MPEL

My core holding MPEL is surging today

EWY

I am long the February $60 puts for EWY,

I also shorted the SLV today at $29.90 and 30.16

SentimenTrader.com

Courtesy of Sentimen Trader: What an indicator above, i wish this site would post this indicator on a regular basis. The liquidity premium is the ratio of people who would rather hold the spy instead of the individual stocks (For liquidity purposes). You can see when this has been near the top of the range it has been a rather good indicator for picking tops in the market.

Silver

I am of the thought that Silver is a bad investment for 2011. I do believe gold will follow but i believe that silver has more downside risk. I am going to start shorting the SLV today. We are showing strength this morning and will open the first entry around $29.90

South Korea

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40858662

It looks as if the Bank will be raising interest rates to fight off inflation. When China did the first rate hike we had 8% downside. I have been looking at shorting the EWY lately and think i will put this position on today.

Facebook IPO

I believe that some funds will start freeing up cash to participate in the Facebook IPO which isn't even scheduled yet. It is coming they don't have a choice. This should pose a threat to large cap growth stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, and NFLX.

Netflix, GOOG, and AAPL

The big question is whether Google or Apple is going to buy Netflix or do it on there own. I believe Apple goes it alone and Google attempts to buy. This would be negative for Google who would end up being the loser.

Yes Google would ad to its ever growing empire ,but all in all would be a negative for the stock price. This streaming video is just getting started and there will be a lot of competition. If no one buys Netflix it sees under $100 by mid 2011.

Currently I am short Google.

Netflix

Is extremely oversold here and a bounce is do. I am closing my $200 march puts here and will look to reenter later.

Sun Times Article on Netflix and Sears

Sears introduces movie download service as Netflix rival

Sears said today it has launched a video download web site called Alphaline Entertainment that will let users download movies the day they are released on DVD or Blu-ray.
The site, alphaline.roxionow.com, runs on a platform run by licensee partner Sonic Solutions and its RoxioNow service. Sonic Solutions, based in Novato, Calif., concentrates on selling movies through retailers.
Separately, Sears said it will honor an unspecified number of gift cards that online shoppers obtained for 50 percent off because of a computer glitch Sunday night, the retailer said Tuesday. Sears canceled the erroneously discounted gift cards that had not yet been activated.
—Sandra Guy

Wow!

Just read that Sears is starting a moving download business

FXI

Gonna be looking at my FXI calls today for a loss. China has been going down a lot lately and it has a lot to do with the tightening and inflation controls.

Gonna close them on strength today.

CHK

Selling covered calls against my CHK position

F

I am selling covered calls against my F position.

NFLX and Comcast

I have been totally wired into the Netflix craze. I love netflix and believe their product kicks ass. Why doesn't comcast say this to all their users this," We are going to offer you unlimited On-Demand movies for an additional $7 dollars a month." This would create some competition for ole NFLX.

I believe it will happen sooner than later. This will create a mass exodus out of the stock and turn some contrary investors into overnight millionaires. Currently my 30 minute 10 day chart for Netflix is bearish. We have had a spike down on the CCI to -247.28, with the stock then attempting to rally. If we get a gap up on Monday I believe it could be an unbelievable shorting opportunity.

Disclosure: I own March $200 puts on NFLX as of close on thursday.

FXI

I am buying some FXI $42 calls for $1.40, We are sitting right on the 200 ema and a are oversold lets see if we can get a bounce.

EWZ

I am selling EWZ at $74.00, i am very nervous about being long anything right now.

One Trader Holds 80% of copper reserves

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034083436931412.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird


This has me thinking, is it a good time to short copper. Why would this person by almost all the worlds copper and store it. Copper is setting all time highs. Why?

GOOG

I have shorted 50 more shares at $603 today

EWZ

Getting long EWZ for a trade $73.50

RIMM

This guy is looking sickly. I have been long RIMM puts since last week. I aint selling them till RIMM sees $25. You don't need a lot of plays to make money in 2011.

AAPL

Selling AAPL

AAPL

Buying aapl for a trade

TLT

I am selling my TLT this morning at $92.26, i believe we will be able to get better prices later this year.

RIMM

I see some serious trouble for RIMM, we were trading near $62 yesterday after hours and we are under $60 this morning. I am gonna get short this one with some march $60 puts on early morning strength.

TLT

I had an order of TLT filled at $90.50. I am looking to get more long this fund as we approach $89. Also i have a sneaky suspicion that this fund needs to touch $86. At this point i have an alert to buy as many of the January 2012 $86 dollar calls as i can possibly afford.

BIDU

It would be nice to see BIDU rebound to the $105 area for a nice short entry.

TLT

I find it so funny that the top insiders buying yesterday was of pimco's bond funds. These guys were buying bonds like crazy yesterday. I am looking to get long TLT again.

Currently i am placing some orders around $90.5.

IR

I am opening a small short line on IR, there a/c product is inferior and after this tax credit expires for 15 seer equipment sales will fall off drastically.

Best Buy

Is getting taken out to the wood shed this morning. A little overdone will look to get long the stock after a couple of days for a least a bounce.

Technical Indicators

All point that a top was made today. I shorted a handful of stocks today around 11:ooam and closed them around 3:30. I am in full daytrading mode shorting early morning strength.

I think Google is in trouble. The insiders are selling it the technicals look horrid and some new anti-trust lawsuits are being thrown around. I am short GOOG since $590 and have an order to short more at $605.

Shorting Strength

I am in full day trading mode shorting early morning tops.

VXX

Selling for a loss

VXX

I have bought a small portion of VXX in after hours at $38.40

GOOG

I have shorted 50 shares of GOOG at $590

GOOG

Still have yet to short, looking now at the $585 to $605 level to reshort

Hedging

Currently i am long F, MPEL, and CHK. I also opened a short line on the VXX. On monday we should have a nice gap up. I am closing my VXX short line and opening april puts on all my long holdings.

MPEL will buy the april $6 puts

F the april $16 puts

CHK the april $22 puts

If we get a rally into year end i will sell covered calls on these positions to help finance the hedge.

I have been timid of shorting GOOG and i am waiting for this stock to get close to $580 then i will short in 50 share stock increments into $600.

The Banks

I am wondering why everyone is starting to wonder the rally we are having. Its the banks. They have stopped going down and are starting to head up. This is a huge factor and could keep us going into at least january.

Also very important is the extension of the Bush tax cuts. If these tax cuts expire we are serious trouble. Keep your finger on the sell button.

Bearish

We are officially in an extremely bearish enviroment. The world is coming to an end. I am looking at opening a large short position in VXX very soon. Even if i am wrong by a couple of days it will eventually correct to the low 20's.

Ford

I have just bought a small position in Ford during after hours for $16.2

Pull Back and Rally

Would be really nice to get a pull back with some heavy put buying to create an end of year rally.

I am still long mpel and CHK, looked at shorting goog and passed.

VXX

I am looking to play VXX puts on any vertical ascent

Google

Just like everything else on this gravity must be a forced reckoned with. Last night Larry Kudlow made a very important observation. Facebook is taking market share from Google. This has been my thesis for the past 6 months. With QE2, David Tepper, and everything else bullish i have managed to get stoped out on Google many of times. On Friday of last week i opened a large put position on GOOG and sold the same day.

I am now looking to reshort for an even larger position. I think $500 is in the cards before year end.

CHK

I have bought CHK in after hours at $21,88.

Weak Dollar

I am looking at companies that would NOT benefit from a weak dollar. One that comes to mind is AZO. They have to buy most of these parts from overseas. This would raise the costs and hurt over all sales. They do 90% of their business within the US.

Bullish

I have been a big bear through out this entire rally. I lost my shirt and my shorts. One theme I have banked on is MPEL. I have owned this stock since $3.35. Today the bid is at $6.63. We are about to report earnings and any weakness should be bought.

This could be the next LVS!

Insider Selling

Yesterday was the highest insider selling i have ever recorded in the past year. One particular equity had $1,000,000,000 of out flows. That's right $1 billion dollars.

Recap 11/1/10

I can't tell you how important the new high ratio is to the market. Today we had 18 new lows, bringing the 10 MA pointing down. We had 200 new highs. This means we have to to break through the 678 new highs before we can go higher. We set this date on 4/26/2010. Until these new highs can be broken i will be looking to short not get long.

Tommorrow I think the market will punish the weak shorts.

Keep watching MPEL.

MPEL

Watch MPEL this week i expect it to make a new high for the year this week. I belive they will destroy earnings. The are the best low debt casino operator in Maccau.

POMO Days

We have Nov 1st, 4th and 8th as the next pomo days.

