we do rally GOLD should push up hard and the dollar could retrace.
Those are my deep thoughts for the next week.
Friday, January 22, 2010
update
Selling half of my 100 spy puts here.
Buying back or clearing my GLD Short
Selling half my TLT
I think they are going to can Bernanke and the markets will rally. Buying february $109 spy calls against my march $111 puts.
Buying back or clearing my GLD Short
Selling half my TLT
I think they are going to can Bernanke and the markets will rally. Buying february $109 spy calls against my march $111 puts.
Alex Feldman Bull/Bear update
Just thought this graph would help keeps things in perspective. I am still holding my spy puts, GLD short, TLT Long, VXX Long, and long UUP. Once we get a rally in AAPL i am going to short it hard along with GOOG again.
GOOG
Selling here at $565
GLD is not looking so good. Gonna give it some more time but will exit of the market turns down
GLD is not looking so good. Gonna give it some more time but will exit of the market turns down
UUP & GLD
Going to remove my stop on UUP for today and will buy more if it drops back to $22.75. Also going to buy GLD here premarket. This is a form of a straddle.
Buying GLD premarket at $107.16
Buying GLD premarket at $107.16
GOOG
Gonna nibble on GOOG long Premarket at $560.00. I think i can pick up 10 points before the market even opens. The bad/good news is priced in. Doing a 25% share lot here.
The Dollar
Finnally found 0ut why the dollar tanked yesterday. Traders were selling the dollar because of the obama bank plan. We will have a great opportunity to short Gold again and purchase more dollars on this dip.
The Hang Seng recovered a lot last night. I now would think we open higher and shorting the gap up could be a nice trade.
The Hang Seng recovered a lot last night. I now would think we open higher and shorting the gap up could be a nice trade.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Selling Hard in Asia
Would China let there market fail. Why wouldn't they? That would be the healthiest thing to do.
I think that we could see two more serious down days before we bounce. This by no means should be taken as hard facts. Most of my short exposure is through put options so my downside is limited.
This down move is different than the past. Interest rates are rising.
Asia is selling off hard.
I think that we could see two more serious down days before we bounce. This by no means should be taken as hard facts. Most of my short exposure is through put options so my downside is limited.
This down move is different than the past. Interest rates are rising.
Asia is selling off hard.
Citi
There was heavy insider selling of citigroup after the bell. Don't know if it is a one time thing , but it was substantial.
GOOG and Markets
Any Bounce in GOOG should be shorted from here on out. Same with AAPL. Gonna clear half my GLD Short in after hours. Clearing at $107.32. entry $111.50 nice gain. Markets are getting a little over sold on the hourly charts ,but we have been so over bought. What i mean is that it is going to take a while on the daily and weekly charts to have a decent buying opportunity.
Went long some MPEL today. Using $0 as my stop. This is a small cap casino that i feel will fair well in the coming recession.
My purchase was $3.70, it can be bought cheaper now.
Do you think Facebook is taking any of googles market share?
Went long some MPEL today. Using $0 as my stop. This is a small cap casino that i feel will fair well in the coming recession.
My purchase was $3.70, it can be bought cheaper now.
Do you think Facebook is taking any of googles market share?
UUP
Adding to UUP at $23.05 leaving stop at $22.90. Don't know exactly why the dollar just took a hit but i am buying it.
UPS, GLD, AAPL and MON
Clearing UPS and MON here for small gains. If the market bounces these guys could really boost to the upside.
Clearing AAPL short here at $208.3 (Nice Shooting Tex)
Bringing GLD stop to $110.00. (Entry Was $111.50)
Going to sell 10% of my spy puts.
Bringing UUP stop to $22.90
TLT is working nicely, i do not have a stop and think the year will look very well for this trade. Also own some VXX and do not have a stop but will exit if the $VIX reaches 40.
Clearing AAPL short here at $208.3 (Nice Shooting Tex)
Bringing GLD stop to $110.00. (Entry Was $111.50)
Going to sell 10% of my spy puts.
Bringing UUP stop to $22.90
TLT is working nicely, i do not have a stop and think the year will look very well for this trade. Also own some VXX and do not have a stop but will exit if the $VIX reaches 40.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
China GDP and CPI
The numbers came in and CPI came in worse than expected. Currently they are selling the commodities. Gonna get some sleep and will check it in the morning.
Here is theme. China is tightening! This will slow consumption. Hello wave 3 down.
Here is theme. China is tightening! This will slow consumption. Hello wave 3 down.