Recap 10/29/10

We had less puts purchased than yesterday leaving the Equity only put call ratio at .55 with a higher VIX. This is a huge red flag! Be careful if you are long.

There were 11 new lows and 145 new highs bringing the ratio to .07. Chevron and V, look very weak to me. Also First Solar took a huge hit. It seems as if no one is hedgeing their bets.

Good Luck

RIMM

Watch out BELOW!

Asia Markets

The Asian markets have been down about 2% in the last three days while the US markets have been flat to slightly positive. I expect us to play a little catch up today on the downside.

Recap 10/28/2010

There was a big let down around 10:30. I guess the POMO operations weren't going as planned. Bill gross spoke publicly today on how the 30 year treasury will become extinct. Agreeing with him is like playing liars poker. Last time Bill Gross made this comment i was buying TLT under $90 a share. I bought TLT at $99.30 with a .3 stop and a $10 dollar profit exit today.

Today we had less puts purchased than the day before. Very strange. The vix is only sitting at 20 and we have all this excitement coming up over QE. Wouldn't everyone be hedging their bets! This is a giant game of life chess.

We had 14 new lows and 149 new highs today, lowering the ratio from yesterday. On April 26th 2010 we had 674 new highs. This is the highest ever recorded known to date. We have been flirting within 3 points of this the last couple of days and our new highs haven't been close. On October 25th 2010 we had 311, close to half.

How can this be when we are this close to a new high?

On Fast Money tonight i happened to see a an option broker reccommend shorting calls against the TLT. If i am thinking this trade through correctly this is extremely risky. Now selling covered calls if you owned the stock since $88 might be a good strategy ,but straight out shorting them?

Here Comes POMO

Watch out!

MPEL

I believe this one is gonna take off. They report on the 9th and i am putting a $7.36 price target on the stock.

Recap 10/27/10

Today we had 10,570,367 calls traded. Very close to the same amount as yesterday. We had some more puts to the tune of 6,738,838. About 500,000 more than yesterday. The VIX closed at 20.7.

Something very interesting happened today in that the Advance Decline ratio closed at 1.87. This is interesting because the market was showing so much strength. Every dip is being bought. There was 16 new lows meaning that the New Low MA has begun to flatten or even tick low. We had a put call ratio of .63.

Goldman Sachs had a bond offering today and i believe that a lot of the strength today fed off that. In addition, we have an anticipated POMO day tommorrow.

I am looking for weakness tommorrow to see if gets bought. Not gonna play it.

Today

We don't have POMO operations today less see if we can get a nice down day. We then have tommorrow, where the goverment will be buying and we can get long.

POMO

Wish i would have known about this earlier.

Recap 10/26/2010

Wow NFLX took off today with a negative MACD on the hourly, heavy insider selling again, and a technical negative divergence on the the daily chart. All it takes is one other company to step up to the plate and start offering this service. They wouldn't even have to buy Netflix; YouTube, Apple, or Microsoft could simply start doing what they are doing. If you are long this stock be very careful. I was dead wrong about BIDU last year and have stayed small with this one ,but i am watching this guy closely. Furthermore, if you listen to the conference call (which you can here http://ir.netflix.com/ ) they talk about the need to beef up networks to allow for streaming video. This could costs them millions and the need of a stock offering is a possibility.

Today we had:
10,685,000 calls traded compared to 9,434,528 yesterday
6,180,045 puts traded compared to 5,959,097 yesterday
leaving us with a .57 put call ratio, one thing that stood out to me today was a lower put call ratio and a higher VIX. The VIX closed at 20.23 compared to 19.86 yesterday. This means that investors are charging a premium for these puts. Also the call volume outweighed the past 4 trading sessions. We hadn't seen call buying like since 10/19/2010, then on the 10/20/2010 we opened down. Lets see if we gap down tomorrow?

Today was a positive session for the market. We were down big at the open and then we closed positive. We had only 126 new highs with 10 new lows, this tells me the market is gonna have trouble making new highs.

AAPL has yet to reclaim its pre earnings high of $319 or so. The insiders which have never sold their precious shares just began selling them. This is extremely bearish for the stock. If we break down below $305 i believe $290 is next.

FCX, which is a bell weather and great market indicator is also having a problem breaking through $100. A retracement of at least $85 is in the cards. I am watching the $93 dollar area for support and $98.50 as resistance.

Selling TLT Puts

i am selling some out of the money TLT puts here

AAPL and General Rants

There are rumors of a possible AAPL Sony take over. While this may just be rumor it is very interesting and bearsih for AAPL. In addition,the only company that has had almost no insider selling is AAPL. That all changed yesterday with 14,000,000 shares being sold by top execs. The top two sells were NFLX and AAPL.

We also boasted a nice .63 put call ratio yesterday with a nice size gap up. Which got almost got filled. Even though put volume was up so was call volume. Enough to warrant a gap down.

I wish i knew what would happen with the dollar after the G20. Wait, no i don't. I want to wait and see then fade the reaction!

My honest opinion is that the dollar needs to make new lows. The American consumer hasn't been pinched hard enough and inflation isn't out of control, yet. If you don't believe me ask Paul Volcker.

I always tell people it is easier to raise prices then let them go down. Once someone is used to paying a $1.00 for a Beer, Can Coke, ETC it very hard to lower that back 75 cents. Some people like to argue this point ,but what goes into making that coke or beer. A lot of people and resources. Companies have to allocate each percentage into making that product. Lowering the price is way more difficult than raising the price for these companies.

If you don't believe me look at a chart of Kellog (K). Sickly!

NFLX insiders

Typically the insiders have a good idea when a stock is overvalued. The old NFLX insiders took advantage of a good quarter and sold.

NFLX

There is a very interesting argument about NFLX. You can read all about it in pragcap.com . The picture above is worth a thousand words. Streaming video is the straw that broke the camels back.

Recap 10/21/10

On 10/21/10 there were 6,681,344 puts bought, on 10/20/2010 there was 7,372,409 puts bought, in addition on 10/19/2010 7,983,241 puts were bought. There were less calls being purchased also.

The VIX was 20.63, 19.79, and 19.27 respectively. Today was a very volatile day and we are at the top end of a range. Straight up for about a month the market has been with out even catching a breath. Net Flix has just said that the DVD market is partially saturated and that streaming video is the next growth area. Couldn't a small company like www.pandora.com start the same thing very easy. What about BIDU, GOOG, or AAPL, they will want a piece of this revenue also. Being an contriarion is very hard

Everything being equal the market is always right. Why is the VIX going down when volatility was so high today? Do investors not want a premium for their stock when selling these puts?

Puts

There was some puts being purchased but not enough. I would be a seller of calls on any strength tommorrow. I would suspect and true trend down tommorrow.

I am gonna sell some of my aapl calls tommorrow for a loss. My puts are out dated and i am gonna play aapl from the long side the next couple of weeks. Selling in the money covered calls on strength.

I sold my VXX yesterday as a day trade.

Still short sugar and getting hammerred.

AAPL in the mornin'

Looking at opening a short position for a quick scalp.

AAPL and VXX

I am going through each position and it looks like the upside calls on BIDU, AAPL, will be worthless. Looking at trade here, VXX in afterhours. There was a lot of pain inflicted in after hours and this will be worth more in the morning.

Still have the GOOG puts! paid for and profits taken. All the other positions were fully hedged.

Long VXX after hours

VXX

Clearing my covered calls on the VXX, also selling my puts and selling my stock holdings for VXX.

Earnings

I am playing aapl for earnings the same way I played goog.

I am buying the $320 november calls equal dollar amount to the january 2012 $250 put. So the upside and down side have equal weight. If AAPL blows out the numbers will sell the calls the next day.

We got BIDU reporting on 10/26/10, going to put the same trade on today. Buying the nov $105 calls and the jan 2012 $80 puts.

GOOG

They beat earning and i will sell my october calls at the open tommorrow. Will hold the puts, they are more than paid for and will not double down like i did the appl trade that turned into a bust.

VXX

I have sold the January 2012 $30 VXX call against my VXX position. If VXX gets to $30 i will happily get called out.

Weak Bond Auction

The goverment has been purchasing bonds. Today i believe is the first day treasuries were not bought. This could be a canary in the coal mine for no QE2.

Google

Playing Googles earnings today. Buying the October $550 calls and the November $540 puts. Could make money on both sides of the trade!

Call Buying

Today was an extreme for call buying. I am looking to close my VXX puts tommorrow.

We had 800,000 more calls bought in the last 30 minutes compared to yesterdays last 30 minutes. Really heavy call buying!!

Shorting some more SGG

I am shorting another small portion of SGG at $80.40

Complacency

This move should be faded. I am sitting on my hands and waiting

VIX

I am sure everyone is looking at this. This comes the very day i bought protection. The plan is to buy the puts hold the stock. Then when the vix spikes sell covered calls to help finance the puts. The calls will be near month out of the money calls.

This trade could be profitable on the upside and the downside. May even purchase more VXX puts on any spike.

VXX

i am buying protection on my VXX with the $15 march 2012 puts. If we get a spike in the $vix i can either sell VXX or sell covered calls.

SGG

This ETF is up 11% in 2 days? From what i have read sugar isn't going anywhere.

Insider Buy Sell Ratio

Below is the data from what the insiders were doing yesterdays. Some of the major sales went to GOOG, AZO, and ORCL. Now if the insiders are dumping these companies why would one want to invest long term going against the people that work there. Yesterday was not a record for insider outflows but was above the $50million 20MA. Also buys yesterday were below the 20MA.


10/7/2008
$23,876,621.00 Total $Buys
$280,656,623.00 Total $Sell
0.085074141

Yesterday i was tested a little on my option tracking. That is great because we could have been watching totally different data. Below is yesterdays data for EQUITY only on the CBOE.


10/7/2010 (This is neutral in my book)
9,341,983.00 Call
6,856,075.00 Puts
0.733899323 Ratio

Here is the 6th

10/6/2010
10,820,823.00 Calls
5,836,047.00 Puts
0.539334855 Ratio

Here is the 5th

10/5/2010
10,161,416.00 Call
6,006,272.00 Puts
0.591086124 Ratio

Tracking this is important because major players or holders will buy puts for protection or sell calls when overvalued.

The Benefit of Good number tommorrow

If we get good number tomorrow how can the fed QE more? That is exactly what lead to the sell off in the precious metal today. The dollar would then benefit A LOT. Which in turn is bad for most equities. I think there is a high probability we sell off hard tomorrow after the number.

SGG

Buying some december puts on this one. Also shorting another group of shares.

Sugar has been moving in violent gaps and is prone to go down in dollar strength.

Priced in Part 2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39548222

Once again i think buying gold here is late to the party and QE2 is priced in. QE3 is not an option, the rhetoric is changing and the risk reward is going short.

Priced In.

Is QE11 priced into the current price of Gold. I strongly believe so.

Bull case for Gold:
Endless printing of currencies
Inlfation hedge
Countries buying gold at a record clip
Not everyone owns gold

Bear Case:
If QE11 is priced how can the bulls possibly look at QE111
The dollar is stretched very hard on the down side and any correction could hurt Gold
The EURO is extremely stretched on the upside and is due for a correction, which in turn would hurt gold and help the Dollar

Currently i have been shorting silver and sugar. I am down on my Silver short and i have been waiting to add to the position but will probably hold on that. I believe SGG has a better risk return than SLV.

Call Buying

I keep track of equity call buying on the CBOE and today was extreme. We ended the day with a .58 equity only put call ratio.

Currently i am going out on margin to buy BGZ. I went into margin because i was short a significant amount of SLV. So currently i am 120% short and feeling very ancy. Lets see what happens would love to free up some cash.

Purchasing BGZ at $11.78 in after hours

Chevron Buy Back

This is a positive for the market. Any Buy Backs eat up supply.


These major gap ups and gap downs and 1-3% move on an intraday basis is a defining moment for a bear market.

A Bear Omen?

http://bearmarketnews.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/wall-street-sequel-is-an-omen-of-u-s-collapse/

Today

Watching CNBC is great. This morning a gentleman who is extremely successful and has been for 15 years said no matter what the stock market is going up. Basically the economy will get better or the fed will print money until it gets better. The market was up big today. A mutual fund monday could be on the table. If we get a gap up i will short around 10:00am to fade the move. I will also buy more UUP and look at the january 2012 20 calls.

I am also looking CAT and AAPL a little closer. These are small positions for me i have been shorting in 25 share lots. My largest position is SLV short, VXX long, FCX short, and PF changs puts.

Take a look at SGG weekly chart. I am very tempted to open a large short position.

More Supply

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39351472

This will add more supply to the market.

I just finished watching Wall Street 2. One thing i noticed was the importance placed on the economy. I personally think the story sucked ,but the way the movie depicted the financial crisis was very interesting.

Everybody is in!

It sure feels like everyone is in. I am 100% short and looking to go on margin. Will wait until monday.

GM

A report saying that they will be pricing an IPO at the low end of the spectrum to attract retail investors. This is bearish.

The Dollar Again

It looks to have held support and should be a pivotal turning point for the day. There is a lot of economic news coming in today.

GOLD

Man there is a lot of euphoria around gold. I can't help but wonder if i went with a 1 ounce gold coin to buy stuff would it be accepted as currency. Richard Russell, Jim Rogers, and others claim that this should be looked at as a bullish signal. Currently i don't know. This commodity is in an uptrend and i am starting to nibble short with DZZ.

QE

I think a lot of people are getting the fed wrong here. There was no more talk of quanitative easing. The fed is gonna keep buying treasurys and keep interest rates low. This could be the best opportunity to short gold. I am currently short silver.

$$

Looking to get long the Dollar. Will be buying on any weakness tommorrow. Currently i am 100% sh0rt select stocks and long some puts. Will looking at long dated uup calls

Barry Ritholtz and Capn

The bull case:

-M&A: It was fucking heavy today, did you see appl and goog. Short covering out the ass. Everybody was buying everybody.

-Cash buybacks, it sure seemed to me that every ompany thought thier company was cheap today. Sure thing i want 5 billion shares of xyz after it is up 10%. Cash buy backs take time and isn't a timing tool. Cash buy backs are on in full force and eat up supply.

-KOL broke out today

-Spy broke out today

-GDX made a marginal high

-GLD hitting all time highs

-Silver showing strength



The bear case:

-insider selling at an all time high. Really high i might add.

-GDX didn't make a new high

-Bonds are showing unusal strength

- Unemployment is extremely elevated

-Pretty much all economic indicators point to a double dip. CCI, LCRI, ***** etc

-Dollar is yet to break down

-I sure am hearing about a lot of IPO's in china. Do the chinese think it is a good time to raise capital. Fuck?


If you have been follwoing me lately you are way down. I sure am, the technicals look horrid and i am shooting my last bit of bullets on the short side. The one thing i am sure of is this. If you invested $100,000 in CAT right now you would have $60,000 in march 2011.

Lets all spend are money at PF Changs tommorrow.

100% short

I am 100% short as of right now. I have added to GOOG and AAPL. It has been very ugly the past week and i feel like a pull back is inevitable. The call buying is extreme right now.

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Sugar

If we are in such an inflationary enviroment then why is sugar selling off so hard today. Also why are bonds showing such strength?

GOOG

Reshorting GOOG at $497.5

CAT

Another small portion of CAT short at $73.40

Doug Kass

I guess he was about to jump up and down and short.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39232968

FCX and AAPL

X united states steel missed and was downgraded by Goldman sachs. How can the equites almost shoot straight to the moon and these steel companies be missing. This cannot last.

I have more orders to short FCX but adding here $83.10

Also shorting more AAPL at $276.50

Sticking with the Plan

You see the action in PF changs! Wow what a pop.

I am sticking with my plan. AAPL, GDX, VXX, FCX are all in the dog house. Tops take time, insider selling is at an all time high bonds are showing unusual strength. We are in era of stagflation or deflation. The everything needs to deflate so people can pay to eat and live. Equities will suffer!

All of the steel makers are missing Fed ex missed and that is more important the jobless claims. The current portfolio is about 70% short. I am looking to go 150% short (margin) by the monday if we get a large gap up. If we crash from here (i don't think will happen) then i will simply take profits.

University of Pheonix

My good friend works for the above school and he agrees with the article below.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39194343

Short em! I say.

AA and NUE

If these guys are missing it is all overbought. I can't believe we don't have what his name from seabreeze partners jumping up and down on cnbc. I know why. We don't have cnbc here in the jungle. I think the fine gent is Doug Kass.

The Yen

The yen has been seen as a safe haven. A place where your money will gain value in an inflationary enviroment. The japanese have interviened in the currency markets trying to lower the value of the yen helping exports. This could have people flock to the dollar or gold. Gold just hit a new all time high and this currency intervention is a good reason for it.

I would not short TLT here. I am gonna sell my TBT here and close my covered calls and my puts. It was an good trade and i think we need to wait and see what happens in bonds for a nice NEW entry.

YCS

Buying some YCS at $17.51 if the goverment says they will sell it then sell it.