Jobless Claims
The jobless claims are tomorrow. This could catch the markets by surprise, there was very little talk about this today. The focus was on the MA senator who posed nude in Cosmo and drives a truck. This type of stuff is great for bears. Sell it off, it is now Obama's fault.
I was really surprised with Starbucks numbers today. Never would have thought they would have beat by so much.
stuck short with AAPL and probably should have cleared.
All in all i am short with not arbitrage or straddles which have been very effective lately. I came really close t0 buying the spy today for a long stock, long put straddle.
The Nikkei sold off hard 100 points in the first 15 minutes to recover green with in the first hour. Is this not volatilty?
So far the last week has been very profitable. I still have my eye on SHLD.
I was really surprised with Starbucks numbers today. Never would have thought they would have beat by so much.
stuck short with AAPL and probably should have cleared.
All in all i am short with not arbitrage or straddles which have been very effective lately. I came really close t0 buying the spy today for a long stock, long put straddle.
The Nikkei sold off hard 100 points in the first 15 minutes to recover green with in the first hour. Is this not volatilty?
So far the last week has been very profitable. I still have my eye on SHLD.
Market
Cannot think of anything to do here. The market has had a pretty quick sell off and i think it has a little more downside. All of my positions are green except a couple of the out the money spy puts. Could the bears get a lickin one more time? The world does not want republicans to take over. This will be shown in their markets tonight. We will have one more down day tommorrow and i will consider taking some profits.
China
Didn't all of our hopes come from China being the next consumer. Last night or yesterday the Chinese government asked banks to stop lending so much to slow their economy. The Shanghai market took a clip of 2.93% last night. The H-Shares and Han Sang were down big also. This does not bode well for the US markets.
My aapl short i am going to remove the stop for the first 30 minutes of trading typically there are large price swings that can hit your stop.
Do you see GLD Down a buck premarket.
Take a look at GOOG also trading down $2.00 in premarket. This could get really fun over the next month. I am so bearish on tech giants that trade at this multiple and don't pay a dividend.
My aapl short i am going to remove the stop for the first 30 minutes of trading typically there are large price swings that can hit your stop.
Do you see GLD Down a buck premarket.
Take a look at GOOG also trading down $2.00 in premarket. This could get really fun over the next month. I am so bearish on tech giants that trade at this multiple and don't pay a dividend.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Rally Buy Buy
That was the most ridiculus rally ever. I am shorting GLD in after hours here.
$111.50 putting a stop at $114 looking for $100.
Buying some more TLT also.
$111.50 putting a stop at $114 looking for $100.
Buying some more TLT also.
ADX
The ADX indicator on the daily is really low for all the indices. We are either going to break down or bust super hard to the upside and start a new trading range. I am leaning bearish here.
$214
$214 for AAPL is non conforming on the daily with RSI, MACD, ADX bearish divergences. Going to sell 25% position here short for $214.1 with a 3 point stop.
Spy Puts
Buying some more March spy puts here the $111.00
Reallythink the market could roll over here.
Reallythink the market could roll over here.
AAPL
Selling AAPL at $212 for 5 points. Nice gain and could probably get more but really think that aapl is setting up for a sell the news scenario. Still have the April 200 put and it is fully financed now meaning i can't lose money on the arbitrage/straddle trade.
UUP i am bringing the stop to $22.5
MON i am still short
Same with UPS
UUP i am bringing the stop to $22.5
MON i am still short
Same with UPS
Friday, January 15, 2010
Over Trading
Had a friend ask me about going long on monday from the pull back. I would not reccommend that here. This year is going to be a hard year to make money. Here are my favorite plays for 2010.
Long TLT
Long UUP
Short AAPL ( after earnings)
Short GOOG ( after earnings)
Long selective small caps or casino stocks.
Long Robotic companies also
Latin America
Veitnam through VNM
I also think GOLD will be buy ,but it needs to pull back some more. I opened a small GLD short position on Thursday and didn't share it with the blog because it was a gamble. Now i think any bounce in GLD should be shorted.
Remember you don't always have to be doing something. I sure would have made a lot more money this year with out shorting TBT and SHLD. Two really bad trades. In addition i have been pressing this bull market instead of going with the trend and have need stopped out 4 times going short. Currently i do have some long dated put options on the SPY, some VXX, 30% of my money is in TLT, also a very small position in BGZ.
My current swing trades are: Long AAPL, Long UUP, Short MON, Short UPS.