Mutual Funds All in!

http://pragcap.com/mutual-funds-are-all-in

SLV

Lucky enough to short some more SLV this morning at $19.88. Currently my net worth is 60% short the market. Mostly through precious metals and miners. CAT, PFCB, AND AAPL are other short holdings

FCX

Shorting FCX at $81.64

CAT

I am short more CAT at $71.98

50%

The entire portfolio consist of 50% short as of today. A little timid to get much larger than this, although most of my short exposure is in precious metals and miners who have been not able to break to new highs. Most of my GDX and SLV closed green.

PF Changs

Why is this upscale chinese eatery hitting 52 week highs? Buying the oct $50 puts for $3.60

TBT

Buying $34 september puts for my TBT holdings and selling TBT calls covered. So basically selling the Calls to purchase the puts.

CAT

Shorting more CAT at $71.00

AAPL

Shorting aapl at $266

Getting Short

I am about 25% net short as of now. I really like the how the miners have been unable to make new highs. I am gonna look for this trend to break before adding to my short position. I feel like GDX could make a new nominal high for the year.

Going to sell september TBT calls if we have major strength today for TBT. Looking at the $33 dollar september calls

sold aapl calls

I sold my aapl 260 calls for a nice gain. Still long the aapl $250 october puts. Adding to the position with half the gain from the calls.

Short CAT

shorting cat at $69.50 looking for $60 quick

AAPL

Will more than likely sell my AAPL Sept $260 call on tuesday if we gap up. Which i really hope we do.

This trade at least paid for the AAPL $250 oct put. So if we get any downside from here until oct opex the entire trade should pay nicely. So a 100% gain and zero loss is on the table for a possibilty. Who wouldn't play that game.

VXX

I am placing a ladder of orders to purchase VXX. Buying some here at $20.06 placing a profit exit at $30.00. We have moved 6% in two days, this market is pretty stretched short term. Betting against the herd!

Currently have orders at $19.75, $19.25, $18.75, $18.00; The share amount increases on the way down and so does the profit exit.

GLD, GDX, SLV (AAPL)

I am purchasing a small amount of the october out of the money puts for GLD, GDX, and SLV. Hedging against my TBT long.

Playing a straddle on AAPL with sept 260 calls and the october 250 puts

I am still bearish on TLT and TBT is a longer term play. May purchase puts on this when TBT moves a large amount.

USL

Will start building a position in USL on any weakness. Also on any extreme weakness on USO will buy long dated calls. For example if USO is to reach below 29 will buy the $28 jan 2011 calls.

USL is the long dated or 12 month futures fund for crude oil.

Closing Shorts

Closing all my short positions all cash except a small portion of TBT long

TBT

Hedging my first TBT purchase with some TBT september 32 puts

Flush

There needs to be a flush before i start to get long

Facebook

This was an interesting article that reinforces my idea that Google is doomed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38776145

AAPL

Clearing half of aapl for $10 dollars in profit.

Clearing 25% of CAT for $3.00 profit

Clearing half of MS for $1.5 profit

TBT

I bought a small portion of TBT at $31.50 i have placed a ladder of orders to $29, and an alert to purchase the 2012 $30 calls if TBT hits $28 dollars a share.

DZZ

Buying another small portion of DZZ

TBT

Starting to look at TBT again will keep you posted. For now if TLT hits $110 i will make a purchase of TBT

Lotto Tickets

Purchasing 10 GLD august $115 puts for .16 each. If we get a run in gold could have some people running to the exits on this one. Sleep tight gold bulls!

DZZ

Shorting some Gold this morning with the ETF DZZ, been waiting patiently and will add to the position on any weakness

Job Numbers

Looking to fade the job numbers today, meaning i expect a surge higher after the number is released. This could provide an opportunity to get more short. If that doesn't happen i will stick with my current positions.

Short select stocks and long the Dollar

CACC

Placing orders to short the above stock at $58, $58.5, and $59 dollars. Doing 100 share increments and looking for a crash in the stock. There has been heavy insider selling.

Staying Short

My plan is to short my selected stocks until the SP500 makes a temporary break of 1000. I will then cover GS, CAT, AAPL, and MS

I am currently long the dollar through UUP will keep purchasing whenever UUP gets close or breaks through 23.

UUP

Buying UUP and far out 2011 calls in the money strike.

The Dollar

Looking to buy the Dollar. ETF funds have become more and more disliked. The social mood is not right for them. The have become unusually depressed. This has made me more likely to buy them at these depressed levels. Buying UUP 2012 january 23 dollars and 22 calls on any weakness. Will most likely purchase most of them after the jobs number. There is no way to predict where the market trades short term. This makes it extremely difficult to time things to an exact point. Maybe the jobs number creates an extreme short term.

GS, CAT, AAPL, and MS

Shorting all of the above stocks in equal share amounts. 100-200 shares depending on the size.

Steve Kaplan

Steve i copied you, sorry but damnit your are smart:

The next decade will be challenging for most investors due to sharp fluctuations in both directions for nearly all assets, but the frequent extremes should make it easier for those who are paying attention to take advantage of the most glaring mispricings. There will be at least two compelling buying opportunities for equities, the first one in late 2011 and 2012 when commodity-share and emerging-market funds will be among the best choices, and the second one near the end of the decade when some as-yet-unknown sectors will be ideal for purchase. There will be some amazing lows for funds like TLT and EDV in the final years of the decade, which could produce triple-digit gains. While you should be eager to trade the most exaggerated extremes, you should be sufficiently disciplined not to participate at all other times. The initial surprise impact of rising mortgage rates in 2012-2013 will probably be negative almost everywhere, even in the most undervalued regions. Do not buy real estate in any given neighborhood until soaring mortgage rates a few years from now no longer have a negative impact on housing prices in that neighborhood. For example, if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises from 9% to 11% while housing prices remain approximately unchanged, then this is probably an ideal time to jump in.

Sorry steve please don't kick me off the service

That being said

Read this guys blog. I callhim Capn. http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/ his name is Tsashy Mishal.

He is the man!!!!

Lucky Guy

I am so lucky. I have great parents and a sexy wife. I live in nicaragua and currently can't surf because i tore my rotater cup. Shoulder.

I have been over trading pretty damn hard. I am trying to get rich quick. This doesn't happen. I have 1000 shares of aapl short at $257 i think. Gonna clear it tommorrow and spend some great time with my parents.

Sorry about everything i have done bad. Surfing or having pain sucks. Adios.

Reading

This is something that is very important. When you teach someone to read you open many doors for them. Way better than fixing a damn road for property sales.

Facebook

Keep kicking Googles ass. Fuck um. Make them pay 2 bill for it

AAPL

Not impressed with apples numbers. Also goog are you guys really so smart to buy mafia wars and farmville. Idiots.

Goog

shorting some more here. Selling some BGZ for a gain

Farmville and Mafia wars

Give me a freaking break

Euro

I am moving everything back into dollars. I am also gonna short the euro

Short GOOG

Just got short at $468

Call Buying

There is a ton of call buying

Goog

There is some news on this. Everythink the news is good for google. Reminds me of a large merger in the aol/time warner bullshit. See ya $180

BGZ

I will be purchasing pretty large amounts of this ETF shortly maybe tommorrow.

Short AAPL

I am opening a small AAPL short position.

Selling Everything

I am closing all my positions and going to 100% cash. Will look to get long again on a break of 1000 on the sp500. I know this sounds radical but i have had a pretty good streak other than UNG. Over and out for now.

GLD

Selling it here

TBT

Running from TBT here selling it hard

Gap Fill

That looked like a classic gap fill to me. Getting long the spy at $106.1

SPWRA

Getting long SPWRA at $13.60

GLD

Getting long some GLD here at $116.7

BGZ

Going to hedge my longs on the way up with small Purchases of BGZ. Sort of like running a long short fund. Still i feel that during the summer months the market can move in wild swing and being totally long is not an option.

The solar funds have been on fire. Yesterday i picked up some ENER for a day trade and it flew. Will be looking at spwra and fslr to day trade today.

Also looking at selling TLT puts naked to hedge my TBT position.

TBT

Now i have over 600 shares of tbt with a costs of $36.10. putting my stop at $35 profit exit of $40.

The solars are flying today TAN is a star

TBT

Buying some more TBT premarket at $35.27

Market Bottom

A lot of people are saying that the market hit a bottom today. That makes me think we go lower.

BAC Short

Clearing all BAC short

TBT

Still Holding TBT had a order filled yesterday at $35.00. This brings my costs on this trade to about $36.75.

TAN

Buying some more TAN here at $6.55, will simply buy more if we go down.

BAC

Clearing 25% of my BAC short here premarket at $15.00. The first entry was $16.02.

TBT

Buying a little more this morning at $36.45

Call Buying

A lot of call buying this morning.

USL

Buying USL instead of UCO or USO. Using a ladder of orders so this is my first entry buying more on the way down.

TBT

Buying more TBT

ESLR

A small order for evergreen solar was filled yesterday at .82. This was a great company to deal with when doing solar work. I have been on many of their conference calls and one of the major concerns was debt.

Home Market

It has been very hard for me to find anyone who is bullish on housing. Everyone believes that we are in a totally lost market and buying real estate here is a bad idea. Everyone has shitty credit to much debt. No renters can pay rent. No business can be opening in a such bad market. Commercial real estate is dead!


Dude. I mean dude, if i could i would be buying real estate.

TBT

Testing the waters at $38 on TBT. Also i am still short BAC from $16.02.

TAN

Have a lot of orders to purchase TAN below $6 also

AAPL

I have orders to short AAPL at $300, $310, and $320

For GOOG i have $495,$505, and $510.

These may never get reached but we saw some put buying yesterday finnally and who knows what the fed may do. I have been buying more and more of UNG and SD. Looking very close at TBT.

Overall i think there are some scared shorts out there.

Shorting AAPL and GOOG

Will be opening short positions on these stocks and will short more shares as they go up.

Facebook is the nail in the coffin for google. Keep in mind that GOOG has the highest percentage of insider selling than any other stock.

Lower Flash Crash

I think we see a lower low tommorrow style flash crash.

Unique Opportunity

I think the market has presented itself a nice opportunity for the short term trader. Bonds lower, market lower, dollar lower, and nat gas higher.

TLT

TLT has now formed a lower high. If this continues it could bode well for TBT

ESLR

I have some orders to get Evergreen solar at .77 and .80.

BAC

Gonna short some BAC premarket at $16.02

Long UNG and SD, plus market outlook

I am long ung and sd in retirement accounts. Both of these trades are tied very closely to natural gas. The social mood for nat gas is heavy and the actual price of the product is so low that something is going to happen. I believe a slow bull market similiar to gold for the next six months. Then a vicous spike upwards.


The market, i believe the unthinkable is about to happen. The market is going to crash along with the bond market. It will be the best time to purchase US bonds ever with yields reaching 10%. Gold and miners will benefit.

Adios

UNG

buying the jan 2012 $8 dollar call options for $2.40

a lot of puts

Lots of puts being bought this morning

all righty

getting long tbt at $39.3

Short the Dollar

I am currently short the dollar and long nat gas. I have closed aapl short and i am closing gs long.

Currently i am not looking at shorting the market but have really long buy orders for TAN, MPEL, SD, UNG, and GDXJ.

Closing AAPL

Closing my aapl short position. I was a die hard believer that the US consumer was done. I have had a lot of travelers come and stay at my hotel. The US consumer has a cane not crutches. AAPL see you at $310.00, the US loves you!!! ( And the whole damn planet)

Still long GS ,but wondering if the social mood is right for the banks.

Damn

Those 12cent lotto tickets are profitable. Wouldn't want to be short the market here.

TBT

I have done very little research on why TBT didn't go up very much today. This is one intra day trade i am trying tommorrow. If TBT for any reason gaps down tommorrow i will buy it at 10:oo-10:30 est. If it doesn't happen i am going to leave the trade.

One very important thing is to get the social mood right. Oil is bad right now ,but a lot of people know that we don't have a lot of it. US bonds, we have a lot of them outstanding and we have to issue a lot more to finance our future. I don't want to own bonds anymore. I believe the trade is done.

A must read

http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/

Bonds

I believe that US bonds could hold there ground if not stay around the $96 to $97 level. I haven't started studying how TBT trades but this could be bad for it. I am selling all of my TBT on this news and raising some cash again.

NAT GAS and SD

I am extremely bullish on nat gas for the next 6 months. I believe the social mood is right here and will be adding to UNG and SD on any pullbacks. There will be a time when oil retreats and nat gas advances.

Probably in the next 6 months to a year will provide a unique opportunity to own oil. For now the social mood is terrible for oil and buying alt energy companies and nat gas is a safer play.

selling OIL

Selling my UCO and USO positions in all of my accounts

aapl

shorting aapl today at $250.

GS

buying goldman sacks gs at $135 and buying the june 140 calls

Selling some FAS

Selling some FAS for a loss here

OIL

Did you know that Bahran has no oil left? The easy good oil is almost gone. In addition, we are now spewing oil into the gulf. Maybe the stop the spill or stopped the spill who knows. The one thing that is certain is this. We are going to have more goverment intervention and less oil. This is certain for higher prices.

UNG is an etf for natural gas. Anytime it is down like this morning i will be looking to buy a little.

I have made some early moves and have been patient. I ended having most of my limit orders for uco and uso made on friday. It ended up buying almost at the low for the day. If oil goes lower will keep building a position and then buying some leaps for 2012.

uco

getting long uco 15% of the portfolio. looking to get long ung on any pull back also. If we have a flash crash today will get super long uco, tan, mpel, and ung

UUP puts

buying the june 25 uup put for .12 cents

getting long more spy

getting long a little more spy. Still have around 80% cash in case another flash crash occurs

HAL

Buying some HAL. I believe these oil service companies will do well in a high oil price enviroment with more goverment regulation.

EURO

I am looking to be a buyer of the EURO. This could be the next reserve currency. I don't see it going anywhere. Slowly i have been changing my bank deposits to this currency also. Buying EUROS with Dollars.

GS and BP

Selling both positions this morning

selling a little TBT

selling 25% of tbt here

selling spy calls early

selling the spy calls for a nice gain. sorry about selling them early but they can expire worthless.

Oil is spewing into the gulf more regulation more rules=less oil higher prices. This is what we are in for.

HAL, BP, XOM, and NOV

Purchasing a basket here and doing equal dollar amounts for the trade. All these guys have been hammered and don't know which one will shine the best when or if we turn. alocating a very small portion to this.

SPY Calls

looking to sell the spy calls today at $4.00 each.

TBT

If we get a gap up tommorrow for TBT i will sell another 25% of this holding. TLT went ex dividend today.

Ugly day for markets was buyer of SD again today. I now have about 1000 shares and will buy more as it goes down.

FAS

A little more FAS at $22.55. Looking at the $19.00 area for an uncle point or stop

SPY CALLS

buying $107 strike june calls in after hours

gottem at $3.29

GS

Buying a small position of GS at $143.4

FAS

Purchasing a little bit more FAS this morning i have about 6% of my account into this trade and will buy more if we go lower this morning. If we do get some frantic selling i will be a buyer of TBT, GDXJ, TAN, USO, and MPEL.

Adios

FAS

Putting 5% of my net worth into FAS. The banks have tons of cash and have been sold hard long and first. An intraday reversal for today is imminent.

Deflation to Hyperinflation

I think we are starting to see a momentum shift from deflation to inflation. Last week could have been the last time to buy oil under $70 dollars again. Don't know if that is right or not but we will see. Yesterday i told my wife that when we are 60 we will be talking about the oil purchase we made when it was at $67 dollars a barrel. $250-$500 oil is not out of the question. Oil is used in a lot of stuff. If you want more info please search peak crude theory, by Jeff Ruben.

I think the TLT could hit $87 very quick. I have orders at $88, $87, and $86. When TLT hits this area i will sell my TBT.

USO is a longer term play. Someone was asking me the other day for a longer term play and this is it. Do not play options with this because timing must be correct for this to happen.

I sold some spy puts on time and spy calls to early. If i get called out of spy it won't be a bad thing. I collected the premium for the option and own the stock.

Nicaragua has been raining cats and dogs lately. They are out of a drought and the bull market for natural gas is just starting. I have a small position in UNG and SD.

Selling Spy Calls

Selling covered calls against spy

Raising Cash

Selling equal amounts of TBT and USO

GLD and the market

I am turning into a huge gold bull and i think there will be a awesome buying opportunity soon. I am holding a very small uso, spy and tbt position. Looking at selling some spy puts very soon.

Auction

They are selling treasuries today and bonds are trading up this morning. I wouldn't want to be long bonds after this.

SPY and TBT

These are two of my small positions that i am a little red in and starting to wonder if short treasuries and going long the spy was a good idea. Purchasing a little more TBT today and buying a little more spy. May do a large spy trade today intraday, think we could see some weakness and a short term swap.

BIDU

Selling BIDU at $70.47 this morning. I am feeling very bearish today even though we are extremely over sold. Looking very close at TAN. This is a fund of solar shares that are so beat down.

Staying Put

Been holding very small positions here and still long but mostly cash.

If we gap up on monday will dump BIDU

TBT

Buying some more TBT

BIDU

Buying BIDU here at $68.08

TLT

If i still had my large TLT position i would be selling covered calls on it today

UNG and spy

Buying some ung here at $7.15 have orders to buy down to $5.50

Bought more spy on the open for $109.2

Euro and Oil

I think the euro is done going down short term. And oil is a screaming buy here. You may never be able to buy oil this cheap again.