Long TLT
Long UUP
Short AAPL ( after earnings)
Short GOOG ( after earnings)
Long selective small caps or casino stocks.
Long Robotic companies also
Latin America
Veitnam through VNM
I also think GOLD will be buy ,but it needs to pull back some more. I opened a small GLD short position on Thursday and didn't share it with the blog because it was a gamble. Now i think any bounce in GLD should be shorted.
Remember you don't always have to be doing something. I sure would have made a lot more money this year with out shorting TBT and SHLD. Two really bad trades. In addition i have been pressing this bull market instead of going with the trend and have need stopped out 4 times going short. Currently i do have some long dated put options on the SPY, some VXX, 30% of my money is in TLT, also a very small position in BGZ.
My current swing trades are: Long AAPL, Long UUP, Short MON, Short UPS.
MON
Going to clear half of the $82.6 entry here and bringing the other lot to break even on the stop. Not a bad trade but it is pretty over sold here and feel it could bounce. Currently have a 25% share here on MON.
AAPL
AAPL is probably going to blow out earnings. They report next week. I am thinking about going long for a trade into earnings. Going reall small here 25% at $207 with a $205 stop. Also i own an april $200 put so it is a type of straddle. We will see would love to get $220 then wait two or three days then get super short on aapl.
Looking at shorting RIMM also but havn't figuired why it is so strong here.
Looking at shorting RIMM also but havn't figuired why it is so strong here.
Market
Havn't been able to watch the market too closely but i think we could bounce here. This risk reward is not enough for me to go long. Going to use it as an opportunity to get short. Any bounce in GLD should be shorted.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
MON stop
MON Stop is $85.00.
Still in UPS short and UUP long. I am looking really hard at some casino stocks to buy. MPEL is on my list. MON is working really well so far.
Still in UPS short and UUP long. I am looking really hard at some casino stocks to buy. MPEL is on my list. MON is working really well so far.
GLD
Looking at GLD it could be a possible short here also.
Why so many shorts! Would love to go long but i would like to see a pull back first. The new moon is tommorrow.
Why so many shorts! Would love to go long but i would like to see a pull back first. The new moon is tommorrow.
MON
I think this MON news should be getting more press than it is. Going to short 25% of the position at $82.6 will reshort at higher or lower prices depending on price action. This looks to me like big tabacco and lung cancer.
Seeds of change
Currently i am working from nicaragua about to head home. While me and wife were having dinner at a new french hotel we came accross a very rich nicaraguan. He is a farmer and was very interesting to talk to. One of his main concerns is with the fertilizer company monsanto. They are basically creating a fertilizer that locks the farmer into their company. In addition, he procalimed his extreme disgust with the company and that the devil himself was the CEO.
Since then i have searched chat rooms and other sites to find out more information about the modified seed that makes it so only farmers can use Monsanto fertilizer. The goverment released a report today requiring monsanto to provide information for antitrust regulation.
Currently I am looking to short MON on this infromation.
http://www.newfrontier.com/asheville/bad_seed.htm
Since then i have searched chat rooms and other sites to find out more information about the modified seed that makes it so only farmers can use Monsanto fertilizer. The goverment released a report today requiring monsanto to provide information for antitrust regulation.
Currently I am looking to short MON on this infromation.
http://www.newfrontier.com/asheville/bad_seed.htm
Elder.com
Was lucky enough to attend a webinar last night with Dr. Elder. Some of the highlights were as follows.
The last time the MACD histogram was this high for the DOW was 2003. Monthly chart
The NASDAQ looks the weakest with a bearish divergence
AMEX is weaker than all the indices
We do have a new high reading on the new high new low index which is bullish long term but bearish short term. (Strong below the surface but way overbought)
The fact the DOW may new highs yesterday and the other indices did not is a sign of a late stage bull market.
We also have a 7 year high rydex/bull bear ratio.
He also shares my opinion for AAPL and GOOG. He currently is waiting on aapl which i am also and he is short goog.
The last time the MACD histogram was this high for the DOW was 2003. Monthly chart
The NASDAQ looks the weakest with a bearish divergence
AMEX is weaker than all the indices
We do have a new high reading on the new high new low index which is bullish long term but bearish short term. (Strong below the surface but way overbought)
The fact the DOW may new highs yesterday and the other indices did not is a sign of a late stage bull market.
We also have a 7 year high rydex/bull bear ratio.