SPY

Getting long the spy here at $111.75 will purchase more around the $110, $109.5 area, if we even get close to that.

TBT

Purchasing the may 22 $40 calls

Small Sizes

I have been getting long here USO, TBT, and GDXJ on this trip down. Been buying real small sizes. USO i have been purchasing in 20 share increments

More TBT

Bonds look like a great short here. Buying some more TBT

Selling USO Puts

Selling the $33 dollar may 22nd put for USO at .5

TBT

Buying a little bit of TBT here. Looking for $45

Gamblin

Looking at a pure spec play for the week. The USO may 22nd 35 calls for .38.

Small Size USO

Building a small position in USO

Large Cash Position

Currently i have less than 15% invested in the market. I am looking to reload on TLT below $88.00. This market could make new highs. All in all i have a large cash position and i am looking to buy weakness in commodities and bonds. Also looking to create a large oil position. I am crude oil BULL longterm.

BIDU

Selling my BIDU here this morning at $80.40. Will rebuy on any weakness short term.

BIDU

Looking to get long BIDU after the 4 for 1 stock split. Any weakness will swing some shares. Probably a 200 lot because of the volatility.

GLD Calls

Gonna sell the GLD calls on the open for a nice gain.

Take a look at AUY and GDX. The miners are starting to run.

Why i closed my shorts

Simple, The vix closed at 41. Who in thier right mind would stay short with so many puts being bought. When all of those puts are bough people are not inclined to sell. They can hold the position knowing that they have insurance.

I made a fraking boatload on those jan 2011 TLT calls. I had 20 of them at $3.oo bucks and sold them at $7.50. Yeah boy. Now if i can make my BIDU money back that would be freaking awesome.

Watching asia right now and looking to short intra day extremes for daytrades. Almost all cash.

closing all shorts

closing all short positions here. including TLT

BGZ

Adding to BGZ at $15.60

MT and AMZN

Closing MT short and AMZN short

GLD

Purchasing some June GLD calls the june $118 for about $2.05 only 5 with this lot. Gold could hit $1300 with this strength

BGZ

Stop at 15.3

BGZ

Bringing stop to $15.02

YHOO

dumping yhoo for a loss

BGZ

Picking up some BGZ at $14.9

USO

Building a small position in USO

Pit Bull

I bet ole Buzzy is laughing his ass off. This was very similar to what happened in his book.

We are going to see some kind of distribution on rallies. I feel very strongly that shorting rallies could be good intraday trades. I am going to day trade a lot in the next couple of days.

Fund Flows

There are going to be a lot of ordinary people wanting to get out of the market pretty soon. This will create some very good buying opportunities. Be patient and don't shoot all of your bullets right away. I am looking to invest heavily in some commoditie funds here very shortly.

AUY

Buying yamana gold on this dip

Sand Ridge

Buying SD at $6.87

FPL

I own a little FPL since it was at $48. I bought more at $47.50 about 3 months ago. Today it is showing strength. Going to sell calls against the position. Selling 3 of the may 50's for $2.15 each. If i get called out it is ok. Reloading FPL at $45 could happen in the next 6 months

TLT calls

Selling some more TLT may $91 calls for $4.00. Could get called out of my TLT holding which is fine. Collected the dividend and want the cash for an upcoming extreme event.

FXE

Going to purchase the EURO here with FXE. Using a $2.00 dollar stop on 50 shares

VXX

Selling some of my VXX here for a small loss

TLT

Sold the TLT calls at $3.40

TLT

Going to sell some calls against my TLT position. Will wait and see if TLT has strength this morning. Looking at the May $91 calls. Would like to sell 10 of them at $3.30.

BIDU

I have an order to short more shares of bidu at $750.00. It is another small lot of 25 shares. Also an order to short more GOOG at $550.00

Smaller Sizes

Been trading smaller lots lately and i have been having success. BIDU i am bringing my stop to break even and a profit exit of $610

If YAHOO hits $12 i am out. I really think longer term YAHOO will benefit.

GOOG

I lowered my short exposure on goog today and cleared it at $535. Sorry about the late post but you can clear it even lower in after hours right now.

Yhoo and Bidu

Shorting 25 shares of BIDU at $643 and going long YHOO at $17.57.

Long YHOO at $17.57 300 shares

Short BIDU at $643.00 25 shares

Stop

Bringing my stop to break even on google.

Have entry to short more shares at $550.00

GOOG

Shorting my first portion of GOOG here at $554.00. Looking at shorting 200 shares and this is a 25 share lot. Will short more of goog as it goes up.

Google and Facebook

Google missed earnings and they will continue to do so. Facebook is absolutley destroying this company. They will take a huge prtion of googles business and so will other competitors. I am looking to open a huge short position on goog very soon.

Been surfing a lot. Also have been fixing a lot of a/c's. I am an a/c man by trade but dabble is quite a bit. It is a good idea to have mutliple forms of income.

VXX

Adding to VXX at $19.50

Shorting

Will look at shorting GOOG today for a day trade. The insider selling is extreme in this one. Any push up i will short.

good retail numbers

The retail numbers were great and aapl is trading down. Opening a small short position amzn.

TLT

I have some orders in for $88.70 and $88.50. The .30 cent dividend gets paid at the end of this month.

I think that yesterdays market action was extremely odd. When i looked at the market in the morning, bonds were down, gold was down, dollar up, and market down. I couldn't make a whole lot out of it. Technically the market looks weak but i have been saying that for 6 months. Tops are way harder than bottoms.

Also i think government is about to raise interest rates.

I am not living in the united states right now and have little impact from media coverage. It has been nice not hearing the idiots on cnbc anymore.

The strong dollar does matter and we are entering an era of stagflation. Just make sure you can stay in the game long enough to purchase GDX, USO, GLD, and SLV. When the dollar starts topping these funds could triple or double in value.

China

Isn't google pulling out of china bad for baidu. This simply means that google can capture the market share outside of china. This couldn't be good news for BIDU.

Gold and Crude Lead the way

Intraday gold and crude lead the way. The dollar has been firming and unless we get a sell off in the dollar they(gold and crude) are limited on the upside.

Huge Disconnect

There is a huge disconnect between Gold and the Market today. The market should be going up because we can't print our way out of this mess. Then the market should go up with gold leading the way. This isn't happening and i think it is very interesting.

VXX

Selling more TLT and buying VXX

UNG

Building a small position in UNG Purchased at $7.42 in premarket. Will purchase more on the trip down.

Selling my small FPL position to finance the trade.

Gold and Oil

Look as if they are making a exhaustion gap high. This is very bearish.

Selling More TLT

Selling more TLT and purchasing more VXX

Negative Divergence

Huge negative divergence intra day

Sell

Selling some of my TLT calls to buy VXX at $23.09

Bonds

I like the action in bonds today.

My TLT calls are super green.

Stock Replacement

Selling uup puts here. Will gladly buy uup if it gets put to me. Selling a little TLT to finance the trade. The march 24 at .56.

3-11-10

The fact the market was up a certain percentage and that some of my options increased in value is a contrary indicator. Lets see if we can get to 10,070. That would bring the rest of indices down less. This is because the dow didn't increase as much on the way up. I am gonna clear anywhere near this number.

Truggin along

It feels as if the market is tired. We will see.

Next Friday

We have expiration next friday and mergers have been crazy. The world is buying dollars. It (the dollar) has been holding support very well. Oil and Gold looked weak to me. Bonds and comodities had a bearish day in my opinion.



We have divergence number one. This is a non confirmation in dow theory. Transports new high and dow no new high.



We also have divergence number two. Which is more of a sentiment divergence. This was the small speculator index. They are extremely bearish. When small speculators have been bearish this has been bullish for the market.



Also these notes:



The put call ratio for individual stocks was very low. When equity calls are being bought it isn't nescessary bearish. It could mean some stocks need a parabolic move to puke up some shorts and create buyers.



The put call ratio was very high for the indices. This means that big money managers are hedging thier long positions. Or the smart money is buying puts on the market as a whole.



It also very hard for me to cut my shorts at such move. I would rather wait out the storm unless we close above 10,725.

BAC

This the type of stuff that really can piss off a in debt customer. This information is bearish long term for Bank of America. Their customer service sucks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-ends-apf-1552456599.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Catalyst

What is gonna be the catalyst to push us lower? There has been heavy call buying today and the vix is extremely low. Gold and Oil couldn't make new highs and looked very weak. The weird thing is that the transports, nasdaq, and russel are breaking out to new highs. Typically this is a bullish sign because the dow is typically a laggard. We will see.

TLT Calls

I have an order for the Jan 22nd $90 calls at $3.00. Gonna see if they get hit today. This is a great entry for these options.

Good Read

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-hussman-rips-apart-cnbc

Dow Theory

Dow Theory states that anything below 10,725 is in the bear zone. So if we cannot close above this number then we are still in a bear market. Also the dow has gone up so much so fast it looks like it could break a steep trendline. Lets see what happens today.

BS

The bs continues. I have changed nothing.

Monday Gap? 3-08-10

Everybody is aware that most investors do their research on the weekends and place orders for Monday. This has been creating a gap up Monday phenomenon.

January 15-19 we had no gap up Monday we gapped down by 2 cents on the spy

January 22-25 we had a gap up of 50 cents on the spy

January 29- Feb 1 we had a gap up of $2.00 Dollars

February 5th- 8th we had a gap down of 80 cents

February 12th-16th we had a gap up of $1.74

February 19th- 22nd we had a gap up of 2 cents

February 26th- march 1st we had a gap up of 40 cents

That brings me today. Could the retail investors have gone home this past weekend and spoke with their family about selling. This would be a shift in sentiment that could not be measured. I believe a gap down today could be telling us something. Especially with the strength in Asia last night.

Earth Quakes

What in the hell is up with all the earth quakes. If someone can point to a time in history when we have had so many earthquakes i will send you a check for $20 bucks.

Short earth quake insurance companies. $5 dollar stop profit target $15.

Draw down

Draw downs are a part of trading. Being a good market timer is something that takes years of practice. Currently my timing has always been to early on shorting and to early on taking profits. Friday was probably my largest draw down. The feeling of bearishness on friday was unnerving. Thoughts of, could you be wrong definitely swirl through your head. Am i gonna go broke with this short position? Should i switch and go long?

This market is going to correct. When it decides to take out the lows in february it could get pretty nasty.

Short

Currently the account is short

Spy
MT
AZO
BIDU

Long:

Spy Puts
FSLR Puts
TLT
UUP
VXX

It is funny how much insider selling is going on today. It feels as if the bulls are shooting their loads today.

BIDU

Shorting BIDU at $517.60

AZO

Shorting AZO at $166.68

TLT

I own some January 2011 $90 calls and with TLT going down in price the last couple of days the value of the calls has been going up. This is a bullish divergence in my book.

Nasdaq Selling pressure

This courtesy of sentimentrader.com

China and HSI

Both of them sold off pretty hard last night. China is tightening or clamping down with new types of regulations on bank lending. Today could be very interesting.

Some of these triple short ETF's look like they want to break out.

The Euro

I really think everyone has became super bullish on the Euro. This is setting up for an extreme blow off top in US equities. I am pretty short now and have a few longs. Currently the portfolio is 100% short and 15% long. (Using Margin)

Will look to add more UUP, TLT, and VXX on any weakness tomorrow.

I really hate BIDU and lost about $10,200 on puts. So i am out of the trade and have a new respect for this stock. This morning small trades pushed this premarket open to $511-$512 area. Then the real market makers tried to fill the gap from the previous days close. The big boys stepped in and then sold the stock. I am going on record that BIDU never trades higher than it did on Monday. Also i am looking at shorting the hell out of this thing tomorrow on any strength.

Also i am still short MT.

Suckers Rally

Today was a retail investor rally. Some people/investors are going to get hurt real bad. We are at an extreme on less volume and declineing MACD. I have been short the spy since $111.50 and hold a nice size position in VXX.

Very Little Reason

There seems to be very little reason for stocks to go down. This is really starting to worry me.

MT

Shorting MT here at $40.91

Long Short Deflation Inflation

I find it fascinating how many experts can have so many differing opinions. I think it would be better to put a time frame when an opinion is given.

China PMI

http://safehaven.com/article-15966.htm

$3,000 rebate

Don't we already have this rebate? I know that i received a large tax credit for my solar installation and $1500 credit for new a/c. It isn't a rebate i know ,but what really is the difference.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35673393

GOOG

Shorting GOOG here at $542.90, $545 stop looking for $538 day trade

Clearing 25% TLT

I am clearing some of my TLT which i just recieved a dividend for and purchasing some VXX. I am not purchasing the entire lot here. Will place some ladder orders.

AZO

It looks like it is forming a false upside break out

Stunned

I am stunned at the market currently. This has been very tough to time and trade. Would not be buying equities here. One thing i have noticed is how crude oil has been a leading indicator. If we can't get a new high in crude i would be very worried about this rally.

Inetresting Article

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35639493

One quick note

This hot off the press
http://pragcap.com/insider-selling-hits-new-2010-high

Now this hot off the press
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35619902

Tracking insider buying and selling has been a great market timing tool. Unless you do it yourself then you may read these articles and get the wrong idea. There are tons of free services that will send you this data.

The insider selling for all of 2010 has outpaced buying by roughly 10 billion. So whoever wrote that piece for CNBC should get canned.

Gap up Monday Again

Just read a lot of economic data. It isn't pretty but we are still up. Today i will be traveling so when the market closes this is what i am focusing on.

Does GDX have a strong day compared to GLD

Does the market rally along with TLT rallying.

Does the $VIX close outside its 2 standard deviations.

Then at the end of the day look at the technicals for the $SPX, $DJI, $COMPX. Looking at the MACD and MACD lines. Also studying the volume.

Then finally looking at the 10-day NYSE advanced decline line, to see how overbought we are.

I am as short as i want to be and will do very little today.

Really Good Article

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15932.htm

Cattle

I am leaving for Nicaragua again on Monday. I will be there for the next 6 months. During this time i am focusing on my farm. My wife and I are going to buy cattle. Mostly Brahma bull and cows. Some interesting facts were in the New York times.


Live cattle reached an all time high of 4,045.16 cents per a pound.

Live cattle reached an all time low of 81.95 cents per a pound.

Friday the closing price for live cattle was 91.57 cents per a pound.

If you don't own farm land you should. In fact, I think purchasing farm land and raising cattle could be very profitable.

Gap up Mondays

There is definite theme of gap up Mondays. It very reliable and i believe a crowded trade. If we gap down this Monday it could be just enough fire power to push us lower.

Bank of America

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-gaming-government-loan-guarantees

There is an unvelievable artice from http://www.zerohedge.com/ . The article explains the banks current bad loans over the past year. Look at the chart then read the article.

The Vix

This no risk attitude is going to punish some investors. The vix is once again below 20.

Buying more VXX

Buying some more VXX

I have a couple of bullets left on the short side. I have been short since Wednesday and seen my profit erode right before my eyes. Lets see if the bulls can push past the highs for the week. I have decided that if BIDU doesn't open and close lower by Monday i will cut my losses on the trade. OUCH!

It sure does feel lonely here being short.

Take note:

How well the Bonds are doing, it looks as if the dollar found support and how the semi conductor index looks weak. Also GDX and GLD look as if they are barely hanging on. Gonna go and get a nice coffee. Maybe a double triple skinny fat soy latte.

By the Rumor Sell the News

Nothing is 100% but waiting for the number to come out for GDP then going short should be a good game plan. I hope the number is good. I believe we need good news for this market to go down.

There is a lot of talk about why we went up yesterday. All i can say is the market is always right.

Amazed once again

The bulls have been winning and the technicals are sickly. Nobody wanted to be short before GDP tomorrow. So short covering started at the open. Then the late party shorts showed up and they are what squeezed us higher.

As for a gap tomorrow who knows. It sure does feel like the rest of the world is looking at our economic data more than we are. Last night on CNBC the Asian economist were really talking about the bad housing numbers.

Some of my fills today were at the top ticks.

Maybe those asian economist will be talking about our great "Jobs Numbers." O yeah the jobs numbers were bad because of the weather.

Bonds traded nicely all day today and once again the vix is showing extreme complancy in this market. Good luck to all the longs out there.

Gettem all sucked in

I can just see the dollar signs. The strong hands are pushing this thing around nothing has changed. Using this opportunity to buy VXX.

Purchasing more VXX

Tons of divergences here

Watch GDX and USO

Successfull auction

Looks like our debt is being bought.

30 year mortgage rates

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35582486

It is all about interest rates.

GLD and GDX

Do not buy them here. It is a giant trap, they are trying to suck in the weak hands thinking that they can hide in Gold. It would be a lot better to wait and see if we can get GLD around $104. Same with oil and other precious metals. This down pressure is not done if anything try and pick a nice place to get short the market today.

You have been warned!

Selling USO puts

Selling USO puts for a nice little gain

Market Update 2-24-10

All in all the market is in another topping pattern. These aren't easy to time ,but some things to keep in mind. If we go down Thursday and Friday of this week then we have Mutual Fund Monday. We have a full moon on Sunday which means we should go long on Monday.