He also shares my opinion for AAPL and GOOG. He currently is waiting on aapl which i am also and he is short goog.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
$vix
Another little clue that volatilty is gonna return. Check out the march 17th 32.50 call for the vix. Almost triple the open interest.
SHLD and UPS
Did get stopped out this morning for a loss
Still short UPS and USO.
Looking to short aapl will wait until after earnings on the 21st
Still short UPS and USO.
Looking to short aapl will wait until after earnings on the 21st
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Current Trades
I am very proud of my goog trade. I am gonna buy it back here or clear my short position. This trade was one of my best of the year. Picking up close to 40 points on two trades.
UPS and SHLD have not been working too well but sticking with the plan.
USO is in a downtrend and i have been short since $41. Bringing my stop to break even.
UUP is the latest trade and is working well so far.
Whenever i have to look really hard i make a mistake. That being said i am gonna make more high percentage trades in 2010. Shorting SHLD before earnings was flat out stupid.
Today the put call ratio is still very high. I really wonder who would be buying calls at these levels. Today i am shorting UPS calls. The February $65. This is soley to finance other positions.
UPS and SHLD have not been working too well but sticking with the plan.
USO is in a downtrend and i have been short since $41. Bringing my stop to break even.
UUP is the latest trade and is working well so far.
Whenever i have to look really hard i make a mistake. That being said i am gonna make more high percentage trades in 2010. Shorting SHLD before earnings was flat out stupid.
Today the put call ratio is still very high. I really wonder who would be buying calls at these levels. Today i am shorting UPS calls. The February $65. This is soley to finance other positions.
Dollar and Gold
The dollar is taking it on the chin and gold is going down also. This relationship is not working one of them is going to correct. I am betting on the dollar making a rebound.
Going to purchase uup here at $22.66 $22.40 stop $24 target.
Going to purchase uup here at $22.66 $22.40 stop $24 target.
Inverse ETFS
Inverse ETFS such as BGZ, SKF, FAZ, and TYP are extremely hated right now. The volume on a daily basis has dried up and they have been steadily going down. It wouldn't take a whole lot to move these etfs around some. My favorite is BGZ.
Monday, January 11, 2010
SHLD
Short SHLD at $98.50 stops at $101 and looking for $85. All the good news is out for sears and ups
Positions
Another up monday and i will open down on the account. Gonna temporarily move my goog stop and put it back in place after the opening price action.
USO is going to work out it just needs some time.
Will be shorting SHLD very aggressively
Also will be watching UPS for a short.
There is a lot of chatter about interest rates.
USO is going to work out it just needs some time.
Will be shorting SHLD very aggressively
Also will be watching UPS for a short.
There is a lot of chatter about interest rates.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Hints
Sometimes trading the market you have to be a detective. One thing i watch is the option action in the $VIX. The VIX is down but the Feb $37.50 calls are trading at a premium. Now i have been wrong on watching thi before but the dubai debacle this was a leading indicator. Sort of like knowing what the dealer has in his hand.
USO
Oil is selling off pretty hard here. This has been a leading indicator for a while on market direction. Reall think shorting spy here is a great idea. Gonna add a couple of $111 february puts at spy $114.00
UPS
Really want to short UPS here but will wait. After being up so much it is good idea to wait a day.
SHLD
Shorting them again here at $99.63 using a $103 stop and $85 target. Will exit the trade of the RSI drops below 15 on the 20 day 60 minute hourly chart.
Shorting USO here at $41 using a $42 stop and $37 target same rule applies above.
Also think that the downtrend for mighty GOOG has just begun. We could see $610 again and that would provide a good entry.
Looking at some other tech names also. UUP and TLT are buys here.
Shorting USO here at $41 using a $42 stop and $37 target same rule applies above.
Also think that the downtrend for mighty GOOG has just begun. We could see $610 again and that would provide a good entry.
Looking at some other tech names also. UUP and TLT are buys here.
Levels
We are trading at the same level as 2006. The main difference between 2006 and now is, homes are worth 50% less and 10% unemployment compared to 0%. Something has got to give. Some of the banks, casinos, and large caps are nowhere near there highs but they may never be again. Do you see GE trading at $40 again with 10% unemployment?
Deep Thoughts
What do we have to look forward too. Financially speaking of course. Well the job numbers are about to come out. This is setting up for a buy the rumor sell the news. Since 1998 in january we have had negative returns on the $spx after the release of the jobs number.
The US is gonna have to raise rates soon. China just increase rates along with Korea. Also if you look the 30 rate for mortgages has been kreeping up. Even if the fed doesn't raise rates it will happen with out them.
I am not in the double dip camp but i am looking for a pull back. This could be a wrong thought but i do believe a 10% pull back is needed for a healthy market here. If we don't get it i will get stopped out and lose money for a 5th time. Thank god for daytrading.
The US is gonna have to raise rates soon. China just increase rates along with Korea. Also if you look the 30 rate for mortgages has been kreeping up. Even if the fed doesn't raise rates it will happen with out them.
I am not in the double dip camp but i am looking for a pull back. This could be a wrong thought but i do believe a 10% pull back is needed for a healthy market here. If we don't get it i will get stopped out and lose money for a 5th time. Thank god for daytrading.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Non Farm Payroll
Everyone is talking about the payroll numbers tommorrow. This trade is getting really crowded and a lot of people who are not here today will be here tommorrow. This could get real ugly fast.
Short
gonna clear all goog short here for a nice gain.
Still have short on the spy and own vxx and tlt
Still have short on the spy and own vxx and tlt
AAPL GOOG and DELL
When ever we have a lot of people competeing in one space it will hurt margins. The smart phone market is being invaded. I think this will help palm and nok and really put a hurting on RIMM. Unless they are bought by somebody i can see a $35 target.
SHLD
Well my gold short is working but my shld short is gonna go really bad. Gonna clear both of them for a net loss.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Senator Dodd
I really think he was forced to resign. That is my contrarion attitude. This could be the opening of a whole host of problems. I really think the US goverment has been propping up the stock market.
January 6th
Today is january 6th. Exactly 44 weeks from the low we put in on march. Then breaking down to the 8.6 day cycle on the daily charts puts us at today. I have decided to go short a little early and still have margin to short some of my favorites such as GOOG and QQQQ.
We will see if my cycle theory is correct.
We will see if my cycle theory is correct.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
CIEN
With money flowing into CIEN which is battered down tech stock. This will bode bad for aapl and rimm maybe goog
New home sales
So if i understand this correctly. We have a ton of goverment reasons to buy a house. Tax credits etc. The new home sales were down 16%. How could this be?
Christmas
I really believe that this rally is setting up and unbelievable shorting opportunity. Today could be the last up day and we could see a 15% correction. This would be a clear signal to get long.
Monday, January 4, 2010
TLT
Going long TLT on margin here at $89.67.
So currently 100% short spy and 25% long tlt. Have 125% invested on the short side.
So currently 100% short spy and 25% long tlt. Have 125% invested on the short side.
Volume
Please let me know f i am crazy but is volume a little low for the first day back for the new year. I expected a lot more volume. To me it reads like this, "Everybody is waiting for a pull back."
Sunday, January 3, 2010
fed and unemployment
The top two stories on cnbc right now are we may get a positive job number and the fed won't rule out rate hikes to pop assett bubbles. Could this be a buy the rumor sell the news? You could probable get long if we gap down on monday for a two day trade. Sell well before the jobs numbers come out.
The rumor is we have good jobs numbers and the news is that we are getting higher rates.
The rumor is we have good jobs numbers and the news is that we are getting higher rates.
Ready To Go
Been studying and setting up my office. I pray to god the internet provider doesn't go down tommorrow. I really believe the next two days will be critical.
For anyone who follows Jim Rodgers he says to get long food. If you look at the price of beef it is at a 40 year low. I was lucky enough to have major restaraunt owner come and stay with me in nicaragua. She informed me that their price of beef and pork is way lower than when they started their business. (She started and owns Woody's)
The locals here in nicaragua used to be able to sell a full grown bull for $1500-$2000 dollars now they fetch around $800. With our major suppliers china, india, latin america, and africa moving into industrilaization this will change the farmer into a tech or another type of worker. This means less food in the long run.
I am agressively getting into the cattle market.
For anyone who follows Jim Rodgers he says to get long food. If you look at the price of beef it is at a 40 year low. I was lucky enough to have major restaraunt owner come and stay with me in nicaragua. She informed me that their price of beef and pork is way lower than when they started their business. (She started and owns Woody's)
The locals here in nicaragua used to be able to sell a full grown bull for $1500-$2000 dollars now they fetch around $800. With our major suppliers china, india, latin america, and africa moving into industrilaization this will change the farmer into a tech or another type of worker. This means less food in the long run.
I am agressively getting into the cattle market.
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