Monthly Charts- Fairly typical formation of a top

Weekly Charts- The power of Bulls is extremely weak, and HORRENDOUS bearish divergence is forming

Daily Chart- We have a tick down on the MACD and Force index on Wednesday. If today Thursday their is an up day i will open a large short position.

Currently i am still long:
UUP
TLT
VXX
BGZ
BIDU Puts
ISRG Puts
USO Puts

Short:
Spy
RIMM

Funny

Isn't funny how we have had 6 up days and one serious down day and everyone is a bull.

Shorting the Spy

We have a huge intraday divergence here. Going to short spy at $110.6, $111.2 stop,,looking for $110.00

Also purchasing VXX at $26.77

Bonds look good

Gold is weak

GDX weak

Semi's look strong

Short AAPL

Gonna short AAPL here at $200.4, $201 stop and $198 target

Everything is A-OK

Well the sentiment is now bullish again. Yesterday we were falling off a cliff and now we are heading straight to 11,000. This is getting really comical. The strong hands are sucking investors in only to push out or through their stops in the coming weeks. Unless you are quick on the draw and actively manage your account i couldn't possibly buy equities here. Most of them have doubled and the insiders are selling them more and more each week.

My unofficial Blog indicator is Bullish.

Gold and GDX are down with the Dollar. Not normal.

China and Markets

The market yesterday was very strong.

The rest of the Asian markets were fairly weak. Currently Europe is trading firm but by no means strong. Gold is Down and so is Oil, the dollar index is trading at $80.73. The Euro is up fractionally also.

Some of the things i think are important are the headlines. China is telling it banks to limit loans to governments. This is a deflationary action. Also the treasury stated last night they will be removing liquidity from the system.

If we do get some kind of bounce i will look to exit my SD energy play.

The trend has changed and i am shorting rallies instead of buying dips.

BIDU

clearing it here for a $1.00

TLT

Looks like it wants $91.00 today really bad.

Day Trade

Shorting BIDU here at $502.

TLT

Man bonds are on fire today.

The dollar

It is really strong here.

I am purchasing the $90 september TLT calls

Market

Still there is complacency. There sure is a lot of buzz about bloom energy. This could have a negative effect on oil in my opinion. I have decided to purchase USO $40 puts the march. Then if something crazy happens i can at least know what my downside is.

The GLD is holding pretty strong and the GDX is weak.

SMH is looking pretty weak

Banks are pretty strong.

This dip could have been a buying opportunity. We will see.

USO

Closing USO short for a small gain

Why was Europe weak

When on turned on CNBC this morning the European indices were all in the green. Then the German Confidence number came out and the selling began. This was a hint into what may happen in the United States. I am now looking for the next catalyst which may take us lower.

SD

Buying Sandridge energy. They report numbers on the 25th and believe we could get a run up into the report.

SD at $8.28

GLD

Clearing GLD short for a scalp

CCI

That is the lowest CCI reading i have seen in months.

Consumer Confidence

Nobody wants to be short before the number. Expect heavy selling after the number comes out.

Still Short

I am still short going into today. Watching GLD and USO. They are both showing some weakness and i believe they will play out. Longer term i am bullish on both of these funds.

Currently Long
VXX
BGZ
EDZ
TLT
UUP
BIDU Put (Freaking Killing me)
ISRG Puts

Currently Short
GLD
USO

I am skewed very heavy on the short side going into today. Even if we finish up i will be very skeptical about closing my positions. Currently the market is being controlled by the strong and staying the course is going to be tough. If one was to look at the portfolio as a whole my market timing has been pretty bad. GLD and USO yesterday may have been a nice entry we will see.

While i am writing this Home Depot reported earnings. This news has done little to effect the Futures.

China

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-chinese-malls-tell-us-about-the-economic-reality-3662.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27s+Narrative%29

Very interesting article above.

Yesterday was a bearish day in my opinion. The internals were very weak. The amount of "No risk here thinking" is actually comical.

Closing SPY short

Closing spy short for $.30 cents.

BIDU

Closing this out for a gain of $1.25. Currently i am on margin and i own puts on this also. No reason to double dip.

Would expect GLD to sell off a little harder on this move down.

ISRG

Buying a small portion of the $320 march puts. The insiders have been selling this and with health care costs a debate this guy could take a hair cut.

They are priced at $1.95 each

SPG

Would highly recommend shorting spg here. I would but i am stretched pretty thin on the short side over 100%

VXX

Is now trading outside its 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band. Investors are very complacent here.

Weakness

There is some wekaness in the dollar and the Gold Bulls and Oil bugs can't keep the upward movement going. I am going to short USO 25% and GLD 25% here and see if we can get a couple of points.

Short GLD at $109.3

Short USO at $39.06

RIMM

Has a very nice bearish divergence on the daily and weekly. It got a little oversold intraday and will hope we get a gap for tomorrow. This will be a nice short tomorrow.

SPY

Shorting the spy at $111.32, $111.6 stop looking for $109

BIDU

Gonna short BIDU at $506.89 stop at $509, Target is $400 lets see if she gets there

VXX

Buying some VXX at $26.89

USO

Feel like the odds of being long oil are very good long term but short term they could correct. Iran is the variable and crude could open up $10-$20 dollars on any negative comments.

This being a variable i would rather look to buy crude on any pull back than short or take long a position at this level.

Good Chance of a Squeeze

There is a good chance we squeeze higher today.

BIDU

Damnit!

Unofficial Indicator

Well Jim Rogers is bearish, this has been a great indicator for timing the bottom of the dollar. He is now bearish on global equities including China.

We are extremely overbought here. The Rydex traders are making bearish bets and the dumb money is 54% confident in the rally. Insider selling reached an extremely high reading last week. Also we have bearish news from Australia and China, with Australia looking to raise interest rates and China raising reserve requirements.

All in all I am bearish and about 50% short through VXX. Will look to time BGZ and EDZ this week.

China

China's central bank raised banks' required reserves and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its discount rate after the market closed for last week's Lunar New Year holiday.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened nearly flat at 3,016.703 points compared with 3,018.133 at the close on Feb. 12, the last trading day ahead of the break. It then slipped as much as 0.46 percent before rising 0.28 percent to the morning's peak of 3,026.659.

The market's relatively flat opening reassured overseas markets that had been spooked by China's reserve ratio hike, with Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index rising 2.4 percent in early trade while its China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese stocks was up 2.50 percent.

The Shanghai-listed A shares of top lender Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped 0.20 percent, while Bank of Communications (BoCom) was down 0.85 percent.

My opinion

Really think that the current market is being controlled by strong hands. They are sucking in the weak and simply taking their money. Looking at the market, then thinking about where we are and then thinking where are we going. Is shooting straight to DOW 11,000 an option. This I would place a 10% bet on. The strong hands want to buy this market just not at this level. We need to go lower before we can go higher. This can be seen with the Dumb money indicator and insider buying.

How low is not the question. When fear is rampant and the $VIX is close to 40 then it will time to buy. Until then I will attempt to short and get stopped out over and over again.

If it is worth anything please RETRACE BIDU. You are really starting to piss me off.

Reminder

If you haven't seen this already take a look.

http://video.pbs.org/video/1218530801/

Second thoughts

Having second thought is normal ,but extremely frustrating. As of right now i am having extreme doubt on my BIDU position. i have allocated about $10,000 to this position and it has been cut in half. Driving home last night i almost threw up in disgust with my self over the position. I have broken every single one of my trading rules, moving stops, buying more etc... So now i am left with the question of what to do.

Going to make a list of why to own BIDU and why to Sell short BIDU right now.

Go long or Own BIDU
1. Little or no competition with Google pulling out of china
2. Very good end of year and quarterly report
3. Making a new trading range
4. No insider selling
5. Low shares outstanding
6. Stock split rumor.
7. Above its weekly and daily moving averages
8. Very strong MACD lines on the daily lines

Shorting BIDU
1. Google could work out problems in China
2. Yahoo and Microsoft are applying for Asia search approval
3. It trades at an extreme multiple
4. Has decreasing volume on this new high
5. Decreasing weekly MACD and Daily MACD histogram readings
6. Closed outside its weekly Bolinger Band
7. SOHU is slowly gaining market share
8. A new high was made on the weekly with a lower RSI reading
9. It is extremely overbought.
10. MACD histogram has been slowly decreasing while the stock is making new highs
11. Like any other industry Internet search is going to lose pricing power with competition.

BIDU

Who in thier right mind would want to own this stock as an investment? It must be for the growth.

The competition in pay for search is going to be pretty intense in the next couple of years. I just can't believe that this stock is trading at this multiple. It is amazing.